The survey was carried out between April and May. After the Agriculture harvest.
It comes after the WB report that 49% of citizens live under extreme poverty
It’s worth considering what the people themselves are saying.
2/10
The 67% of people believe the country is going in the wrong direction.
There is a gapping disparity between what GOZ says & lived reality.
Agriculture contributes 9.3% of GDP. A good harvest impact on our economy is now negligible. GOZ is out of touch with reality.
3/10
Does it mean GOZ will change course? Especially after launching its National Development Strategy NDS1?
Despite the rejection of NDS1 by the people, GOZ will not change direction. Because of GOZ paternalistic attitudes. Even in the face of hard facts & evidence.
4/10
62% of the rural folk, after a good harvest believed the economy is going in the wrong direction.
It is my belief, the people use 2009-2013, as their base reference. Meaning people know what a good economy is.
Without the GNU period, good economics would be a fairytale
5/10
Only 16% of people believed the Economic conditions were fairly positive.
How does one reconcile this, with Prof Mthuli’s surplus? A surplus means all is well.
Will the minister be humble & hear the concerns of the people? Guvamatanga called them shareholders. Are they?
6/10
Covid has compounded the already bad economics. 87% of people were vulnerable without regular income.
Zim economy has changed. It’s a consumption economy propelled by diaspora remittances & aid. They provide welfare support not GOZ.
GOZ barely acknowledges diaspora!
7/10
The people want Jobs. Yet economic policy does not address this. Imagine taking US$1.4bn from Exporters & handing it over to importers at 30-60% market discount.
Money wasted in consumption & NOT capital investment creating JOBS.
Price stability is a mirage. Propaganda!!
8/10
Why are NGO & Pastors trusted?
NGO’s provided direct aid to citizens. US$800m was provided in 2020 by western nations. Welfare support comes from foreigners.
Pastors are trusted because of mass therapy they conduct. People cannot afford individual therapy/hope sessions.
9/10
The President never gets proper information. It is often curated and bad news hardly comes without blaming political enemies.
The people to whom the economy is real on a daily basis are suffering & current economic course is not working. It doesn’t address savings.
10/10
Savings equal Investment. Only the diaspora & international capital can provide this gap.
Mister President, sir, your cabinet is NOT fit for purpose. Time to reshuffle. Time to connect with the people. Especially Diaspora. They keep the country afloat.
Ps
In the next survey I hope remittances will be investigated. How many families receive and how much. How frequent?
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We live in perilous times as John 2 seeks to assert & control how markets must behave.
2/21
It’s important to contextualize the press statement;
a) Supermarkets were pricing goods at a rate of 32-37
b) The official RBZ rate was 26.7 giving a street premium of 25%.
3/21
In the history of premiums this was one of the lowest that we’ve seen in the last five years. But the RBZ was not satisfied as it believed the rate must actually be 22 based on “economic fundamentals”determined exchange rate
This week it was made clear that GoZ is out of touch with reality. I wish to explain how monetary and fiscal policy in Zim has been rendered irrelevant
(1) Zim is now predominantly a USD cash society.
(2) Goods have moved from shops & tuckshops to pamusika & pavements
2/12
The reality is that GoZ crowded out private sector from banking credit market. So most people don’t need the banks. USD Cash is the primary mode of transacting in Zim. RBZ has zero say in this. Even if they ban trading of USD because USD is from diaspora &
3/12
Not from industry, RBZ is powerless. The latest trade deficit of US$2bn , the highest ever, means the country is beholden to diaspora remittances to close the gap. It’s remittances that have power over RBZ .
Command Agriculture was passed as a private sector initiative funding farmers. GoZ issued non tradable TB’s as a guarantee.
Instead of using pvt sector money the US$500m was funded by public funds and caused hyperinflation.
The latest heist in offering is title deed fiasco.
The president must be warned of the consequences of an improperly constituted committee of the same characters that plunged the monetary system in 2016.
Farmers themselves must resist & protest this nefarious ACT, that will disenfranchise them.
Command Agriculture, left farmers poorer and unable to pay back the loans.
It’s only the cartel that became richer with its many extortionist middle men.
Zimbabwe’s public infrastructure (road, rail, air, land) was built by a company British South Africa Company (BSAC) and owned by stockholders until 1923.
Invariably electricity, rail, dams were amongst the first & best in the world.
2/20
How did the BSAC do it?
They listed a company & its vision on the London Stock Exchange & invited the public to buy shares and fund the public infrastructure. This was in 1890 and over a hundred years later this infrastructure still stands.
3/20
I raise this issue NOT to offend but to highlight a historical fact which is proving to be important in todays’ debate on whether or not we should privatize public utilities.
The clear answer is YES, since to begin with utilities in Zimbabwe were owned by a company.
I will borrow the conceptual framework of @sivioinstitute in analyzing RBZ about turn.
ZiG is a gold backed structured currency launched on the 5/04/24 at a rate of 13.54 to the USD.
The MPS of 28/09/24 has now devalued ZiG by 44% to 25.
2/ ZiG was introduced in April of 2024 because its predecessor ZWL introduced in February of 2019 had lost 99% of its value. In 5 years $1 was now 1cent. In 2024 alone ZWL moved from a rate of 12k to 40k to the USD on the parallel market.
3/ In an unprecedented move the new Governor of the RBZ John Mushayavanhu claimed his predecessor John Mangudya was printing money and bond notes introduced in May 2016 were NEVER backed by US$200m Afreximbank facility as claimed.
In the wake of Professor Mthuli coming out and signaling the intention of GOZ to introduce a currency board it’s worth revisiting the essentials/fundamentals as we await full details from the authorities.
2/24
A currency board (CB) is a good thing and we have said as much in the last three years.
The sanctity of the currency board mechanism, depends on a number of factors, which I will list and elaborate on.
3/24
It’s rather odd that the announcement is coming from Treasury. From our current laws this should come from the central bank. We would let this pass if treasury & RBZ were working in concert. This is not the case and we are weary of stillborn ideas that never gain consensus.