Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 16, 2021 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@Drachinifel
@AC_NavalHistory
@ArmouredCarrier

So...individual human vertical envelopment in the maritime, amphibious, & urban combat environment is a near term thing.

What can a section of Marines debarking a Merlin onto 200kg hoverboards below the radar horizon at 20km do?
Nor are squadies the only payload these multicopter "lift rings" can move around.

The Ukrainian “Thunder” loitering drone recce-ammunition uses the lift ring staging concept to lift it's munition and then acts as a radio relay
naturasigorta.com/ukrainian-loit…
Conceptually, staged drones are a partially disposable form of air to air refueling.

This reusable multi-copter staged munition drone concept certainly makes a USS Unicorn style VTOL aircraft & drone carrier a while lot more interesting.
An 3D/AM facility on a LHD for these 200kg payload reusable but expendable multi-copter lift rings has all sorts of fascinating power projection applications.
And there is no reason these multi-copter lift ring platforms couldn't be power tethered to your ship as a sensor "crows nest."

hoverflytech.com
Or in a complicated littoral high cruise missile threat war/not war environment like Lebanon or Yemen. You could have several powered Nulka but inactive sitting inside a multi-copter lift ring tethered fore & aft of your vessel for _DAYS_ in rotation

fas.org/man/dod-101/sy…
The ability of a multi-copter lift ring to support an ASW escorts simply by dropping sonar buoy's at the 2nd convergence zone plus acting as a radio relay for them to the surface ship escort can off load a whole lot of Merlin & MH-60R Seahawk flight hours prosecuting ASW contacts
This brings us back to the tethered multi-copter lift ring idea with a radio relay package to talk to sonarbuoy dropping package radio relay drone lift rings.

It will save cash compared to a 'every sonarbuoy a drone' concept.
The concept of a 21st Century naval armed guard with multi-copter lift ring UAV's has a lot of possibilities for convoy ASW sensors, weapons delivery and missile defense with tethered multi-copter lift ring Nulka decoys.

A 200 kg depth charge is -killer- in shallow waters SCS.
Ya think Bilge Pumps could chew some scenery discussing this?

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 28
I called out the Chinese invasion requirements for Taiwan in May 2023 complete with a prediction they would have to be building satellite detectable 1944 invasion of Normandy Mulberry style infrastructure.

Chinese JLOTS req'ts link⬇️
x.com/TrentTelenko/s…

1/ x.com/johnkonrad/sta…
And this is the link to my prediction of what later became their "Corvis Mulberry" shore connectors.

The prototypes for which were under construction when I made my May 2023 prediction.

2/
In that thread I connected classic "irrational regime" Chinese 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' as a behavior indicator of how they would view the world wide maritime trade and financial collapse invading Taiwan would cause as advantageous to China.

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Read 10 tweets
May 26
Ummm...no. @grok said 10K Truck Movements, not trucks.

A truck making two movements a day within 150 km of the Russian border for 30 days is 60 truck movements out of the 10K, or 0.6%.

@grok's estimate was based on mirror imaging Western Mechanized logistics.
Truck Intel🧵
1/
I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:

"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."

2/Image
And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:

"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."

3/Image
Read 10 tweets
May 25
This⬇️

>>In total, I have more than 100 mapped hits on russian logistical means.

...means a lot in terms of truck attrition.

100 killed out of a truck fleet of projected 2,500 on this route is 4% of the total.
1/
Ukrainian military intelligence estimated Kamaz made 15,000 trucks from Feb 2022 to early 2026.

Call that period 49 months, and that's a Truck production rate of 300 a month.

100 trucks killed in a couple of months is "normal wastage."


2/
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.

That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 23
This is another reminder that Peer-to-Peer drone warfare is all about attrition loss curves.

Ukraine's drones has made the roads of occupied southern Ukraine into an "anti-access area denial" (A2AD) kill zones for Russian trucks.
1/ Image
Ukraine has achieved "Drone air superiority" over those roads rivaling WW2's Summer 1944 Allied air superiority over German occupied Normandy.

As a result, the Russian truck fleet is taking unsustainable attrition, particularly of its fuel tanker fleet.
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This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is causing panic:

"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol. This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea."
3/
Read 5 tweets
May 22
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.

This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.

A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵

1/
Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:

1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**

2/ Image
2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck

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Read 19 tweets
May 21
Texas has seven unique advantages in terms of infrastructure, political culture, and resource geography that make it uniquely suited to be the next industrial heartland of the USA.

The seven industrial development advantages of Texas 🧵
1/
They are as follows:

1. About 94% of land in Texas is privately held. This vastly limits what the Federal, State and local governments can do to in terms of regulations and NIMBY games.

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2. Texas is mostly flat. Texas hill country is small beer compared to the Appalachian and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This compounds with #1 for industrial development.

3. Texas has a lot of water compared to the US west & sea access.

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Read 7 tweets

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