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David Fishman Profile picture
@pretentiouswhat
Jun 20, 2021 • 18 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Hi! I often tweet long threads about China's energy sector, mostly grid, renewables, and nuclear.

This is a master collection of my favorites, from oldest to newest.

I will add more as they are created and remove oudated ones.
1. The messy recent history of China's nuclear power industry:

2. A summary of China's regional power grids and dispatch model:

3. A discussion of China's renewable power subsidies and tariff structure:

4. A pretty nerdy and niche summary of how engineers design nuclear power plants to be safe from airplane strikes.

5. An introduction to China's UHV transmission network:

6. China's power shortages in December 2020: Translation of Caixin article + commentary.

7. A short thread about barriers to increased Chinese RE investment in BRI:

(was hoping to expand on this, but my project's funding was yanked and I started doing other things).

8. Everything you wanted to know about nuclear waste:

9. A short thread about the competitiveness of Chinese nuclear exports:

10. Helping out a confused man who didn't know much about nuclear power or China:

(got myself blocked for my efforts)
11. A thead about pumped hydropower storage in China:

12. A history of renewable energy Feed-in-Tariffs in China.

13. Why the Fukushima wastewater release really isn't that big of a deal:

14. Commentary on new RE consumption quotas for Chinese provinces in 2021:

15. A commentary on the Taishan radioactivity release alarmism:

16. Translation/commentary of the subsequent NNSA press release re: Taishan

17. A commentary on Guangdong's new direct power purchase rules for Renewable Energy - important for corporates.

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More from @pretentiouswhat

David Fishman Profile picture
Sep 25
I recommend anyone outside of China seeking to better grasp this concept to watch a recent Chinese TV drama called "Like a Flowing River" (大江大河).

It follows the story of three very different men making their fortunes in the "New China" of the 1980s and 90s. 🧵
Image
One is a new college graduate who becomes an employee at a SOE chemical plant, one becomes the quintessential hustler/private entrepreneur, and one is a former PLA soldier appointed party secretary of his hometown village.

They each reflect a real aspect of China in the 80s. Image
My favorite character* is Lei Dongbao, the former soldier who must first navigate the implementation of rural land reform in his village and eventually leads the charge in setting up a hypwer-successful example of one of China's new Township and Village Enterprises (乡镇企业) that were so important in the early years of reform and opening up.

*he's my favorite character until season 3, when the writers engage the most egregious character assassination plotline since Game of Thrones. You don't have to watch season 3.Image
Read 11 tweets
David Fishman Profile picture
Sep 21
China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) heard us talking about common prosperity and issued a big new statistics report on it. It's called:

"People's Lives are now Moderately Prosperous, Proceeding Steadily Towards Common Prosperity"

I pulled out some highlights.🧵Image
On income growth and the rural/urban income gasp over the last decade:

"In 2023, the per capita disposable income of the population increased to 39,218 yuan, a real increase of 94.4% since 2012, after accounting for price factors. This represents 6.2% average annual real growth from 2013-2023."

The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 51,821 CNY, 75.4% higher than in 2012, with an annual average real growth rate of 5.2%, while the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 21,691 CNY, 111.4% higher than in 2012, with an average annual real growth rate of 7.0%.

In 2023, the ratio of disposable income per capita between urban and rural incomes was 2.39:1, down from 2.88:1 in 2012."Image
On the income gap between regions:

"In 2023, the per capita disposable incomes of residents in different regions were as follows:

East: 49,822 CNY
Central: 33,328 CNY
West: 31,100 CNY
Northeast: 33,207 CNY

Taking the income of residents in the West as 1, then the ratios of per capita disposable income to the east, central, and northeast regions are 1.60, 1.07, and 1,07, respectively. These relative income gaps have narrowed by 0.10, 0.03, and 0.22, respectively, vs 2013."Image
Read 10 tweets
David Fishman Profile picture
Sep 19
Gansu Travelogue 2: A "Little Mecca" of Sino-Islamic Architecture

If you're a fan of Sino-Islamic architecture, Linxia City is the place for you. This small city with a population of ~370k is the capital of the Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture (AP) in southern Gansu.

