I translated this post and sent it to a friend here in China working at a company that builds industrial rooftop solar projects.

His reactions were interesting and illuminating as to the relative market state of solar power installations in the USA vs. China here in 2024...

https://twitter.com/peterlikesgyros/status/1781319943570551254

Me: "See this picture? I found it online, from a rooftop solar installation in the United States. The turnkey cost was 610,000 USD. I guess there are about 1000 panels here, at 380W. What do you think?"

Him: "I think the math has some problem. That number can't be right."

This is a massive discrepancy - over 45 TWh of "missing" generation betweenChinese power generation stats and the power consumption stats.

I asked around and found the answer - but it was also something I wasn't aware of myself, so I learned something in the process...
Short 🧵

https://twitter.com/danmurtaugh/status/1780512888186458194

Previously, my understanding had been that National Bureau of Statistics powergen data (reported monthly) excludes distributed generation (like rooftop solar) because they report facilities "at-scale" 规模以上, meaning installations of 6MW or larger.

Actually this is wrong.

Rather than me just saying "lmao Noah's a dope", (which believe me, is always my first instinct) let us make this into a learning opportunity and take a detailed look at the thing he has misidentified as a government-run social credit system: Alipay's Zhima Credit platform.

🧵

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1779973461450113104

So yes, that was a screenshot of his friend's Zhima Credit score (aka Sesame Credit) within Alipay.

Alipay, the financial transactions platform developed by Alibaba, is one of the two largest digital payment platforms in China (the other one is WeChat Pay, developed by Tencent).

An influential Chinese think tank: "Energy Security and New Strategies Institute" (operated by state-owned China Energy Media Group) published its 2024 power report, a comprehensive summary of 2023 data.

I've pulled out some of their key items and added very brief comments 🧵 A note before I begin: I know a lot has been written about 2023 already...most of this isn't new.

It's all good stuff, but I'm mostly writing this to have a handy place on Twitter to store these facts, if anyone (including me) wants to reference them again later this year...

A juicy solar scandal is unfolding in Hubei, as reported by CCTV.

Their investigation reveals a large solar PV + agriculture farm in Anlu City, Hubei was likely built on "Prime Farmland" (基本农田).

This land is supposed to be reserved for food production.

(ht @crushspread) The CCTV Caijing Investigations report is titled:

"Exposed by CCTV! Spending 8 million RMB to Develop High-Standard Farmland, Two Years Later Converted to Solar PV; Rice Yield Plummets!"

It's honestly some of the best stuff I've ever seen on CCTV.

news.cctv.com/2024/03/25/ART…

Faces of Jingmaishan 3: Milk Tea Grandma

I find Grandma sitting in front of her timber home, carefully tending a small charcoal fire.

The sign behind her says "Grandma's Milk Tea".

"Grandma's Milk Tea? So...are you the Grandma?"
"That's me!" she replies cheerfully. "How much for a cup?"
"Fifteen yuan. Do you want to try?"

"Okay, we'll have one please"

She motions us to sit on some small stools next to the fire while she prepares the tea in a ceramic pot over the fire, a combination of Pu'er tea, dried flowers, milk, and rock sugar.

BIG policy notice from China's NDRC and NEA today on the need for grid flexibility investments and upgrades, with targets for 2027 and beyond.

"Guidance Opinions on Strengthening Grid Peaking Energy Storage and Smart Dispatch Capacity Building

A few highlights: This is a major document - essentially a near/mid-term manifesto for grid flexibility capacity and storage investments. It is split into sections for:

1. Peaking and Flexibility
2. Storage
3. Smart Dispatch
4. Marketization
5. Organizational Capacity

I'll just cover #1 here.

China Taxicab Chronicles 5: Solitary Mr. He

Mr. He picks me up in Shanghai on my way to the maglev station. He looks to be in his late 50s. It's about 7am and I'm pulling a suitcase, clearly heading to the airport.

"Hello, foreign friend. Are you going home for the New Year?" “No, I'm leaving on a business trip for a few days. I already finished my New Year holiday.”
"In Shanghai?"

"No, in my wife's hometown, in Hubei. Ezhou City."
"Ohhh Ezhou City. I know it. It's close to Wuhan."

"That's right. Are you from Hubei? Many people don't know Ezhou".

A 🧵 about Chinese Towns, Urbanization, and Housing Demand

If you ever get out of the big cities in China, you've surely passed through a Town, (镇) i.e., an administrative center of a rural area.

Towns fall between Villages and Counties, equivalent to Sub-Districts in cities. Towns are hubs for the nearby villages, so they'll have a hospital, middle school, police station, shops, etc. Big enough to have their name on highway exits, but usually <100k people.

If you need a refresher on CN administrative units, here:

https://x.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1674429913242423304?s=20

How do physical malls survive in China when you can order everything online?

Two things...F&B and...experiences. Especially experiences for kids.

Behold, the brand-new Wuyue Shopping Center in Ezhou, Hubei. The entire 3F of this mall is dedicated to children's activities, games, and learning (plus half the real estate on the ground floor too).

If your kids aren't playing in a panda slide ball pit with an animatronic dinosaur, are they really playing?

Pretty major Chinese climate/industrial policy news over the weekend: NDRC called for provincial governments to accelerate a policy mandate for high carbon emitting industries to consume renewable energy.

