1 like = 1 hot take.

I feel like I do this every time I 2x in followers lol, and I haven't been cancelled yet
1. The online left seems to have gotten too wedded to the idea of using intuitive morality as a bludgeon. Actually thinking about why you believe what you believe is important
2. The only reasonable medium term solution to the housing crisis is to legalize housing construction
3. Charitable deductions should be eliminated
4. The 71% of emissions are emitted by just 100 companies meme is the worst thing to ever touch lefty spaces
5. The correct solution to the pandemic was a total lockdown in the early days for a couple weeks, or failing that a total lockdown later for a month or two. trying to balance economic concerns *at all* was a complete disaster
6. Small businesses are often much worse than big businesses
7. The special deferential status afforded to religion over other things (religious beliefs > normal beliefs, religious practice > hobbies) is really bad and needs to go away
8. Most media in our society is incredibly oversaturated with relationships and the expectation that people always need to be in relationships
9. The CA water crisis is only important insofar as it affects the environment (causing fires etc). CA uses most of it's water for frivolous stuff that we wouldn't miss if it disappeared (lawns & cash crops)
10. Basically nothing politicians do can speed up or slow educational polarization. It's a broader cultural phenomenon
11. Vaccines were always going to be politically polarized. But masks didn't have to be
12. Lazy conspiracism does occur on the left, and it's bad when it happens
13. Pseudoscience often has long term negative effects and should be combated before you start seeing the negative effects
14. If we fix climate changes worst effects and end up with like a median scenario, oil and gas will be a net positive for humanity in the long run
15. Work is fulfilling to some people and not to others. Trying to enforce a dignity of work is bad
16. Banning inheritance is one of the easiest meritocracy and justice wins that can be done
17. Private colleges should expand their capacity by 10x or more
18. All people should learn the basics of programming (at least excel level) in high school
19. Integral calculus should not be taught beyond the basics (cut trig substitution, integration by parts, etc). These days we basically use tabular for everything
20. Nobody ever uses long division, we shouldn't teach it
21. Educational, racial, and rural/urban polarization are big, but the South is also more conservative than the north on top of all of that
22. Justice and revenge are basically just the more and less respectable way to refer to the same concept
23. Empathy is a terrible foundation for a moral system. Moral intuitions can in general be very bad
24. There is never a reason to vote for a candidate you expect to get 3rd place or lower in any fptp election
25. Younger people being more pro socialist has nothing to do with them being young and everything to do with them being born post cold war, so they'll stay that way as they age
26. Leftists and liberals overemphasize historical correlates and reasoning for modern inequity, to the point where like modern anti asian racism is viewed as a direct extension of pre 1965 anti asian racism, when in practice the connection isn't super strong
27. The "working class" has like 7 definitions, and if you take the union of all of them, you end up with 99% of the country. The term is useless at this point and you should just say the specific definition you mean
28. "People who sign the check on the front" vs "People who sign the check on the back" remains a far better way to define class than most definitions out there
29. Educational polarization is neither secretly class polarization nor is it "smart = lib". It's a complex and multifaceted situation that is too often caricatured
30. Racial depolarization is probably good for the country, even if it hurts the democrats short term chances
31. Property tax exemptions should not exist. Schools, colleges, hospitals, etc should just be funded directly, and churches and nonprofits should just have to pay.
32. Eminent domain is good actually
33. AI risk is basically entirely fictitious. The real issues with AI are not existential threats at all
34. Leftists and more radical liberals need to develop the ability to see good policies on the merits that are not explicitly phrased in terms of equity
35. Moderates and moderate liberals need to look past the boilerplate about equity that's used to win over leftists and radlibs to see if they actually like a policy on the merits
36. The US needs to stop doing nonsense like getting Lula thrown out in Brazil. In general, the outcome is a disaster
37. Both Jeremy Corbyn and Kier Starmer are bad for the same reason: they refuse to differentiate Labor from the Tories on the issues of greatest salience to voters
