Taniel Profile picture
Jun 21, 2021 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The policy stakes of DA elections are always so obscure. This year, I got to work with @SamMellins & @akashvmehta on putting out a series on how the Manhattan DA race could change the city — what candidates are saying EXACTLY & why it matters.

It's been a great ride. A thread:
1️⃣ Turns out the Manhattan DA's office has a ton of discretion on the power & resources of a citywide office that's fueled the war on drugs, the Special Narcotics Prosecutor.

A great opportunity to look at how local institutions work, & space for change.

theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
On the Special Narcotics Prosecutor's office, the candidates were very split on what should be done: especially when it comes to the power-move the DA's office could pull: withdraw staff it lends.

theappeal.org/politicalrepor… Image
2️⃣ We've seen prosecutors leave tough-on-crime DA associations now in California and Pennsylvania. None yet in New York. Will the next Manhattan DA?

here's why it matters: theappeal.org/politicalrepor…

and what candidates said: Image
3️⃣ Activists in NY have been working to decriminalize sex work. And there's a striking amount of consensus in the DA race around supporting that, testifying to broad momentum for this effort.

why it all matters: theappeal.org/politicalrepor…

But differences emerged, here as well: Image
4️⃣ Reform candidates have been looking at the huge share of people serving life sentences. (See the latest from New Orleans! theappeal.org/politicalrepor…)

How will that play up in Manhattan? Some candidates drew some new lines: theappeal.org/politicalrepor….
It's striking to see candidates for DA say they'd never seek LWOP sentences, for instance, or that they'd never jump in to oppose an parole application (which is different than actually supporting it). Image
5️⃣ Evverywhere, prosecutors routinely keep using the testimony of police officers who're caught lying, or even framing defendants. There's finally more attention to this—and demands for DA candidates to sideline such officers, & go further in oversight. theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
Here again, plenty of policy divides between the DA candidates -- their powers are so crucial.

One issue that's very important is how DA candidates would go back and address *other cases* when misconduct in one case emerges. theappeal.org/politicalrepor… Image

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More from @Taniel

Jul 7
JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:

—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.

Follow this 🧵 for results and more: Image
2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.

This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc as well. Still, a big drop for them from outgoing Assembly (250, enough for governing with plurality). Image
Stepback: If you're getting to this thread & want background, here's a thread from this morning walking you through the big picture.

One key reminder: Left bloc & the Macron bloc are quite separate; as are conservatives (LR); as is far-right (RN).
Read 44 tweets
Jul 7
France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵:
Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Macron called these just 4 weeks ago. Decision shocked his own allies.

He already lost his gamble: His bloc is sure to lose seats & its tentative control on Assembly. (He reportedly expected Left would fail to unite, & be knocked out of R1 most places; that didn’t happen.)
Read 10 tweets
Jul 5
Details reported in piece for those who can’t read it

—Macron’s team mostly shrugged off results on Sunday. They started celebrating a birthday as returned still coming in
—He didn’t bother watching as Prime Minister, Attal, gave forceful speech calling to block far-right.
(1/?)
—Attal began calling Macronist candidate who came in 3rd but made runoff, asking them to drop out to consolidate vs far-right.

—Attal surprised to realize Macron was calling some in parallel, asking them to NOT drop out. This would risk RN wins.

(We have other confirmation:)
—Macron Interior Ministry, Darmanin right of party, reportedly said organizing election on 7/7 is good bc “bledards [word for immigrants from North Africa] won’t be around & won’t vote Left.”

Note: Darmanin & RN nearly tied in round 1. Left dropped out, helping him, to block RN.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 30
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.

Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%

What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Image
Image
Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.

Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.

NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
Image
Image
First: If you are new to my timeline & need background, here's my thread from three weeks, with a lot of background.

The basic: This is largely a 3-way battle between far-right bloc, left bloc, & Macron bloc, with conservatives as a smaller fourth bloc.
Read 48 tweets
Jun 9
‼️ Shock news : French President Emmanuel Macron just announced he was dissolving the country's National Assembly.

He's calling national elections, which'll decide who'll run the country.

The elections were supposed to be in 2027. Instead, they'll be in early July (!!!).
The runoff of these parliamentary elections will be on July 7th... so 3 days after the UK elections! An extremely short campaign.

More context:

#1: This comes an hour after disastrous election results for Macron in the EU elections. (The far-right got 31% and Macron at 15%.)
#2: France currently has a hung Parliament due to weak results by Macron's party in 2022, tho his party has been able to govern because the conservative LR (despite not being in government) typically bail them out. Upside for Macron is if lighting campaigning gets him a majority.
Read 60 tweets
May 25
bolts just covered 2 big criminal justice reforms that became law over last week.

let's jump in:

1️⃣ Minnesota ended prison gerrymandering. This is the practice of counting incarcerated people where the prison is located, which skews political power. boltsmag.org/minnesota-ends…
2️⃣ Oklahoma passed a bill that gives incarcerated survivors of domestic violence a new shot at freedom, when the crime they were convicted for stemmed from their abuse.

Law went thru twists and turns as lawmakers (in this GOP-run state) navigated a veto: boltsmag.org/oklahoma-survi…
OK, it wasn't all about policy break throughs this week.

3️⃣ In Virginia, parole has basically entirely vanished (& it was already very low) as Glenn Youngkin has remolded the board. We reported in collaboration with MoJo.

Read this dive: boltsmag.org/virginia-parol…
Read 4 tweets

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