🧵 Image
Linxia Hui AP lies about 100km southwest of Lanzhou, with a total population of ~2 million. Linxia is the name for both the autonomous prefecture and its capital city.

Per the name, it is for the Muslim Hui ethnic minority in China. The population is 57% Muslim; 32% are Hui.
Image
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The Hui people are scattered in China, There are several formal high-level admin regions for Hui people:

-1 Provincial-level Autonomous Region in Ningxia
-2 Prefecture-level Autonomous Prefectures in Linxia and Changji
-There are also 11 Autonomous Counties

The rest of the Muslim population in Linxia comprises several other ethnic minorities found exclusively in this region, some very rare, including the Dongxiang (东乡族), Salar (撒拉族), and Bonan (保安族) peoples.

They have their own Autonomous Counties within Linxia AP, specifically Dongxiang County and Jishishan County. Jishishan County was devastated by an earthquake in December 2023 and I very much wanted to visit and support its economy, but its scenic sites are still all closed.

Yongjing County is the site of the Liujia Reservoir on the Yellow River, the place I visited and wrote a thread about a few days ago.

Here's the link, if you missed it:
Image
Read 21 tweets
David Fishman Profile picture
Sep 17
This is a long, wonky, data-driven, meandering thread about real estate & median lifestyles & home affordability in China.

I see a people discussing Chinese homes and wages and affordability on here think about it in a kinda one-dimensional way, and I hope this adds context.
🧵 Image
First,when you chat to people in China, talking about real estate is like discussing the weather. Every adult will talk about it, and everyone, no matter who or where they are, says it's expensive.

That's been the case for the entire time I've lived here.
But when for affordability, context is key. What part of the country? And what part of the city are we talking about? And of course...wages matter a lot for affordability, and they vary a lot across cities and districts.

Chinese cities are more like administrative prefectures...they have downtowns, near-downtowns, suburban districts, and rural counties dozens or hundreds of kms from downtown.

This is Pingdingshan City, in Henan. How do you think real estate prices in downtown Jinghu District compare to Wuwei county-level City or Nanling County? What about wages?Image
Read 22 tweets
David Fishman Profile picture
Aug 25
Okay, I have some commentary and theory on how China hit the 2030 goal 6 years early, because it is indeed uncommon for China to set a target they can smash so easily.

Context: In December 2020, Xi announced this 1200 GW target at that year's UN Climate Ambition Summit. 🧵
At the time, China's total wind+solar capacity was ~446 GW. They were actually exactly equal: 223 GW apiece in Q3 2020.

Ignoring Q4 2020, if each added ~38 GW of capacity per year, for the entire decade of the 2020s, they'd each hit ~600 GW by 2030 (for a total of 1200 GW).
Was this a realistic goal? Well let's look at the historical context.

Covid had caused the economy to shrink over the first half of 2020. The generous wind/solar Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) program was ending, which slashed profits. Industry sentiment was low.

e360.yale.edu/features/why-c…
Read 14 tweets
David Fishman Profile picture
Aug 24
⚡️July 2024 China Power Consumption Update ⚡️

Chinese power consumption for July 2024 hit 939.6 TWh, up 5.7% vs July 2023.

This is some of the softest expansion we've seen all year, marking two months in a row of decent-but-not-great YoY growth of power consumption. Image
The softer growth was most apparent in the secondary industry segment, which was up 5% YoY. At this time last year, power consumption had stabilized, so we can't attribute this to a skewed base effect.

5% isn't horrible, and it's still growth, but I usually like to see 6%+. Image
The services sector added 7.8% consumption YoY, against what was a very high base from 2023. No concerns here at all - services continues to be a bright spot.

I even had to aexpand the y-axis on this chart to accomodate the huge July power consumption. Image
Read 9 tweets

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