I'm excited to see my article "Cooperation Under Asymmetry: The Future of US-China Nuclear relations" out in the latest issue of @TWQgw. A changing political and nuclear landscape are accentuating longstanding risks of arms racing and nuclear use in US-China relations. 1/
Risks of arms racing and nuclear use in the US-China relationship result from asymmetries in alliances, geography, conventional military power, nuclear posture, and postures for non-nuclear capabilities w/ strategic effects (cyber, space, conventional missiles, missile defense).
The Cold War example suggests that nuclear asymmetry in particular is an obstacle to cooperative nuclear risk reduction. But the path to nuclear symmetry is dangerous, as early Cold War crises indicate. As such, US-China nuclear risks could get worse before they get better. 3/
But the US and China should strive to avoid the Cold War example of a crisis-ridden and arms-racing pathway to cooperative nuclear risk reduction. I outline three “C’s” as principles that could help. 4/
First "C": Combine nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons in the concept of strategic stability that the two sides pursue. Second "C": Compartmentalize the US-China nuclear relationship from other issues in US-China relations and arms control with Russia. 5/
Third "C": Compromise to realize mutual interests in nuclear risk reduction, even if that means giving up advantages that asymmetries in the relationship create. 6/
Download the article here: twq.elliott.gwu.edu along with articles from @toby_dalton @BrewerEricM @Lauren_Sukin and Brad Roberts. 7/
The paper is adapted from one I wrote for the Penn Project on the Future of US-China relations @CsccPen. See the Project's other national security papers from @jessicacweiss @ryanl_hass @jwuthnow and papers on other aspects of the relationship: web.sas.upenn.edu/future-of-us-c… /end
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