Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Ryan Maue Profile picture
@RyanMaue
Jun 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Digging into Portland, Oregon climatology:

Highest temperature:
🔥107°F August 8 & 10, 1981, and July 30, 1964

🌡️106°F on July 28 & 29, 2009.

Here's a gridded daily analysis (estimate) of the highest temperatures observed from May-September 1951-2020.
Blend of Models near the all-time record in Portland at 105°F and 106°F this weekend.

NWS Portland is at 102°F for 3-days in a row. 🌡️

Based upon forecast trends, I'd put even money on 105° and 10-20% chance of hitting the 107°F record. 🎰
Must post the ECMWF EPS ensembles -- model has the most vertical levels & perhaps can best resolve the Columbia River dynamics. It is flaming HOT 🔥

The ensemble median is all-time record at 108°F and majority of solutions are in the 110s. This is an unprecedented forecast ♨️
If you're shopping around for other opinions, then don't look at GFS/GEFS. Even hotter, with the downscale solution median at 114°F in Portland. 🌡️🔥

Patiently waiting for these forecast model solutions to back off -- give up -- and cool off. Not tonight.⌚️
Going back to August 1981 to look at the mid-level height pattern at 500 hPa. Not too shabby 597 dm ridge centered over Redding California.

Weekend has > 597 dm "heat dome" centered much further north in eastern Washington, almost into Canada. Certainly a different beast.
Height field from July 29, 2009 when Portland when to 106°F on the 28th and 29th. Ridge axis extends north into the Arctic Ocean. A cut-off low is off the California coast.

Have to say that I'm now leaning more into the all-time record being shattered at PDX.

Keep 👀🌡️
The max stat caught my eye -- 601 dm ridge over Morocco on July 30, 2009.
I'd suppose it was extremely hot under that.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ryan Maue

Ryan Maue Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RyanMaue

Ryan Maue Profile picture
Sep 6
Most extreme submarine volcanic eruption in recorded history spewed insane amount of water into the stratosphere -- and it is ALL still up there (H2O potent greenhouse gas) -- and no one can connect the dots.

Most important climatic events since Tambora and Krakatoa. 🌋
1.5°C is dead as long as that water vapor remains in the stratosphere. And it's not being removed faster than new water vapor from troposphere is being added.

I've looked at the maps. We're down bad. 📉
Can you pick out when the water vapor was spewed into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga? 🌋

This upcoming winter will finally see the "Full Load" of impacts from that gargantuan deposit of ocean water 20 to 50 miles up. Image
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Sep 2
The Atlantic tropics are completely broken, unable to produce tropical storms even w/off the charts "climate fueled" oceans.

Our models no longer work, forecasters can't figure it out. This is not normal.
While Saharan dust clouds have contributed to dry and stable air just above the surface, the circulation from the Northeast Atlantic over the cold Canary Current has penetrated even more dry air deep into the tropics. We haven't seen this in 50 years.
What can cause all of this? The massive submarine Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022 is the obvious culprit for tampering with the Hadley Cell and ITCZ. But it could also be some entirely new pattern we haven't seen caused by a combination of solar activity and unprecedented warming.
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Apr 25
Sometimes the climate models work, other times they don't. But it doesn't really matter because our conclusions would remain the same.

More pseudoscience from the attribution crowd.

worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipit…
Image
No observations were used in the attribution study. Instead, reanalysis and gridded precipitation were used. Obviously that's a problem when using pre-satellite data.

Why not use local station data? Also, only back to 1950? How does that account for observed pre-industrial rainfall events?

ERA5 produces weather model output on a 0.25° grid and the authors didn't account for sub-grid scale or convective scale features, which lead to extreme downpours.Image
To do a study like this, you'd think that the event would be defined as similar upper-level weather patterns e.g. 500 mb trough or cut-off low during other El Nino years, or other similar synoptic setups.

Nope. The event is instead defined as the outcome e.g. the maximum annual rainfall in a domain.

Why not use the 20th Century reanalysis for a much longer ~200 years dataset?

Why not use Large Ensembles especially on a regional scale?

These cursory attribution reports have run their course as non-peer reviewed, press attention-grabbing blogs.

Either do them right or stop altogether and go back to normal, rigorous methods and research.
Read 8 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Apr 3
Home insurance prices have skyrocketed.

Did you notice the media effort this week to blame climate change for the increase?

Don't be fooled -- it's a massive profit grab to recoup costs from inflation and recent losses, and to normalize the "climate crisis" as the reason for insane price increases.

Let's start with FT:

"Second, climate change has also increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather, which has led to more claims covering everything from fallen roof tiles to rebuilding entire sections of homes."

ft.com/content/d3e98a…Image
"climate change has also increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather"

--> leading to more claims

The bulk of "billion dollar disasters" are due to severe convective storms e.g. wind, hail, and tornadoes with severe thunderstorms or outbreaks.

However, is this true? Is climate change to blame for an increase in insurance claims?

Not so much.
Watch this (1 of 2)

Swiss Re: Hazard intensification due to climate change to drive higher losses

Jérôme Jean Haegeli, Swiss Re’s Group Chief Economist, commented,

“Climate change is leading to more severe weather events, resulting in increasing impact on economies."

artemis.bm/news/hazard-in…Image
Read 10 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Mar 2
Climate scientists and global policy makers point to the optimal period in Earth's climate history of 1850-1900, called the pre-industrial climate -- from when the 1.5°C is calculated.

Except, it was hell and deadly for humanity.

We don't want to go back to that.
The Winter of 1886-87 across the Western U.S. is called

The Great Die-Up

"During the winter of 1886–87, hundreds of thousands of cattle across the Great Plains died during "The Big Die-Up." Was this catastrophic event the death of the Old West?"

americancowboy.com/cowboys-archiv…
Image
A Catastrophic Winter: millions of cattle died, strewn frozen across the landscape.

"In November 1886, it started to snow, and kept snowing, with a blizzard ringing in the new year. It dropped over 1.5 feet of snow across the entire region and carried with it gale-force winds and temperatures that plummeted to 50 degrees below zero. Then, things got worse. Rain fell, followed by a freeze, virtually sealing the little grass there was beneath a thick layer of snow and impenetrable ice. Cattle died of exposure and starvation, their frozen carcasses littering the plains and filling the draws."Image
Read 9 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Feb 18
A little 🧵on Category 6 hurricanes:

A seemingly arbitrary decision on where to start Category 6 underpins this paper's conclusions.

Hurricanes are called typhoons or tropical cyclones elsewhere in the world. The Atlantic sees ~1/8 of global tropical activity in avg year. Image
Proposed new Saffir Simpson Scale:

Cat 3 is 9 m/s wide
Cat 4 is 13 m/s wide
Cat 5 is 17 m/s wide (newly proposed)
with Category 6 starting at 87 m/s or 193 mph or 168 knots

A decision could be made to start Category 6 at 85 m/s so 190 mph and 165 knots is included.

Cat 5 would be 15 m/s wide (newly proposed) and we could then include a Category 7 (if necessary) at 100 m/s.Image
The historical tropical cyclone "best-track" records are a mess as outside the Atlantic as they were produced in real-time with minor post-season adjustment often w/o highest resolution or best satellite imagery available.

Hence, there are many missing Category 4's and 5's especially in the 1980s and even the 1990s in the Southern Hemisphere and even the Eastern Pacific.

A hurricane or cyclone only needs to ping 115-knots or 140-knots for 6-hours (one instance) in order for the Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI) to register Cat 4 or Cat 5. The same would be said for Category 6 -- one instance at 165-knots.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(