Thread by @spacanpanman

1/ $ASTS @AST_SpaceMobile: Invest in the Space Mobile Provider that Will Disrupt the Entire Wireless Industry.

A Different Perspective on What's Really at Stake. Mega thread Below.

2/ $ASTS has created the first and only patented protected, space-based cellular broadband network that can provide coverage across the entire globe.

Service is compatible with all +5B mobile phones in use today featuring 4G & 5G data speeds with low latency.

3/ $ASTS wireless carriers that work with AST will enjoy absolute and unparalleled cell coverage - a game changing advantage that will redefine the competitive landscape.

4/ $ASTS technology has been validated through the successful launch and service test with BlueWalker-1 satellite in 2019. +$100M capital raised from strategic investors including Vodafone, Rakuten, Samsung, and American Tower

5/ $ASTS another $230M in private funding round led by the same strategic investors at $10 per share, in addition to +$232M in IPO funding gives AST over $420M net cash to fully fund Phase 1 launch in 2022.

6/ $ASTS binding, mutually exclusive commercial agreements covering 800M subscribers w/ Vodafone, AT&T and Rakuten. 500M additional subscribers on non-exclusive basis with Telefonica, Indosat, Telecom Argentina, Telstra, Tigo, and Liberty LatAm.

7/ $ASTS has built an insurmountable competitive advantage w/ +1,000 patent claims, 161 space scientists & engineers w/ 40 prior satellite builds/launches.

Industry-leading strategic partners/investors with deep tech moat and customer base.

8/ $ASTS launch of 20 satellites in 2022 w/ commercial service beginning in 2023. Phase 1 cash flow along with other non-dilutive financing sources will support Phase 2, Phase 3 and Phase 4 launches.

9/ $ASTS will be the kingmaker in the wireless market, creating clear winners (its partners) and losers.

$ASTS signed mutually exclusive contracts with Vodafone, AT&T and Rakuten to build a competitive tension and then expanded its growing partnerships more broadly.

10/ $ASTS can negotiate partnerships with a single wireless carrier in each region, generating more attractive economics.

Carriers that work with AST will drive substantial CapEx savings by reducing the need to buildout network coverage, especially in rural areas.

11/ $ASTS The competitive landscape in the US wireless market may be forever changed by AST.

If AT&T offers customers 100% 5G Global Coverage, how can Verizon & T-Mobile compete?

12/ How will Verizon keep its premium pricing by advertising "America's 2nd best network for coverage"?

Coverage and reliability are the lifeblood of wireless carriers.

13/ $ASTS Verizon and T-Mobile already feel pressure and are actively voicing concern and opposition to the FCC claiming that SpaceMobile's satellites may interfere with their networks.

tinyurl.com/yaldccd7

14/ $ASTS enterprise values of $408B for Verizon and $285B for T-Mobile, there's a lot of value to protect!

AT&T also had much to lose: it committed to US Gov to build FirstNet, the US public safety network for disasters.

AST eliminates the need for FirstNet!

15/ $ASTS American Tower, the largest cell tower co. in the world at $123B EV, is increased its investment at $10/share.

This is a hedge for the AMT because AST's tech could be an existential threat to cell tower industry.

16/ $ASTS partnering with wireless carriers through a rev share model provides immediate access to customers and removes need for marketing, customer acquisition and backhaul costs.

AST projects 9M subs in 2023 growing to 373M in 2027 (153% CAGR)

17/ $ASTS 2027 projections represent under 30% of current potential subscriber base.

Revenue projected to grow rapidly from $181M in 2023 to $9.6B in 2027 (170% CAGR) with modest global ARPU assumption of $2.15 by 2027.

18/ $ASTS significant operating leverage will accelerate profitability once satellite constellation is launched & operational.

+$1B EBITDA by 2024, only 1 year into commercial service.

EBITDA margins to expand rapidly and reach +90% in steady state.

19/ $ASTS $16.3B of unlevered free cashflow by 2030, leaving capital for reinvestments and R&D to expand service and extend market leadership.

AST could institute a sizeable dividend comfortably beginning in 2024.

20/ $ASTS is valued at 1.4x 2024E EBITDA @ $10. Using peer multiples of the following:

Wireless Infrastructure Providers $AMT 22.2x and $CCI 22.7x would support a $100 price

Legacy Satellite Communications $IRDM 14.0x would support a $75 price

21/ $ASTS Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Scotia and other banks attended the company's analyst day in January. We should be getting research coverage initiations soon. This note from Scotia will give you a flavor of what to expect:

22/ $ASTS is the only Low Earth Orbit satellite co that will provide space-based cellular coverage to your unmodified handset. It's NOT competing with Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper or Lightspeed. See below:

23/ $ASTS so how does the tech work? It's understandable AST wants to keep its tech secret. Digging around FCC docket gives you a great understanding of how the technology works.

24/ $ASTS pretty fascinating science behind the technology Abel / AST has developed. The company has over 1,000 patent claims ... would be interesting to see some of the trade secrets that aren't reviewable for the public.

25/ $ASTS has ramped up hiring with a primary focus on engineers. The company's engineering talent is very impressive when you review some of the profiles on linkedin. Headcount continues to grow rapidly at the company.

26/ $ASTS is also part of the FCC's NPRM for the $9B 5G fund. With the support of 7 senators and AT&T, AST is the most effective way for the US to meet goal of providing 5G access across rural America. AST will also bolster FirstNet for first responders in emergencies.

27/ $ASTS Hear directly from some of the company's partners on why they are working with AST. Also a due diligence review from a former Terrestar engineer, David Marshak:

https://twitter.com/spacanpanman/status/1400645331717603330?s=20

28/ $ASTS really want to dig in? I was fortunate enough to attend a meeting with Abel Avellan, CEO of AST during their investor roadshow. My notes are posted here on this reddit:

reddit.com/r/SPACs/commen…

29/ $ASTS Deutsche Bank first out of the gate initiating coverage with BUY and $35 PT. Very well research and balanced report highlighting many risks along with potential upside opportunity of $190 per share.

Full report here: kookreport.com

30/ $ASTS Some skeptics point to high launch costs as a barrier for AST's 2 ton satellites. Satellite launch costs have fallen 90% since 2008 and are expected to drop rapidly given all the new entrants coming to market. Relativity highlights this in their last funding deck:

31/ $ASTS just released this video showcasing how the technology works. Worth watching this 9m clip 👍

32/ $ASTS CatSE on Reddit explaining the @AST_SpaceMobile’s patent for unfolding its Bluebird satellite’s large aperture. Love the technical expertise we have in the #spacemob community! reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobi…

33/ $ASTS @HennessyFunds Q2 writeup on their investment in AST. “… $AMT management, in our experience, has been exceptional at identifying the flaws in emerging wireless technologies, so their decision to invest in AST made us take notice.” hennessyfunds.com/insights/portf…

34/ $ASTS Q2 2021 Business Update:

https://twitter.com/spacanpanman/status/1427486500506292224?s=20

35/ $ASTS "Microns are joined together using snap deployment design and folded origami-style into a refrigerator-sized stack that passively unfurls in space using industry-standard stored energy hinges." - Quilty

CatSE found this similar mechanism: