The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jun 14, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
I was curious
So I graphed percent of CONUS in drought according to the US drought monitor, data is weekly from 1/2000
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx
Here from US EPA is the same data by drought category
epa.gov/climate-indica…
And here from EPA is a longer time series, 1895-2020 for CONUS
Note: On this graph up means wetter, down means dryer
epa.gov/climate-indica…
And here is the percent in drought (D0-D4) of the Colorado River Basin over Jan 2000 to present
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx
And here is Colorado River Basin drought 1901-2015
via McCabe et al 2020
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
And for a much longer perspective, here is Colorado River Basin drought over the past 1800 years
Also from McCabe et al 2020
TL;DR
Here are the conclusions of McCabe et al 2020
Well worth reading carefully
And here is what the US National Climate Assessment concluded on drought in 2018
nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/
PS
A side note
For accurately citing peer reviewed literature & US NCA on drought trends in 2013 Congressional testimony, I earned the distinction of being the only US researcher in history to be attacked by the president's science advisor (Holdren) in a White House blog post 😎
PPS
Holdren is still wrong
The IPCC, USNCA & peer reviewed literature that they rely on is still correct

Climate change is real, and aggressive mitigation & adaptation policies make good sense

The reality of climate change doesn't mean scientific integrity can be ignored

/END
Oh, I guess I should point out Holdren's false claims about me posted on White House website were basis for a subsequent Congressional investigation of me that turned my life upside down & almost ended my career
But I'm still here
And that kids is how I came to understand tenure

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Nov 2
We’ve reached the point where an IPCC author is openly rejecting the conclusions of the IPCC out of concern over how their political opposition is correctly interpreting the AR6

The integrity of the IPCC on extreme events is now under attack
The IPCC explains that a trend in a particular variable is DETECTED if it is outside internal variability and judged with >90% likelihood

For most (not all) metrics of extreme weather detection has not been achieved

That’s not me saying that, but IPCC AR6 Image
The IPCC also assesses that for most (but not all) metrics of extreme weather the signal of a change in climate will not emerge from internal variability with high confidence (ie, >90%) by 2050 or 2100, even assuming the most extreme changes under RCP8.5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 31
🧵
You won't believe this

The US National Academy of Sciences has a new study committee on Extreme Event Attribution

Among its sponsors are the Bezos Earth Fund and Robert Litterman

Who are they? . . . Image
Image
The Bezos Earth Fund sponsors World Weather Attribution, an advocacy group promoting the connection of weather events w/ fossil fuels in support of press coverage & lawsuits

Robert Litterman is on the board of Climate Central which founded WWA & collaborates on climate advocacy Image
The fact that a NAS committee is funded by political advocates is crazy enough

But that is not all

On the committee itself are individuals from two climate advocacy groups

One . . . the Union of Concerned Scientists which is working to use attribution to support lawsuits . . . Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 18
1/3

Climate science is broken

I provided PNAS with irrefutable evidence that a paper it published used a fatally flawed “dataset” compiled by interns for corporate marketing

I asked for a retraction

PNAS investigated & found no problems at all with the dataset

The PNAS reply belowImage
Image
I documented how the “dataset” was created (including contributions of two of my former students)

It was never intended for scientific research, just for selling insurance products

In the next Tweet I’ll link to my post with all of the details

If climate science cannot pass this simple test, it has a serious problemImage
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23
I have been digging into methodological and data errors in Grinsted et al. 2019, some of which you can see in the thread below

This nerdy thread on US hurricane loss data documents how bad data gets created (surely accidentally) . . .
A time series of base (i.e., current-year) loses was first compiled from annual reports published in the Monthly Weather Review by Chris Landsea in 1989 for 1949-1989

I extended the data using same methods to 1996

Chris and I extended back to 1900 for Pielke and Landsea 1998 Image
Then, Pielke et al. 2008 extend the dataset to 2005, again using the same methods

The heavy lifting was done by my then-student Joel Gratz

Joel graduated and went to an insurance company called ICAT . . . Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
Last month I revealed based on files part of the public record of the Michael Mann trial how Mann coordinated peer review of a paper of mine to ensure that it "would not see the light of day"

I only had a snippet of the relevant Mann email

Now I have the whole thing

And JFC... Image
First
New: the editor of GRL, Jay Familigetti, originally sent our submission to Mann!

That's right
A paper by Pielke & @ClimateAudit was sent to Mann to peer review

Mann wisely didn't accept but instead recommended hostile reviewers so that "it would not see the light of day" Image
@ClimateAudit Mann emails his partners Caspar Amann (NCAR) and Gavin Schmidt (NASA) to express his glee that this gives him an opportunity to cause harm

"Pielke Jr has finally made his bed!!" Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 20
🧵
"The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s"

Take that 645 miles/year to the next Tweet...

gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/upl…
The US has 240,000 miles of high voltage transmission capacity

An expansion of 645 miles/year is just about 0.3%/yr

Take that 0.3%/year HV grid expansion to the next Tweet
The Princeton study (@JesseJenkins) used to promote the Inflation Reduction Act claimed the HV grid has been expanding at a rate of 1% per year based on a newsletter from JP Morgan

That 1% is >3x greater than actual recent grid expansion rates of 0.3%

repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_IR…
Image
Read 7 tweets

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