After elections, there are often misconceptions and distortions that arise about what the polls and models said. So I want to plant a flag right now, before we know the result. 🧵 1. According to the consensus of the data we have, Harris and Trump have roughly equal chances to win. Anyone who tells you with certainty that they know who will win is not making a data-based prediction.

🧵: We looked into the TIPP/American Greatness poll of PA that has been making the rounds on here. If you’re not familiar, you can find the poll here: amgreatness.com/2024/10/10/tru… The poll got our attention because, while its registered-voter version included 124 RVs from Philadelphia, 116 of whom said they were “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote, the LV version had only 12 LVs from there.

New from me: Six Republicans have said they won't vote for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. 222 - 6 = less than 218. fivethirtyeight.com/features/house… Five of these names have been widely reported, but national media seems to have missed that Rep.-elect Mike Collins (#GA10) promised not to vote for McCarthy at his campaign kickoff last year. gpb.org/news/2021/09/1…

Interesting to see some people convinced this means Sinema IS running for reelection and some convinced it means she ISN’T. FWIW, my first instinct was that this means she’s retiring. But I really have no idea.

This is an extremely misleading thread, conflating ballot due dates with dropbox availability.

https://twitter.com/stephen_richer/status/1600888459589484544

Richer's previous tweet implies he is talking about ballot deadlines here. But in fact:

AZ's ballot deadline: Election Day
OR's: 7 days later
CA's: 7 days later
UT's: Varies, but at least 7 days later
WA's: 21 days later!

https://twitter.com/stephen_richer/status/1600889002831138821?s=20&t=5LRwCqLZrLkvvJkKsfWR_Q

Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito (#NY04) is supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker, a spokesperson tells FiveThirtyEight. Rep.-elect Nick LaLota (#NY01) also supports McCarthy, his campaign tells me.

NEW FROM ME: I went district by district, and I agree with @databyler: Redistricting probably didn't cost Democrats the House. fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis… There were 11 districts that Republicans flipped thanks to redistricting alone (including #FL04, #TN05, etc.), vs. 5 that Democrats did. (Chart by @elena___mejia!) That's a net gain of +6 for the GOP. BUT… fivethirtyeight.com/features/redis…

TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol… Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.

195 Republican candidates for Senate, House, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general fully deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr… An additional 61 have raised questions about the election without outright saying they think it was rigged. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…

Abortion became illegal immediately after the Dobbs decision in three states: Kentucky, Louisiana, and South Dakota.

Several others should imminently follow suit once the ruling is "certified" by the AG or another state actor. I'll track those here. Missouri is the 4th state to ban abortion post-Dobbs.

https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/1540341139156439040?s=20&t=OI_eDrxTtabdP_Xw-nyDjw

Late to this, but I don’t see the problem here? If you move from one state to another with a later primary, and meet the residency requirement of each at the time, you should be able to vote in both! npr.org/2022/04/05/109… I get that it looks bad, but this is the system we’ve chosen, for better or worse. Each state’s primary is a separate election (even for president), and they are allowed to schedule them on different dates. Don’t like it? Change to a national primary.

Gotta wonder if the polls are herding here, which could produce an above-average polling error if so.

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1512861374371749892

Polls of the 2nd round of the 2017 French election were pretty herd-licious too, and that produced a historically large error. fivethirtyeight.com/features/macro…

Yesterday—MLK Day—Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) proposed a congressional map for Florida that's the most biased we've seen yet. Up and analyzed on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… This map creates 17 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats and has an efficiency gap of R+14. It's likely not a serious proposal, as it appears to violate the VRA by eliminating a Black district in North Florida. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

Over the weekend, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) proposed a congressional map for Pennsylvania. Up and analyzed on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… This map creates 8 🔴 seats, 6 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats. It tilts toward Democrats (efficiency gap D+3) but not as much as the legislature's proposals tilt toward Republicans. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

The Ohio Supreme Court has thrown out the new congressional map that Republicans passed in November. It's the 1st congressional map to be overturned this cycle. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… The rejected map was heavily biased toward Republicans. It would have created 11 🔴 seats, 2 🔵 seats, and 2 🟣 seats. The court ruled that this did not fairly represent Ohio's roughly 55-45 Republican lean. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

On Saturday, Gov. Mike DeWine signed this Ohio congressional map into law. It is only good through the 2024 election, though. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Despite Ohio's 2018 redistricting reform, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans. It has a R+16 efficiency gap and creates 11 🔴, 2 🔵, and 2 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

If O'Rourke couldn't win in 2018, he's going to have a very difficult time winning in 2022, a better year for Republicans. #TXgov And as @AlexSamuelsx5 and Mary Radcliffe wrote, this may be O'Rourke's last chance to run for something before he's considered a joke candidate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-m…

Drumroll please...

California's draft congressional map is now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… @FiveThirtyEight This map features 39 🔵 seats, 7 🔴 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. Like the current map, it is moderately skewed toward Democrats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

The Florida state Senate has released four proposed congressional maps. Up and analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… @FiveThirtyEight The four maps are very similar. All create 14 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. They have a mild GOP bias, but it's pretty shocking Republicans didn't try to gerrymander them further. They left a lot of seats on the table. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

The Nevada legislature unveiled a proposed congressional map today. Up and analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… @FiveThirtyEight This map redistributes the Dem vote currently in #NV01 to shore up #NV03 and #NV04. But another way of looking at it is that NV went from 1 safe 🔵 seat to 0.

#NV01: D+22 -> D+4
#NV03: R+5 -> D+2
#NV04 R+1 -> D+5

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

Finally, after further research, we have determined that Arkansas's map IS law and we've marked it as such. That makes 8 completed states. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… As @RedistrictNet pointed out, the new Arkansas map went from a "bill" to an "act" on Oct. 13, per the legislature's website: arkleg.state.ar.us/Bills/Detail?i… ...