38. The recall process is not actually too easy to trigger in California. the cost isn't actually that high. You all actually like having an election and are just lying
39. Vaccine challenge trials are a no brainer and should be done
40. Political polarization has both positive and negative effects, but people focus almost exclusively on the negatives due to status quo bias
41. Pears are bad that's it that's the take
42. Salted chocolate is an elaborate gaslighting scheme I refuse to believe anyone actually enjoys it
43. Process is way overemphasized over outcome in a lot of settings. Outcomes are what actually matters, so when possible we should measure and regulate outcomes, not processes
44. There will be a reinansance in automated/interactive theorem proving over the next couple decades driven by the integration of machine learning into the proof pipeline
45. Tradition is bad. Even worse than pears
46. 100% of "social media bad" takes are complete nonsense. Yes, even the one you're thinking of as the exception
47. Maps that attempt to show a statistical trend but do not normalize by population should be banned. I support a change to the first amendment to allow this
48. Logarithmic scales should never be used in public communication
49. Norcal/socal as a divide really only applies to the Coast. California has 4 regions, norcal (bay area + north central coast), socal (SB/greater LA/SD/inyo), central valley, and northeast CA (rest)
50. An ideal electoral system for executives is an RCV primary selecting like 6 candidates, then an RCV where people pick the candidates they least like to eliminate them
51. Murkowski is going to get squeezed out of the top 2 in AL-Sen 2022
52. Even if prosecutors don't think they can convict trump, they should at least drag him into court a bunch. It will really ruin the next couple years of his life if he has to constantly be in court on trial
53. The US should admit Puerto Rico, DC, Guam, and Canada as states
54. The people who are really mad about mask mandates going on a bit too long are overreacting because they want to do an bothsides equivalence. Thats my only explanation because I cannot imagine someone actually being that mad at a mask
55. Covid probably had in aggregate no effect on the 2020 election
56. There is no rationally consistent way to be anti abortion (yes even pro choice/anti abortion) and not vegan
57. A humanities education does not make you better at thinking than a stem education. The fact that many of the big pandemic cranks were humanities folks should be a wakeupcall to this.
58. There's no strong evidence that internal polls are actually more reliable or provide a ceiling on a candidates performance. everyone on this site takes them far too seriously
59. 99% of real analysis is just useless pedantry. It's *fun* useless pedantry and can build mathematical intuition, but the folks who say it's somehow crucial for probability are completely wrong
60. Status quo bias is really bad and we all need to combat it. A lot of people make excuses for it like "oh well people are used to X etc". It's fine from like a strategic standpoint, but when devising your own views, try to correct for it
61. Borrego Springs is a top 5 place to visit in California
62. Straw bans are dumb, and should be undone
63. Carbon taxes should be given back in direct dividends to ensure that they're not regressive and to ensure that they do not appear regressive
64. There's no fundamental difference between giving someone a handout and allowing someone to do a job whose societal externalities are negative
65. Theft should be treated as a crime which should only be pursued to the breakeven point, and even then not all the way (transfers are less bad than burning resources)
66. Most of the problem with debate is actually just about the medium. Text based correspondence debates are great and often v illuminating
67. Cryptocurrency should be entirely banned. It is a speculative instrument with negative social value
68. Most anti anti theism consists of arguments substantially worse than the average anti theist argument
69. Urbanization will begin to reverse sometime in the next few decades as wfh becomes more common
70. Social engineering is good actually, there's no reason to think the "natural" state of society is optimal or even particularly safe

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More from @notkavi

19 Jun
OK so inspired by @lxeagle17's recent demographic regressions, here's the @bot_2024 model run using 2020 demographics and partisanship by demographic, but using midterm turnout numbers ImageImageImage
As you can see, 2018 turnout is very favorable for democrats, while 2014 turnout is about neutral to 2020. Strangely enough, 2010 turnout does well for democrats, presumably because of suburban/exurban surge vs wwc
Looking at presidential years, we can see that our model believes 2012 and 2016 actually had more favorable turnout profiles than 2020 when considering 2020 partisanship, by about 1 point in both cases ImageImageImage
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