1/6 I disagree, Martin. For the past several decades businesses have been very clear: they cannot raise wages in line with productivity because of foreign competition, mainly from countries with low wages relative to productivity, and if they have to pay higher wages, they...
2/6 will be forced to move production offshore. It has also been clear that the countries that have benefitted most from global trade have been those whose wages are lowest relative to productivity.
3/6 Germany is a particularly good example of this because in the 2-3 years that they "reformed" wages downwards, they went from trade deficits and weak domestic demand to massive trade surpluses and very strong foreign demand, which in turn ultimately put huge downward...
4/6 wage pressure (mainly through soaring unemployment) on their European partners who took the other side of their imbalances.
5/6 More generally I don't think it coincidence that US and European wages for the bottom half began to stagnate in the 1980s, at just the time that capital flows were liberalized and persistent trade imbalances soared to levels that had previously been considered impossible.
6/6 When Bill Clinton argued in 1993 when he signed the NAFTA bill that "Nothing we do in this great capital can change the fact that factories or information can flash across the world; that people can move money around in the blink of an eye," this is what he meant.
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1/6 While it is true that 99% of what anti-MMTers say about MMT is nonsense, it is also true that 90% of what MMT proponents say about MMT is also nonsense. The tweet below is a typical example of the latter. Academic economists have long focused on the real economy while...
2/6 ignoring balance sheets and money, and MMT was one of the ways in which to redress this, but it seems that some of its more naive proponents have now decided that MMT means you can ignore the real economy. That's one of the reasons why Hyman Minsky was so important:
3/6 he insisted that the real economy must be understood in terms also of balance sheet constraints.
The mistake that the most naive MMTers make is their failure to understand that there is always a real constraint to borrowing — real debt-servicing capacity — even for...
1/8 The idea that China is somehow expressing the insights of MMT is based on a pretty substantial confusion, both about MMT and about China’s growth model. MMT does not tell us that government debt doesn’t matter, even if far too many analysts believe...
2/8 that this is indeed what it tells us. It simply tells us that there are no legal or practical constraints on the ability of a government that controls its central bank to service its debt in monetary terms.
3/8 But to the extent that increases in debt create purchasing power in some sector of the economy without creating an equivalent amount of additional production, servicing debt will still involve real transfers from other sectors of the economy.
1/5 How can we discuss the dangers of debt without discussing the uses of that debt? It should be obvious that whether more government debt (or money, which is the same thing) is good or bad for the economy depends on its use and purpose.
2/5 If an increase in US government debt funds a direct increase in productive investment (e.g. infrastructure), an indirect increase in productive investment (e.g. downward wealth transfers that, by boosting consumption, raise business investment) or act as a substitute...
3/5 for household debt, there is no limit to the amount by which it can increase because any increase in debt-servicing costs will be more than matched by an increase in the real debt-servicing capacity of the economy.
1/4 "While benefiting workers, higher labor costs can have consequences for employers in the form of narrower profit margins and missed sales...And when they do raise wages, employers are attempting to pass some of the higher costs on to...
2/4 customers...All those factors act as a potential brake on what is expected to be rapid economic growth in the second half of 2021."
It really depends. If the long-term problem in the US is persistently weak demand, higher wages will ultimately boost growth, sales and...
3/4 business profits – to the extent of course that the demand is retained domestically and does not flow abroad to countries with low wages relative to their levels of productivity levels (Germany, japan, China, South Korea, etc.).
1/8 There is no question that the off-campus tutoring industry has become one of the ways middle- and upper-class students outperform poor students in China's national exam system.
2/8 They get a huge amount of additional help and preparation that leaves them better able to handle the competitive school system during every step of the way, from kindergarten to high school.
3/8 And it really matters. By coincidence I was discussing this just today with one of my former students in his mid-30s. When he was at school, we agreed, it was already pretty clear that PKU and Tsinghua students...
1/6 "The implications go far beyond conventional trade liberalisation or ending the tariff war from Donald Trump’s presidency. Both Europe and the US have increasingly instrumentalised trade policy in the service of non-commercial...
2/6 values and geostrategic concerns. This tendency will now be much more co-ordinated." (@MESandbu)
I'd add that trade is always political, and to claim that it can somehow be treated as neutral and outside political goals and strategies has more to do with...
3/6 a particular ideology of trade than with the history of trade. The way any particular trade regime is structured always benefits certain countries, certain sectors and certain classes at the expense of others.