Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.
1/
With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.
2/
Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.
3/
Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.
4/
Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.
There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.
5/
So what should be done during such times?
Compulsive straddle sellers can keep a close SL & do quick scalping. But such profits don't give you much satisfaction, as speculation element is high in such trades.
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Better way is to trade directional. If you have a little sense of market direction, then one can make good use of rising premiums.
There are many option strategies like Ratios, Ladder, even far OTM naked/spread selling which can give good opportunity to take advantage.
7/
The advantage can also be taken without directional knowledge. The bias that the premiums will fall in one direction & rise in another. Example if premiums are rising in a downmove, then Call Ratios or OTM calls can be sold. It's because they will not rise much in an upmove.
8/
All said, sometimes premiums do fall heavily during such times. But it's better to not try to sell them speculating that the top is made. It's better to wait it out & let the premiums settle a little. Then one can enter cautiously & with decent gains go agressive again.
9/
So basic crux is to find an objective system to follow the market. There are lot of forces at play in option selling, apart from THETA decay.
If one can find a way to forsee how volatility or direction is going to play out, then it's a different ball game altogether.
10/
Idea is to not get caught up in wild moves when premiums are unstable. If we do get caught, then we are not in a good vantage point to take advantage of inflated premiums.
Patience is the key & being ready to let go of some premium decay. Don't get caught up in FOMO.
11/
A good example is today (18/06/21). Premiums were giving repititive spikes since morning, with a big spike at 11am. The spikes were only in the downmove which is important observation.
In this scenario, we could have sold inflated OTM calls, which were not falling.
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We can also use strategies like credit spreads or skewed call ratios. So we are trading direction here with the premise that premiums will fall in the upmove.
When market bounced back calls also fell at first. If market starts rising, we can start neutralizing our position.
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We can do it in two ways:
• If IVs are falling then sell otm puts
• If IVs are increasing then buy higher delta calls to make Call ratios
The above example is when we want to trade directional & take advantage of rising premiums.
14/
For non-directional best was to not enter till 11:30am. We can't really know where the top will be made. So let the dust settle & premiums to start falling. Then we can slowly build our position & ride the falling IVs.
I traded in both the ways in different counters.
15/
The risk was IV spike in upmove for my directional position, for which i would have bought higher delta calls to protect.
Risk for my non-directional straddle was an IV spike at EOD, for which i exited early (much regret), as profit received was high in short time.
16/
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In 1997 my family travelled to Chicago to attend a trader's conference.
"Samurai Trader's Symposium".
It was hosted by the author of the book "Zen in the Markets: Confessions of a Samurai Trader" by the late Edward Allen Toppel.
The book is mostly about Trading Psychology, which had a big impact on my dad's trading when he first started out. The Author, Eddie as we called him, was a top trader on the Chicago exchange at the time. He became a close friend to our family.
He was amazed at how his book could have such a profound impact on someone. But this was a time when knowledge wasn't in abundance like today. He himself found it tough at times to follow his own rules, but this is because markets can be tough at times & our ego gets in the way.
Hello! This is a master thread that contains my past threads on options, trading psychology and my own experiences in the market. I hope they provide you with valuable and practical insights.
10 mistakes in my 14 years of trading as an option seller
How to become a successful trader
(for beginners) 🧵
1. We need adequate funds to begin our trading journey. If you don't have enough funds, my suggestion would be to borrow money from relatives or close friends. In the long run you will realise that your relationship will only grow stronger.
2. To understand what trading is all about, it is necessary to learn from experts. There are many successful traders, who have almost stopped trading & have made it their life mission to teach beginners through workshops & telegram channels. Learn from them.
10 things that have helped me stay profitable as a full-time trader for nearly two decades 🧵
1) Following the market. Market speaks to us in one language: Price. Be it volatility or direction, the ideology has always been simple: to follow the price as closely as possible. Whenever I have astrayed from the objectivity of price, have been severely punished by the market.
2) Exiting losers & accepting mistakes. This is something basic & every trader knows it by heart. But to apply it is still a challenge & our basic human psychology interferes with it. Being a full-time trader helps in this aspect, as we can't really afford to lose big.
The most tough environment for option sellers is the transition between high to low Vix. One gets well accustomed in handling the regular IV spikes & the high theta decay that follows afterwards.
During low Vix the spikes are less frequent & less intense. With less premiums one is always afraid of gamma moves, which in the recent past 2 years have been plenty.