It’s that wonderful point in every Scotland fan’s life where we start calculating just how we’re going to go out on goal difference, even if we somehow beat Croatia
The following is predicated on Scotland winning by a single goal. Here’s who to back in the other groups... #SCO
In Group A, where the final games are ‘live’, we really want Turkey to come from behind to either beat or draw with Switzerland.
If it stays 1-0 Switzerland will have same points & GD as Scotland, but more goals scored (if Scotland win 2-1 comes down to disciplinary record)
Group B is simple. Back Belgium to beat Finland (a draw leaves Finland ahead of Scotland on GD).
Denmark to beat Russia leaves 3 teams on 3 points and we’ve got our first elimination
Here Scotland fans back whoever is in front in Ukraine v Austria. We DO NOT want this game to finish in a draw, as both teams would have better GD and same points as Scotland. A win for either side creates the second elimination for a third place side on 3 points #SCO
Group D. Scotland’s group. The banter result would be somehow the Czech side beating England by three goals. This is sadly unlikely #sco
I interrupt this thread as Turkey have scored against Switzerland. Scenes. Remember - this is good for Scotland (provided we can somehow beat the last WC finalists. Allow us this dream). #SCO
Group E a bit more complex. For Slovakia v Spain the one result Scotland want to avoid is a draw. Odds are Spain *should* win so trying not to worry too much about it.
Sweden v Poland? Sweden to win or draw is fine (sorry Poland 🇵🇱). If Poland win they’ll be ahead of #SCO on GD
Switzerland now 3-1 up against Turkey. Pretty sure that’s them finishing on same points/GD as Scotland (again, if we somehow win by one goal vs Croatia). See how exhausting this is? We’ve waited 23 years to feel like this #SCO
Group F. The group of death. But it could do Scotland a favour
The big game for #SCO is France v Portugal. It may not be necessary if other groups go our way but safest result is a French win, sending Ronaldo home so Stephen O’Donnell can take his righteous place in the last 16
If Portugal beat France then #SCO want it to be by three goals or more... which is unlikely.
If Hungary somehow beat Germany again you’d want it to be by three goals or more. Also unlikely.
Just back France and Germany and all should be fine.
Having been through all that I think the two third place sides that will be eliminated, if not to come from Scotland’s group, are most likely to come from Groups B and C, which handily both play their final games before Scotland.
So #SCO fans should cheer on Belgium and Denmark tomorrow
AND
Pray for a victory for either Ukraine OR Austria.
Then it’s on us to win on Tuesday.
Group’s E & F could still bail us out (if Scotland win + groups B & C don’t go our way) but the stress would be...
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Sunak’s backpedaling on climate has collapsed the UK carbon price, just as the EU soft launches its carbon border tax
As a result UK exporters (including wind farms!) will eventually transfer £££££ to the EU that once would have flowed to the exchequer 🇬🇧 ft.com/content/53e91a…
This is going to be a massive issue. The carbon price or UK ETS isn’t particularly well understood in UK political circles.
But if you break it there are big consequences
UK carbon price used to be at parity with the EU ETS. Now? It’s < half its value
This matters not just because it makes decarbonising the U.K. more challenging, but because the EU is going to target countries with less stringent emission schemes to make sure their own members aren’t out at a disadvantage
Opec has once again banned reporters from BBG, Reuters and the WSJ from attending its events - including next week's Opec Seminar at Vienna's Hofburg Palace
Sponsors of the event include TotalEnergies and OMV, while speakers include BP's Bernard Looney and Vitol's Russell Hardy
There's a host of western blue-chip energy companies attending, including the CEOs of Occidental, ENI and Halliburton, who are appearing on stage.
We've approached all the companies for their thoughts on speaking at an event that has barred a large chunk of the western media
Put another way: the sixth largest economy in the world is right now generating ~90% of all its electricity from green sources - possibly ~95% if you presume the imports from France are primarily coming from nuclear generation
The UK looks sets to spend somewhere in the region of £150 to £200 billion pounds over the next couple of years subsiding runaway gas and electricity costs for households and businesses.
It’s a big number. A very big number.
To understand just quite how big, read on…
With ~£200bn you could cut income tax to 0% - zero - for an entire year.
No income tax out your pay packet for 12 months. That would be pretty sweet, right?
If cutting income tax entirely is a little punchy for your tastes, what about removing all duty on petrol and diesel for the next ~8 years?
As that’s what £200bn looks like.
Petrol would be more than 50p a litre cheaper until 2030
As disturbing as it delusional, to the point where you start to question whether this is what Russia’s allegedly elite thinkers genuinely believe (even if recent history suggests we should listen clearly to what they say, even when we find it preposterous).
There’s a seam of paranoia about the West having it in for them, despite almost all evidence suggesting a willingness to trade and rub along together, however awkwardly, rather than any grand ambition to see Russia overwhelmingly diminished
A country in demographic decline, with a middling economy roughly the size of Spain that is heavily dependent on natural resources, with autocratic rulers… it might be painful to hear for Russia’s elite but 99% of people in the prosperous West never gave Russia a second thought
This is quite fascinating and illustrates the degree of public pressure Shell is under - and also why many companies have effectively self-sanctioned when it comes to Russian oil. Few thoughts...
Whether by direct request or design of the sanctions, Shell believes western governments want oil traders to keep buying Russian oil to ensure security of supply. That’s arguably fair enough - the sanctions have avoided hitting energy flows, so not only are no laws being broken..
... western governments concerned about rising oil prices/inflation have left the door open to these types of purchases. But the degree of self sanctioning by companies in declining to it Russian oil may have become a concern within government