Andreas Graf Profile picture
Jun 17, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Let's talk about hydrogen blending. Blending up to 20% of hydrogen by volume into the gas grid translates into only about 7% in energy terms, meaning the CO2 emissions reduction benefit is limited to 7% - much less when the H2 is CO2-intensive.
irena.org/publications/2… Image
But if you put the cost of a feed-in tariff hydrogen blending where it would belong - namely on the gas supplier and gas customers - you would also effectively increase the cost of fossil gas through an implicit CO2-price. IRENA estimates the same blending =+0.5Eurocents/kWh.
That could come on top of the +1€ct/kWh per €50/tCO2 in carbon pricing that might be in place in future. Image
Well in Q4 2020 households paid on average 6.6 Eurocents/kWh for gas, even if prices varied significantly across Europe. So in essence physical blending up to 20% with cost recovery and a carbon price of €100/t would add +2.5ct.
ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/d… Image
Now imagine you also used the carbon pricing revenues from pricing the carbon content of the natural gas and used it to reduce electricity prices - for example by covering the cost of renewables deployment or reducing electricity taxes.
Together (the price increase of natural gas - and the price decrease of electricity) would go a long way towards reducing the price ratio between electricity and gas in Europe - helping to make heatpumps increasingly competitive with fossil gas boilers across Europe. Image
Even in countries like Germany and Belgium where the price ratio is particularly pernicious due to low gas prices and high electricity prices - you don't have to pull all that much at these two levers to make heat pumps the cheaper option for households - as they should be. Image
And you could even skip the idea of physical blending and simply do virtual blending instead by allowing gas suppliers to count hydrogen fed into dedicated hydrogen pipelines. This way you could both more quickly and sensibly scale hydrogen production with the same cost recovery.
And the faster you finance the scale-up of green hydrogen this way, the faster we should also see a switch from fossil gas boilers to heat pumps in residential and commercial heating, even with explicit carbon pricing at politically more resilient levels. Image
So, I say good riddance, if we want to waste our time talking about blending hydrogen into gas pipelines to scale hydrogen production - game on. Let's just make sure we get the cost-recovery right.

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More from @andreasgraf

Mar 13, 2023
I think its high time we grapple with the fact that the target setting process for the EU's 2030 hydrogen targets last year was driven by hydrogen hysteria. The numbers are complete nonsense with no sound analytical basis whatsoever.
Nowhere was 20 Mt of H2 found to be a realistic goal! Lets start with the European Commission's own modelling for REPowerEU, which yields only 16 Mt in 2030 based largely on external modelling assumptions driven by the political target itself.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
So how does the Commission justify a 20 Mt target based on a modelling exercise that yields only 16 Mt. Well they simply round up 20 Mt by adding 4 Mt on top🧐! I don't think that's how an impact assessment is supposed to work.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
Einige Erkenntnisse aus dem Webinar von @FraunhoferISI @consentec_de @ifeu @TUBerlin zu den neuen Klima und Energie #Langfristszenarien des @BMWK.
langfristszenarien.de/enertile-explo…
#Langfristszenarien

Im Gebäudesektor:
"Wir verdreifachen die Fernwärmebereitstellung in allen drei Szenarien".
"Hybrid-Wärmepumpen werden nur zwischen 2024 und 2030 installiert" - "Man muss hinterfragen, ob dieser Modellierungs-Artifakt realistisch ist." Image
Im Gebäudesektor:
"Ein möglichst schneller Ausbau der Wärmenetze und der Wärmepumpen ist die dominante Strategie zur Erreichung der Klima- und Sektorziele."
#Langfristszenarien Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
Der @bEEmerkenswert schlägt für die Fernwärme als Teil von einem Beschleunigungspaket vor die Transformation Pläne im BEW für die Förderung von Solarthermie auszusetzen und Nachhaltigkeitskriterien für Bioenergie klarer zu gestalten.
.@bEEmerkenswert: Bei Häusern mit einer relativ neuen Gas oder Ölheizung (Max 10 Jahre) sollte mit einer auf drei Jahre befristeten Solarbooster-Sonderförderung zur Nachrüstung mit Solarthermie angereizt werden, um bis zu 25-50% des fossilen Brennstoffeinsatzes zu vermeiden.
Der @bEEmerkenswert kritisiert die Anhebung von Effizienz Kriterien für Biomasseanlagen basiert auf eines Jahreszeitbedingten Raumnutzungsgrads und schlagen stattdessen die Nutzung des Heizwerts vor.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 31, 2022
One of Germany's largest heat pump manufacturers @StiebelEltron expects record production of 80k units this year and is investing €600 million to scale its production to 240k by 2025. That's half of Germany’s 500k annual heat pump target from 2024 provided by one manufacturer!
This follow announcements by @Viessmann that they will be investing €1 billion in the development and production of heat pumps over the next three years, including €200 million for a new production site in Poland employing 1700 people.
haustec.de/heizung/waerme…
.@daikinEurope is also planning to invest €1.2 billion at 4 different production sites by 2025, including the opening of a new €300 million plant in Poland.
daikin.eu/en_us/press-re…
Read 13 tweets
Aug 31, 2022
"Einer der größten deutschen Produzenten, Stiebel Eltron, will nun über eine halbe Milliarde Euro investieren, um binnen drei Jahren dreimal so viele Anlagen wie in diesem Jahr liefern zu können."
energie-und-management.de/nachrichten/en…
"Für 2022 erwartet die mittelständische Firma aus dem südniedersächsischen Holzminden laut Mitteilung einen Produktionsrekord von 80.000 Wärmepumpen. Dies sei eine Steigerung um 60 % gegenüber 2021. In den nächsten drei Jahren soll die Anzahl auf dann 240.000 Geräte wachsen."
"Für diese Pläne sind an den verschiedenen Standorten des Familienunternehmens umfassende Investitionen in Personal und Fertigungsstätten nötig. 600 Mio. Euro stellt Stiebel Eltron dafür in den kommenden Jahren bereit."
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3, 2022
Here's a collection of some of the most interesting analysis that has appeared over the last days with regards to short- to medium-term actions that Europe can take to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas.
Read 12 tweets

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