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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
@baseballot
Jun 21, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Want to understand the #NYCmayor election results like a local?

🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁

Introducing the FIVE POLITICAL BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY! fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
3. THE BLACK BLOC. Another pretty moderate/establishment area, this one majority (63%) Black. However, it voted for Jumaane Williams, a progressive Black man, in 2018. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
4. THE LANDS OF CONTRADICTION. Usually votes for culturally conservative Dems, but was also a good region for Sanders in '16 (probably anti-Hillary protest votes). Also the Trumpiest area of NYC, by far. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
5. THE CROSSROADS. Where the other four boroughs meet. Lots of racial & political diversity makes this borough a good bellwether for the city as a whole. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
Here's a map of all five political boroughs!

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
New from me: Six Republicans have said they won't vote for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. 222 - 6 = less than 218. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house…
Five of these names have been widely reported, but national media seems to have missed that Rep.-elect Mike Collins (#GA10) promised not to vote for McCarthy at his campaign kickoff last year. gpb.org/news/2021/09/1…
The anti-McCarthy Republicans all have very conservative and very anti-establishment voting records. Using DW-NOMINATE, I identified 7 other Republicans who fit the same profile. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Interesting to see some people convinced this means Sinema IS running for reelection and some convinced it means she ISN’T.
FWIW, my first instinct was that this means she’s retiring. But I really have no idea.
Maybe she’s daring Democrats to just not run a candidate against her, lest they throw the election to the GOP? But I think there’s very little chance of that happening.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
This is an extremely misleading thread, conflating ballot due dates with dropbox availability.
Richer's previous tweet implies he is talking about ballot deadlines here. But in fact:

AZ's ballot deadline: Election Day
OR's: 7 days later
CA's: 7 days later
UT's: Varies, but at least 7 days later
WA's: 21 days later!

Meanwhile, FL's ballot deadline is the same as AZ's: Election Day.

The difference is FL closes dropboxes at the end of early voting. Whereas Arizonans can drop off their ballot at several locations on E-Day, Floridians have to go to the elections office.

Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 7, 2022
Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito (#NY04) is supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker, a spokesperson tells FiveThirtyEight.
Rep.-elect Nick LaLota (#NY01) also supports McCarthy, his campaign tells me.
Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna on the speaker vote: "I will vote on January 3rd for whoever allows me to best represent my constituents… I do not like to publicly disclose my private conversations with my colleagues."
Read 9 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
NEW FROM ME: I went district by district, and I agree with @databyler: Redistricting probably didn't cost Democrats the House. fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis…
There were 11 districts that Republicans flipped thanks to redistricting alone (including #FL04, #TN05, etc.), vs. 5 that Democrats did. (Chart by @elena___mejia!) That's a net gain of +6 for the GOP. BUT… fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis… Image
…there were 9 districts Democrats *kept* only because of redistricting, vs. only 3 for Republicans. So it was a wash! fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis… Image
Read 8 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.
That's exactly what Democrats have done in 4 of the 5 competitive Arizona House districts this year. That should easily get them to 28 seats in the 60-seat chamber. Then, if both their candidates win in the 5th seat—quite possible, as it was Biden+6—they can force a tied chamber.
Read 6 tweets

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