Ryan Hass Profile picture
Jun 22, 2021 9 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ Out today! “#GlobalChina: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World” is a current, broad-scope, and fact-based resource for understanding China — no longer a “rising power,” but rather a global actor. brook.gs/3iFfXf9
.@RepAdamSchiff applauds the “clear set of recommendations” and “insights from an impressive array of experts” discussed in our forthcoming title, #GlobalChina: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World. brook.gs/3iFfXf9 Image
3/ In the new edited volume #GlobalChina, @ProfTalmadge argues that competition in the U.S.-China nuclear relationship is intensifying.

Read her analysis and suggestions for policymakers as the relationship heats up: brook.gs/3iFfXf9 Image
4/ .@AngelaStent examines the rationale for the growing relationship between China & Russia and potential implications for the United States. Image
5/ According to @MichaelEOHanlon, China’s escalating skirmishes in the gray-zone could lead to military escalation.

See O’Hanlon’s recommendation for a policy of asymmetric defense in the new edited volume #GlobalChina Image
6/ .@SophieHRW discusses China’s impact on the UN Human Rights Council and suggests that member-nations concerned about human rights need to coordinate thoughtfully to limit Chinese influence there. Image
7/ This is a small sampling of the 37 chapters of the book that address the full range of issues relating to China's rise, from global governance to economic issues, technology, great power relations, regional issues, and so much more.
8/ The book is designed to be comprehensive and diverse, both in the issues examined and the viewpoints expressed. We hope the book contributes to understanding of what kind of global power China will be and how its rise will impact the US and others.
9/ It's been wonderful working w/ @ChhabraT, @RushDoshi, and @EmilieAKimball, joining w/ @BrookingsPress, and benefitting from @MaloneySuzanne and @brucebrookings guidance. The authors brought the book to life. @FordFoundation and @ElizabethKnup made it all possible. Thank you!

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More from @ryanl_hass

Apr 25
1/ I've seen a wave of videos and memes from China on America's mounting challenges under Trump, some coming from Chinese officials. I understand the blend of anger, nationalism, and schadenfreude that is animating these efforts, but I would counsel a bit of caution (🧵).
2/ I recognize the self-harm and global volatility Trump's trade war is causing. The loss of confidence resulting from Trump's actions has vaporized trillions of dollars in market value, will push up inflation and unemployment, and could tip US economy toward recession.
3/ I understand why Chinese officials want to spotlight the costs that Trump's trade war is creating in the US. I would caution, though, that few things would be more poisonous for perceptions of China in US than an appearance of efforts to manipulate US public opinion.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 12
1/ Following 10 days of travel in China, I feel China's plan for the US-China trade war is coming into focus around three central planks:
- Maintain composure and resolve;
- Avoid being isolated;
- Hit America where it hurts.

Beijing assumes no near-term resolution. (Short 🧵).
2/ Maintain composure and resolve:
- Present Chinese leadership as calm and confident;
- Condition Chinese public for economic turbulence;
- Divert frustration to US as source of problems;
- Stoke nationalism by invoking China's history of holding firm against external bullying.
3/ Avoid being isolated:
- Beijing expects US will seek to form global coalition to isolate and pressure China;
- To counter this approach, Beijing is working to find common cause with Asian and EU countries, as well as developing world, in insulating against US pressure.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 10
1/ Secretary Lutnick’s message is important for setting expectations. Chinese President Jiang Zemin sent a telegram of condolence to George W Bush on September 11, 2001, but beyond that, it is exceedingly rare for a PRC leader to initiate outreach to a US president. (🧵)
2/ I’ve been told repeatedly that no advisor to Xi would recommend that Xi initiate a call to Trump now. For PRC, leader-level talks are by definition successful. Extensive preparations are made to guard against surprise or failure. That option is not available to Beijing now.
3/ In the absence of a preparatory process to tee up a leader-level call, PRC officials are unsure what Trump might say. They don’t want to own responsibility for setting Xi up to be humiliated by Trump on world stage. PRC leaders do not typically wade into detailed negotiations.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 8
1/ Based on ongoing discussions in China, I am skeptical Beijing will blink on Pres. Trump’s recent tariff escalation threats. Chinese leaders understand holding firm will be economically costly. They’re preparing public to tolerate pain. Politics may drive decisions. (🧵).
2/ Beijing doesn’t expect any breakthroughs or negotiations with Trump administration on horizon. They are digging in. They do not have clarity on what Trump is trying to achieve and are filling the vacuum with their own assumption, i.e., Trump’s goal is to undermine PRC economy.
3/ PRC leaders are skeptical that capitulating to Trump’s latest demands would resolve underlying challenge from the United States, which they judge is to undermine PRC economic strength. From this vantage, they assume there is little incentive to make concessions now.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5
1/ The past several days have been an interesting time to visit China for meetings with government officials, scholars, business leaders, etc. A few brief reflections: counterparts have emphasized China’s leaders will not countenance being seen as passive in response to US (🧵).
2/ Beijing’s response to US tariff announcement on April 2 was on more robust end of their menu. Beijing’s countermeasures included reciprocal tariff hike of 34%; tighter export controls, including on rare earths; etc. Beijing targeted Trump supporters and sensitive sectors.
3/ There appears to be a widely held view among China’s policy community that Trump’s announcement is designed to undermine China’s economic competitiveness, rather than as a source of leverage for negotiations to resolve specific trade irritants. This colored PRC response.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
1/ Friends in Taiwan can be forgiven for feeling discomforted by yesterday’s blowup between Trump and Zelensky. The incident laid bare Trump’s indifference to defending democracy and pushing back against aggressors. Even so, I would caution against succumbing to fatalism. (🧵🪡)
2/ Trump is under pressure to end conflict in Ukraine. He is changing the narrative. In Trump’s telling, Putin is not the villain, Russia is not the aggressor, and Ukraine is an obstacle to establishing a new concert of great powers to manage the international system.
3/ Trump’s rewriting of history is troubling. So, too, is the weak way in which previously principled US leaders caved to Trump’s narrative and condemned Zelensky. This calls into question whether US Congressional leaders would speak up for Taiwan if Trump chooses not to.
Read 6 tweets

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