That's steel, aluminum, cement, petrochemical, etc.

🧵on what this means: This appears to be talking about expanding the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) policy.

That's just a jargony way of saying "a mandatory quota for green power consumption.”

I covered some basics about China's RPS a long time ago in this thread:

https://x.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1462299495014690817?s=20

China Taxicab Chronicles 4: Sensitive Mr. Lu 🧵

As he helps me stuff my suitcase into the trunk of his taxi at Pudong Airport, I spot a crate of apples in Mr. Lu's trunk. Lu has shoulder-length hair and looks kind of...artsy, like a musician.

"Hey Aksu apples! Are they good?" "Ah those apples...I don't know. They were a gift. I haven't had one yet."

"I heard these Aksu apples are really just regular Fuji apples, grown in Aksu. It's a branding trick".

(Fuji is almost the only commercial apple variety in China. Aksu is a city in Xinjiang).

China Taxicab Chronicles: Self-Sacrificing Mr. Xin

It's been a while since I had a memorable taxi ride, but I had good feeling immediately getting into Mr. Xin's car. He had a close haircut with a receding hairline and a wide, round, cheerful face, mid 30s. He looked chatty. 🧵 I go for an easy conversation starter:

"Hey man, this is an EV right? It's from Rising Auto, yeah? (飞凡) How does it drive?

"It's alright. Driving is good, but I find the brakes a little soft. And the car body is very thin and light. I don't feel as safe as in my own car."

January 2024 statistics dump from China's NBS. This is a BIG update, since it has monthly, quarterly and some 2023 annual data.

I picked highlights from the annual household income and consumption report I thought were interesting, to share in this thread with comments:🧵 In 2023, nationwide average household disposable income was 39218 CNY, up 6.3% YoY (6.1% real).

That works out to average monthly disposable income of ~3268 CNY (but any typical month will be less than this, since a year-end "13th month" bonus is de rigueur for many companies).

Mr. Li the Charitable Noodle Philosopher

Last week I posted this sign of a Chongqing noodle shop in SH offering free meals to anyone in need.

Today I stopped in for a bowl, with @chris__pc.

Turns out, along with tasty noodles, owner Mr. Li also dispenses philosophy.🧵

https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1732363764140499395

As we finished our noodles and got ready to go, I took a moment to chat with with Li and found him an energetic, talkative guy.

"Hey boss, are you from Chongqing?"
"Yes, we're from Chongqing!"

(I knew he was already; his accent gave him away, I just needed an opener)

⚡️China Power Sector Fundamentals: The Parallel Power Markets

China is in the process of liberalizing its power markets, but at this "in-between" moment, it still has two parallel markets. Understanding this is key to understanding the sector.

A niche and nerdy thread 🧵 Before liberalization, China had a 100% regulated market with State Grid/Southern Grid acting as grid operator AND power sales retailer.

They bought ALL the power from generators, and sold ALL the power to users. One point of contact.

This model is still used in many countries:

⚡️October 2023 China Power Consumption Update!

It's that time of the month again, where I tell you how Chinese power demand is still growing like crazy.

So...total electricity consumption in Oct 2023 hit 742 TWh, up 8.4% vs. Oct 2022, an all-time high for the month. 🧵 By popular demand, my chart now goes back to 2019 to establish pre-covid contrast.

Power consumption in 2023 is much higher than 2019.

Covid's effect on power consumption in China is most noticeable in the first half of 2020, when YoY growth was negative or weak from Jan-July.

China's stance on nuclear vs. renewables?

See comments from China General Nuclear (CGN) Vice-GM Qin Yuxin at the APAC Electric Power Industry Association meeting in Xiamen last week:

"Nuclear power is a clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient and economical power source." "We believe nuclear power will take on an important role in the low-carbon energy transition. According to analysis from academic institutions, the carbon emissions avoided by using nuclear power currently rank first among all power generation types.

A thread about Chinese EV emissions from the perspective of what kind of power they use.

A bit nerdy, but hopefully somewhat useful🧵

First, you can split EV emissions into two buckets: those associated with producing the vehicle and those associated with its lifetime charging.

https://twitter.com/etbadabim/status/1709528930942628161

Producing the vehicle in China currently will have considerable upstream emissions exposure because the major power-consuming components like aluminum are often produced using 100% coal-fired power, either self-generation (captive plant) or via power supply contract.

What does a modern Chinese industrial port look like?

Earlier this month for an industry event, I got to tour a huge one in Fangchenggang City.

This Guangxi port processes most of the bulks cargo arriving in SW China and boasts some pretty cool technology! 🧵 We boarded our bus in Nanning and arrived in just 2 hours. The highway was brand new and lined with wind turbines. Fangchenggang (防城港) is on the coast of Guangxi, very close to the Vietnam border.

It's sub-tropical and VERY humid, with a population of just ~1 million.

Macroeconomy and society lessons from Yang the cab driver:

A casual chat with my driver in Nanning suddenly became insightful - I think it's worth sharing it here for those interested in Chinese consumption habits.

(Yes, yet another thread of cab driver wisdom)
🧵 It's around 4pm and I'm heading to the airport. I call a Didi car and get a guy almost instantly, just 20 meters away. He looks about my age, maybe a bit younger.

"Hey man, you took my order so fast...do you just sit in the hotel parking lot waiting for an airport run?"