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Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
@SamCoatesSky
Jun 18, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Why the Tories should be worried by the Chesham and Amersham by-election

6 key lessons
news.sky.com/story/why-the-…
Takeaway 1

Westminster conventional logic - that the Tories would win - wrong *again*
Takeaway 2 - The Lib Dems live!
Takeaway 3 - Dreadful Labour result but they won’t worry about it too much
Takeaway 4 - Defining who is the “incumbent” is key
Takeaway 5 - Uncomfortable conversations about the PM ignoring traditional Tory heartlands - aka the Blue Wall - start here
Takeaway 6 - this is a much clearer indication of anti Tory tactical voting than we got in the May local elections

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More from @SamCoatesSky

Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Sep 14, 2023
Today Tories accused Labour of wanting to make the UK “the dumping ground for many of the millions of illegal migrants that Europe doesn’t want”

This is because Keir Starmer has said again today he wants to negotiate a “returns agreement” with the EU, and the “quid pro quo” would be accepting quotas of migrants from the EU

Earlier in the summer, Rishi Sunak was attempting to negotiate his own returns agreement. Tim Barrow’s negotiation stalled (see @matt_dathan below) - and we don’t know the precise terms - but would almost certainly have involved UK taking a share of EU migration.

Some in the home office came across as less enthusiastic than No10 on this



Image
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In May at the Council of Europe in Reykjavik, Rishi Sunak pushed fellow leaders to discuss a new returns agreement.

However @matt_dathan reported in August the commission was not open to a UK-EU readmissions agreement.

The Times saw notes of a meeting between Bjoern Seibert, von der Leyen’s head of cabinet, and Sir Tim Barrow, Britain’s national security adviser and former ambassador to the EU
@matt_dathan This is Rishi Sunak’s response to Labour’s announcement Image
Read 7 tweets
Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Aug 19, 2023
Bloomberg:

UK debt has risen 40% since the pandemic start, leaving debt now at 100.8% of GDP - and we are paying more to service that debt “than any other advanced economy”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Only Japan has seen a bigger +rise+ in debt, though Japan, US, France and Italy nations have a bigger % debt to GDP Image
Britain has more index linked gilts, so is more exposed now borrowing costs have reached a 15 year high Image
Read 5 tweets
Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
May 6, 2023
This is intriguing. Why is there just 1 Council out of 230 outstanding?

Redcar Council👇🏻 says that they’ve agreed to delay a *third* recount of Longbeck ward until Tuesday morning

According to Teeside Live, Longbeck ward is where CURRENT Cleveland Police and Crime Commissioner… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This story from local journalists about Steve Turner is fascinating

It says Turner’s wife - who is leader of the Conservative group - was involved in selecting him as a candidate in the same word as her

gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-… ImageImage
Turner, a former UKIP councillor, used to work for Tory MPs Jacob Young and Simon Clarke Image
Read 5 tweets
Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
Arriving at the Elysee and Sunak and Macron prepare to talk small boats, VERY worth reading this Commons refresher on multiple cash injections to France so far….

More than £300m in UK to Fr payments since 2014

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
And the success rate of the French?

Stopped 42.5% of people, intercepted 53% of boats
And THIS is very striking

MPs heard from Dan O’Mahoney, director of the Clandestine Channel Threat Command

France does not detain and arrest migrants, and they then go free, he said
Read 4 tweets
Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Feb 9, 2023
I haven't read it all, but please feel free to highlight the best bits

P1-14 of Portland's How Labour Works
Read 29 tweets
Sam Coates Sky Profile picture
Jan 24, 2023
This exchange between Sky @KamaliMelbourne and minister Chris Philp feels significant

Philp sent out with careful phrases - PM "understood no outstanding tax issues at the time" of appointment.

And didn't know of "discussions"

This doesn't preclude Sunak knowing a fair amount Image
Sunak could have known there was an issue - but was told that it had been concluded with HMrC and judged that it was resolved politically

And "discussions" formulation is so wide - what discussions wasn't he aware of? He wouldn't haven't been aware of the detail of them anyway
And this story remains inconvenient for Sunak

Such was the Sun on Sunday story that Zahawi was flagged over his tax affairs -
so didn't get an honour

Was Sunak aware of that kind of concern?

If not why did Simon Case / the propriety and ethics team not tell him Image
Read 4 tweets

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