Ryan Hass Profile picture
Jun 22, 2021 9 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ Out today! “#GlobalChina: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World” is a current, broad-scope, and fact-based resource for understanding China — no longer a “rising power,” but rather a global actor. brook.gs/3iFfXf9
.@RepAdamSchiff applauds the “clear set of recommendations” and “insights from an impressive array of experts” discussed in our forthcoming title, #GlobalChina: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World. brook.gs/3iFfXf9 Image
3/ In the new edited volume #GlobalChina, @ProfTalmadge argues that competition in the U.S.-China nuclear relationship is intensifying.

Read her analysis and suggestions for policymakers as the relationship heats up: brook.gs/3iFfXf9 Image
4/ .@AngelaStent examines the rationale for the growing relationship between China & Russia and potential implications for the United States. Image
5/ According to @MichaelEOHanlon, China’s escalating skirmishes in the gray-zone could lead to military escalation.

See O’Hanlon’s recommendation for a policy of asymmetric defense in the new edited volume #GlobalChina Image
6/ .@SophieHRW discusses China’s impact on the UN Human Rights Council and suggests that member-nations concerned about human rights need to coordinate thoughtfully to limit Chinese influence there. Image
7/ This is a small sampling of the 37 chapters of the book that address the full range of issues relating to China's rise, from global governance to economic issues, technology, great power relations, regional issues, and so much more.
8/ The book is designed to be comprehensive and diverse, both in the issues examined and the viewpoints expressed. We hope the book contributes to understanding of what kind of global power China will be and how its rise will impact the US and others.
9/ It's been wonderful working w/ @ChhabraT, @RushDoshi, and @EmilieAKimball, joining w/ @BrookingsPress, and benefitting from @MaloneySuzanne and @brucebrookings guidance. The authors brought the book to life. @FordFoundation and @ElizabethKnup made it all possible. Thank you!

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More from @ryanl_hass

Jun 16
1/ This is an interesting scoop by @dimi, @leahyjoseph. My experiences from being in meetings with Xi is that he rarely is casual with comments. They're usually calculated for effect. The desired effect often is open to interpretation. Here's how I read the comments (short 🧵).
2/ Xi's reported message seems to carry mix of threat + reassurance. On reassurance side, Xi seems to be signaling that he does not presently prefer to use force to achieve PRC goals on Taiwan. He blames the US for trying to draw him into a trap and suggests he won't fall for it.
3/ Blaming America for having a nefarious plot and vowing to resist it is a pretty safe way for China's leaders to inoculate themselves internally and justify why they will not take an action that some inside the system might be agitating for.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 15
1/ While many experts in Washington debate whether China's power is peaking, there appears to be a bit of a mirror conversation in Beijing about the United States. This is one of several gaps that have emerged in perceptions of each other in recent years. Short thread 🧵...
2/ During a recent trip to Beijing and exchanges in DC with visiting PRC officials and experts, I've been struck by repetition of discussions around "rise of the east and decline of the west." A former Chinese official said this framing is consensus view of PRC leaders.
3/ As always, there is more art than science involved in determining how much these efforts are designed to inform vs influence. I suspect there would be less effort made to stress "rise of the east and decline of the west" if it already was broadly accepted, including in China.
Read 10 tweets
May 24
1/ After having had an opportunity to privately compare notes with counterparts on both sides of Taiwan Strait in recent days on President Lai's inaugural address, I am struck by the scale of the disconnect that exists between both sides. A few brief observations (🧵)...
2/ PRC counterparts I have been in touch with acknowledged being surprised by the tone and content of Lai's speech. They indicated Beijing felt it needed to dial up its response to set down a marker with Taipei and Washington, including via sharp rhetoric and military exercises.
3/ Many Taiwan counterparts I have spoken with hoped Beijing would register Lai's goodwill gestures in his speech and not overreact. All Taiwan counterparts I have spoken with expected Beijing to react ("that's what the PRC does," one said), but hoped it wouldn't be too dramatic.
Read 6 tweets
May 20
1/ President Lai delivered his inaugural address on May 20. It's worth reading. A few highlights:

Taiwan's voters voted for preserving the status quo on cross-Strait issues. Lai's speech suggests he understands his mandate. (short thread 🧵)...

english.president.gov.tw/NEWS/6726
2/ On cross-Strait issues, Lai called for dialogue and exchange over confrontation and containment. He vowed neither to yield nor provoke and pledged to maintain the status quo. He invoked the ROC constitution. These gestures seemed intended to signal continuity in approach.
3/ Lai also leaned into democracy vs. autocracy as an organizing principle of his foreign policy. Interestingly, he was largely silent on relations with the U.S., making only one direct reference to recent U.S. Congressional legislation supporting Taiwan.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 15
1/ America's partners and adversaries are closely following the House of Representatives decision not to act on the $95 foreign aid bill, which includes $5B to support Taiwan. It must feel like Christmas came early this year for China's leaders. Here's why (short 🧵):
2/ Taiwan's voters just chose William Lai as president-elect. During the campaign, Lai argued that closer US-Taiwan relationship is essential for Taiwan's security. Beijing chafes at closer US-Taiwan ties and would prefer for Taiwan to refocus on its relationship with the PRC.
3/ Beijing would like to convince Taiwan's voters that they shouldn't place their trust in America to defend them. These views have a natural audience in Taiwan, where a portion of the public is skeptical that the US would come to Taiwan's defense in crisis.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 5, 2023
1/ Whether you are a Cold War historian or a casual observer of the news, I commend this written debate to you. In a series of crisp exchanges, four leading experts make their case for whether the US and China are in a cold war. (Short thread) brookings.edu/articles/shoul…
2/ @patricia_m_kim observes that China's growth and prosperity hangs on its continued engagement with the outside world. She challenges the notion that China's leaders view the US as an existential threat and urges greater precision in textual analysis of PRC leaders' speeches.
@patricia_m_kim 3/ Matt Turpin argues China's leaders perceive the US as an existential threat. He says the condition of a cold war already exists between the US and China. He urges US leaders to prepare the country for long-term rivalry with a goal of outlasting China and winning w/o fighting.
Read 8 tweets

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