There is a remarkably biased and deceptive piece in Foreign Policy with a critique of #Cliodynamics, among other things.

Thread

foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/20/his…
2. The author writes, “Peter Turchin and his collaborators have championed a new approach in which history as a discipline will be replaced by cliodynamics”. This is an outrageous falsehood. The relationship between cliodynamics and history is a mutualistic symbiosis.
3. I stress it every time I have an opportunity, for example, here:
peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/h…
and here, again:
peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/t…
4. Commenting on the Seshat project on the relationship between moralizing gods and complex societies, the author states, “But under scrutiny, those patterns show themselves to often be just results of omissions and lacunas in the underlying databases.” This is a lie of omission.
5. The author provides a link to the critique of our results, but conveniently omits mentioning our very robust rebuttal. In fact, our response involved an enormous amount of additional work.
6. We have consulted with dozens more historians and scholars of religion and summarized their collective knowledge in an analytical narrative running at over 100k words. The resulting publication has been published as a preprint months ago ...
7 ... and is currently undergoing review in an academic journal. And what did it tell us? Far from weakening our results, extensive buttressing of our data and improved analytical techniques have only strengthened them.
8. We invited our critics to respond, but so far they’ve declined to do so. But the author of this hit-piece has decided to ignore it.
9. Finally, the author says, “History and historical data can still teach us so much if we take a guide with us on the way: a historian.” It may come as a surprise, but I am in complete agreement with this statement.
10. But what the author (again, conveniently) omits is that the Seshat project does precisely this. It would be impossible to build the Databank without historians and other experts on past societies.
11. The author’s dismissal trivializes the enormous contributions of more than a hundred historians have made to the project. You can see their contributions acknowledged here:
seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-u…
12. Or you can simply look at the author list of Seshat publications, for example, this one:
journal.equinoxpub.com/JCH/article/vi…

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More from @Peter_Turchin

30 Sep 20
1. Thanks for this calculation! The starting point is very interesting, but I am not sure the answer is right (there seem to be a few extra orders of magnitude...)

2. So let's try to simplify it.
3. 100 k people burn 200 k ha, so we have 2 ha burned per person.

4. Taking median standing crop biomass in grasslands as 300 g per sq.m (it varies, dry steppe is less, moist savanna is more, but let's for the order of magnitude).
5. That works out to 6,000 kg of dry matter (mostly cellulose) per capita burned.

6. Now let's compare it with my previous estimate of firewood burned by a Russian household, 3,000 kg. In per capita terms, 600 - 750 kg.
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep 20
Which Preindustrial Society was the Most Energy-Rich?

1. Thanks to all who proposed their answers here, as well as commenters on my blog.

2. Remember that I formulated the questions so that the answer must be expressed as W (Watts) per capita. W=J/s

peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/q…
3. I now have three contenders, one that was a surprise for me, two that I had in mind when asked the question.

4. Let's start with the surprising one: hinter-gatherers burning grass-lands or brush-lands to create habitat suitable for their life-styles.
5. After initial resistance, I decided that this is a valid entry into the race. These people used energy to modify environment to suit their needs. Is that different from people using muscle power to cut forests for agriculture, or a modern farmer using bulldozers to clear land?
Read 16 tweets
18 Jul 20
The conservative case for defunding the Pentagon
#antiwar
politi.co/32sIigq
The liberal case for defunding the Pentagon
#antiwar
politi.co/3hb4tMp
The socialist case for defunding the Pentagon
#antiwar
jacobinmag.com/2020/06/defund…
Read 9 tweets
16 Jul 20
My 2020 African adventure was cancelled thanks to coronavirus... but I still have pictures from previous trips.

This one is a female kudu in South Luangwa, Zambia Image
Waiting for lions to finish their meal Image
These elephants have just crossed the Luangwa river back into the park Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Jul 20
@WalterScheidel @BjoernGehrmann We've just experienced a wave of deadly collective violence. That's different from peaceful demonstrations. Of course, dozens killed and hundreds of thousands killed are very different orders of magnitude. But the nature of internal warfare is that it easily escalates.
@WalterScheidel @BjoernGehrmann Historically and statistically, smaller-scale outbreaks of political violence serve as a reliable leading indicators of worse to come. For example, incidence of deadly riots started to increase in Antebellum America in the 1830s and exploded during the 1850s.
@WalterScheidel @BjoernGehrmann If you look at the statistical distribution of sizes (number killed) of internal collective violence, it doesn't have two humps corresponding to "riots" and "civil wars". Instead, it is a continuous "fat-tailed" distribution.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun 20
As we are living through 2020, it's worth remembering that such violence spikes recur roughly every 50 years. The spike of c.1920 was much worse than that of the late 1960s.

1921 was a particularly dark year.

reuters.com/news/picture/t… via @Reuters
The Tulsa Riot of 1921 was preceded by the Red Summer of 1919 -- race riots in c.20 cities that claimed up to 1000 lives

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Summer
Add to that the West Virginia Mine War of 1920-21. It was the first (and only) time when the US government used the Air Force against its own people.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virg…
Read 6 tweets

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