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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jun 16, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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@Drachinifel
@AC_NavalHistory
@ArmouredCarrier

So...individual human vertical envelopment in the maritime, amphibious, & urban combat environment is a near term thing.

What can a section of Marines debarking a Merlin onto 200kg hoverboards below the radar horizon at 20km do?
Nor are squadies the only payload these multicopter "lift rings" can move around.

The Ukrainian “Thunder” loitering drone recce-ammunition uses the lift ring staging concept to lift it's munition and then acts as a radio relay
naturasigorta.com/ukrainian-loit…
Conceptually, staged drones are a partially disposable form of air to air refueling.

This reusable multi-copter staged munition drone concept certainly makes a USS Unicorn style VTOL aircraft & drone carrier a while lot more interesting.
An 3D/AM facility on a LHD for these 200kg payload reusable but expendable multi-copter lift rings has all sorts of fascinating power projection applications.
And there is no reason these multi-copter lift ring platforms couldn't be power tethered to your ship as a sensor "crows nest."

hoverflytech.com
Or in a complicated littoral high cruise missile threat war/not war environment like Lebanon or Yemen. You could have several powered Nulka but inactive sitting inside a multi-copter lift ring tethered fore & aft of your vessel for _DAYS_ in rotation

fas.org/man/dod-101/sy…
The ability of a multi-copter lift ring to support an ASW escorts simply by dropping sonar buoy's at the 2nd convergence zone plus acting as a radio relay for them to the surface ship escort can off load a whole lot of Merlin & MH-60R Seahawk flight hours prosecuting ASW contacts
This brings us back to the tethered multi-copter lift ring idea with a radio relay package to talk to sonarbuoy dropping package radio relay drone lift rings.

It will save cash compared to a 'every sonarbuoy a drone' concept.
The concept of a 21st Century naval armed guard with multi-copter lift ring UAV's has a lot of possibilities for convoy ASW sensors, weapons delivery and missile defense with tethered multi-copter lift ring Nulka decoys.

A 200 kg depth charge is -killer- in shallow waters SCS.
Ya think Bilge Pumps could chew some scenery discussing this?
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 5
The reduction in murder deaths -IS NOT- due to law enforcement, or reductions in underlying rates of violence.

It is due to the fact that medical care has improved such that the same gunshot wound inflicted in 2015 is 1/3 as lethal as 1960.

Murder rate🧵
1/
Homicide statistics since the early 1960s are not comparable to earlier periods because medical advances have turned many fatal injuries into survivable ones.

See the CDC report below⬇️


2/
There are four major medical trauma care changes since 1960 reducing murder rates:

1. Trauma centers established ~1961.

2. Standardized trauma procedures ~1978.

3. Adoption of military (Korea/Vietnam) emergency treatment, air transport, and improved triage ~1986.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 29
This passage:

"Lebanese security forces reportedly seized 1 truck last June carrying 5,000 explosive drones..."

...is the heart of why I say that the US Army & USMC ground troops will bleed heavily in their first real drone war.

Drone War🧵
Each of those 5,000 Hezbollah drones is individually far more lethal than a dumb 155mm shell, and a 5-ton truck can carry only 176 of them.

Each of those 5,000 drone can kill a truck carrying those 176 shells.

2/ Image
You simply can't hide from drones like you can from a shell.

It will follow you inside hard cover with a thermobaric warhead.

There is no safe space on the battlefield unless you build one with fishing nets and drone jammers.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 29
I'm tempted to say the difference between military flag ranks who are competent at 2026 peer to peer warfare, and those who are not, is the understanding and application of attritional loss curves to combat loss rates, electronic warfare and logistics.

Professional military education (PME)🧵
1/Image
The set of curves I had an AI produce for me above have been used for air warfare many times starting at the end of WW2, in the USSBS after WW2 and by many classic RAND airpower studies from the 1950's to 1980's.

2/ Image
All post 9/11/2001 Western flag ranks are counter-insurgency (COIN) trained & experienced.

They have no gut feel at all to statistical attrition models at all.

These "COIN-head" flags may prove to be highly resistant to changing this. Which is required to deal with drones.
2/Image
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 27
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.

The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
1/3
A US Army serious about drone warfare would:

- Rebuild the full EW enterprise with organic division-level EW battalions and real exercises.

- Embed EW jamming into all combat branches (not MI-only).

- Shift to gun/autocannon dominant combined-arms counter-drone doctrine.

2/3
- Require FAA drone pilot + Ham radio licenses for flag ranks to build drone domain literacy.

None of these four reforms will happen until after US Army soldiers are deep in both defeat and buckets of blood.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 26
It is extremely unlikely that this shooter acted alone given the following:

1. Reports are the guns were cached disassembled in a black bag, in a room outside the secured Secret Service perimeter.

2. The room the guns were cached in didn't have television surveillance.

🧵
1/
3. The shooter arrived at the hotel the day before the event.😯

4. TSA rules require firearms to be transported in checked baggage, unloaded, and locked in a hard-sided container, declared to the airline at check-in.

2/
5. Local DC law requires firearms in vehicles to be inaccessible from the passenger compartment and unloaded.

6. Washington DC is not a "safe passage" jurisdiction for non-residents without a license. The shooter lacked this license.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
USN flag ranks & their staffers have been fighting the idea of distant economic blockade of China tooth an nail as a response to China invading Taiwan for 30 years.

They really don't want a recent precedent of a successful blockade...

1/3
...to prevent their Carrier fleet Pickett's charge into the South China Sea.

Specifically distant blockade as a strategy against China makes having/regaining 100 Cold War era

2/3 Image
Image
Image
...frigates and destroyer tenders supporting them on distant blockade stations outside the 2nd Island chain, "budget relevant" for a military strategy of conducting three years of blockade enforcement.

3/3 Image
Image
Read 4 tweets

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