Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 16, 2021 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@Drachinifel
@AC_NavalHistory
@ArmouredCarrier

So...individual human vertical envelopment in the maritime, amphibious, & urban combat environment is a near term thing.

What can a section of Marines debarking a Merlin onto 200kg hoverboards below the radar horizon at 20km do?
Nor are squadies the only payload these multicopter "lift rings" can move around.

The Ukrainian “Thunder” loitering drone recce-ammunition uses the lift ring staging concept to lift it's munition and then acts as a radio relay
naturasigorta.com/ukrainian-loit…
Conceptually, staged drones are a partially disposable form of air to air refueling.

This reusable multi-copter staged munition drone concept certainly makes a USS Unicorn style VTOL aircraft & drone carrier a while lot more interesting.
An 3D/AM facility on a LHD for these 200kg payload reusable but expendable multi-copter lift rings has all sorts of fascinating power projection applications.
And there is no reason these multi-copter lift ring platforms couldn't be power tethered to your ship as a sensor "crows nest."

hoverflytech.com
Or in a complicated littoral high cruise missile threat war/not war environment like Lebanon or Yemen. You could have several powered Nulka but inactive sitting inside a multi-copter lift ring tethered fore & aft of your vessel for _DAYS_ in rotation

fas.org/man/dod-101/sy…
The ability of a multi-copter lift ring to support an ASW escorts simply by dropping sonar buoy's at the 2nd convergence zone plus acting as a radio relay for them to the surface ship escort can off load a whole lot of Merlin & MH-60R Seahawk flight hours prosecuting ASW contacts
This brings us back to the tethered multi-copter lift ring idea with a radio relay package to talk to sonarbuoy dropping package radio relay drone lift rings.

It will save cash compared to a 'every sonarbuoy a drone' concept.
The concept of a 21st Century naval armed guard with multi-copter lift ring UAV's has a lot of possibilities for convoy ASW sensors, weapons delivery and missile defense with tethered multi-copter lift ring Nulka decoys.

A 200 kg depth charge is -killer- in shallow waters SCS.
Ya think Bilge Pumps could chew some scenery discussing this?

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 12
Pres Zelenskyy of Ukraine just made an interesting statement:

"Let me give an example from yesterday, roughly like this: the Russians suffer about a thousand losses per day — that’s 500 killed and 500 wounded.

1/
I’m not even counting the 10 prisoners and so on. More precisely, 968 losses for Russia: 531 killed, 428 wounded, and 9 captured.

We had 340 losses in one day: 18 killed, 243 wounded, and 79 missing in action," he said."

2/
500 Russian KIA versus 18 Ukrainian KIA is a 29.5 to one ratio in favor of Ukraine.

Total Russian casualties of 1,000 versus 340 Ukrainian is a 2.9 to one ratio in favor of Ukraine.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
Actually, the Soviet Union in the "Great Patriotic War" did suffer worse casualties and win.

It is that fact which powers the "Russian WW2 exceptionalism" myth that Putin used to zombify Russians over 20 years to make suicidal assaults over and over again.

1/
I said something like what Chuck just said about Russian casualties in July 2024.

Chuck now, like I did then, underestimates how powerful cultural conditioning is in making armies able to take horrific losses and continue.

2/
As long a Putin's propaganda keeps Russians believing they are winning by taking miniscule slivers of Ukrainian land.

The Russians will keep coming.

It doesn't mean Russia will win. It means Russia is paying a disproportionate blood debt which will have to be paid.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 11
The map below underlines a real innumeracy issue with lots of Western analysts of Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign.

BLUF: 40,000/52 weeks is ~769 Ukrainian OWA drones launched a week on average for the whole year.

Ukrainian OWA Drone🧵
1/
Historic war mobilization production curves are heavily back loaded.

That is, the production rates of B-17's and B-24's bombers in the 3rd quarter of 1943 versus the 3rd quarter of 1944 showed a much higher production rate in late 1944.

2/ Image
Image
We are mid-way through the 3rd quarter of the 2025 where Ukraine's OWA drone annual production goal was 40,000.

Ukraine should be around 850-950 OWA drones a week in August 2025 and will be close to 1,200 a week in the 4th qtr. of the 2025.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
"Russian exceptionalism"⬇️

The Russians see themselves as immune to the consequences of their own actions.

The previous case studies in this were the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in WW2.

1/
Both polities had monumental hubris, the conviction that all was permitted, and that they were invincible.

The committed Nazis still believed they were winning in March-April 1945.

Japanese 'Yamato-damashii' beliefs took nukes to break.

2/ Image
Image
This Russian exceptionalist belief in the immunity to the consequences of their own actions is also why the Russians continue their insane suicidal assaults.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
What is interesting for me is that the pre-2022 Western intelligence assessments of the Russian Army credited it with lots of tactical pipelines to move fuel.

Those would be far more useful in moving water than trucks...yet...where are they?

1/
These pipelines seem to have fallen into that same logistical 'assume they exist but don't' black hole as Russian truck D-rings & pallets, tactical truck trailers, and Russia's "superior" tooth to tail ratio that acts more like 1863 Union Army where...

2/
..."every soldier is a logistical manual laborer when not in combat".

Water is heavy. Pipelines are more efficient that trucks. Yet all we are seeing is Russian water trucks?

Who stole the Russian Army tactical pipelines? Or were they nothing but disinformation?

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
Russia is showing signs of being at "end run production."

It has run out of serious motor transport & even the smallest scale we are seeing kludged together trailers to make ends meet.

Note also: Water bottles & potatoes are the high priority transport items⬇️

End run🧵
1/
While we are getting Western intelligence assessments that continue to point out Russia's vast increases in production of military materiel, especially tanks, IFVs and APCs (from the same people who claimed Russia would over run Ukraine in 3-to-5 days)

2/
...claiming Russia is "obviously winning."

We are at the same time seeing economic signs of Russian "End Run Production."

The Russian wartime economy is functioning hand to mouth with oil sales revenues because all of the foreign exchange reserves are spent or frozen.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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