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Weather and Climate News and Views | PhD | Look Up 🚀 | 25+ Years Research | Weather Maps | A.I. Weather Forecasting
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Apr 3 10 tweets 5 min read
Home insurance prices have skyrocketed.

Did you notice the media effort this week to blame climate change for the increase?

Don't be fooled -- it's a massive profit grab to recoup costs from inflation and recent losses, and to normalize the "climate crisis" as the reason for insane price increases.

Let's start with FT:

"Second, climate change has also increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather, which has led to more claims covering everything from fallen roof tiles to rebuilding entire sections of homes."

ft.com/content/d3e98a…Image "climate change has also increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather"

--> leading to more claims

The bulk of "billion dollar disasters" are due to severe convective storms e.g. wind, hail, and tornadoes with severe thunderstorms or outbreaks.

However, is this true? Is climate change to blame for an increase in insurance claims?

Not so much.
Mar 2 9 tweets 4 min read
Climate scientists and global policy makers point to the optimal period in Earth's climate history of 1850-1900, called the pre-industrial climate -- from when the 1.5°C is calculated.

Except, it was hell and deadly for humanity.

We don't want to go back to that. The Winter of 1886-87 across the Western U.S. is called

The Great Die-Up

"During the winter of 1886–87, hundreds of thousands of cattle across the Great Plains died during "The Big Die-Up." Was this catastrophic event the death of the Old West?"

Feb 18 12 tweets 7 min read
A little 🧵on Category 6 hurricanes:

A seemingly arbitrary decision on where to start Category 6 underpins this paper's conclusions.

Hurricanes are called typhoons or tropical cyclones elsewhere in the world. The Atlantic sees ~1/8 of global tropical activity in avg year. Image Proposed new Saffir Simpson Scale:

Cat 3 is 9 m/s wide
Cat 4 is 13 m/s wide
Cat 5 is 17 m/s wide (newly proposed)
with Category 6 starting at 87 m/s or 193 mph or 168 knots

A decision could be made to start Category 6 at 85 m/s so 190 mph and 165 knots is included.

Cat 5 would be 15 m/s wide (newly proposed) and we could then include a Category 7 (if necessary) at 100 m/s.Image
Jan 25 4 tweets 2 min read
NY Times on how White House arrived at decision to delay U.S. LNG terminal CP2 in Louisiana:

"Ahead of the decision, White House climate advisers met with activists like Alex Haraus, a 25-year-old Colorado social media influencer who has led a TikTok and Instagram campaign aimed at urging young voters to demand that Mr. Biden reject the project." Not a controversial decision at all in the White House, of course. "Little division."

[Now you know why there's the performance art climate activism -- radical flank effect.]

"[NY Times] reported that within the White House, there is little division over the decision to delay CP2. That’s partly because the United States is already producing and exporting so much natural gas."
Jan 19 5 tweets 3 min read
Trash look from the most vocal proponent of the Arctic warming causes extreme winter cold theory Jennifer Francis: she calls Republican voters in Iowa "deniers" for not believing that global heating causes extreme cold in Iowa. Most other climate scientists don't either. Jennifer Francis is not unique in her bigoted view of Republicans among her climate science colleagues.

However, this type of partisan rhetoric is required to operate within the climate science space to receive promotion, grants, and awards. It's rather ugly.
Jan 17 6 tweets 3 min read
Climate scientists (again) blame Arctic blasts squarely on climate change.

*Note that this theory has been discredited, and the evidence/signal actually flipped sign in recent years.

Image The claim is that the "off-the-charts" warm Arctic right now is causing cold air to plunge into Texas.

Except, where does that cold air come from? Image
Jan 8 4 tweets 2 min read
Not much has changed with this weather model and the impending nationwide climate emergency.

The coldest air still bottoms out at 77°F below normal across Montana by Saturday morning.

How hard and deep will this extreme Arctic cold penetrate southward into Texas? Image Unfortunately, the forecasts are trending toward the full load of Arctic air dumping on the southern Plains and Texas with a slow but steady surge into Great Lakes.

Next Monday evening looks dangerously cold 🥶

These are "anomalies" -- actual temps are next ... Image
Oct 5, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Trying to understand what created the huge September 2023 global temperature anomaly, and we need to look at weather time-scale features substantial enough to affect the overall global temperature.

Since we know the annual cycle pretty well, on average, the Earth is warmest around August 1st and then begins to cool.

However, this year around September 7th, the annual cycle of cooling was disrupted and the actual global temperature increased.

Relative to climatology, this delayed the Earth's cooling by 2-3 weeks.

Looking back at the El Nino of 2015-16, the typical global cooling until mid-January was disrupted by a significant warming episode. Image
Jul 25, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Climate change caused the heat waves in the U.S. and Europe.

"Virtually impossible"

Are you buying this? How do you know this research isn't "specifically tailored" to achieve a predetermined conclusion?

Is the uncritical media coverage gaslighting?

Don't expect any capable scientists to bother reviewing this "super-rapid" climate attribution research article.

You're not allowed to critique the arbitrary methods, conclusions, or financial and political motivations of the authors.

So, best to treat this like 'Proximal… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jul 25, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Without climate change, July's summer heat in the U.S. Southwest would have been "virtually impossible."

I guess that's true if you memory hole 1925, 1930s, 1950s, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2012, 2020, etc. and the rest of the almanac.

Image The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and 1980 stand out as so exceptionally hot, many decades ago, that no one would say without laughing that the recent July in Texas was unprecedented.

I guess politicizing the weather means we have to suspend disbelief and erase the past.

"The past… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jul 22, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Volcanic estimate 🌋📈

Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano.

Likely off by a factor of 3.

New research suggests 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons of… https://t.co/BEnfFL2bErtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere represents an unprecedented amount injected in the stratosphere.

Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.

But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the… https://t.co/UWx5CPIBVetwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jul 18, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Guardian recently wrote an "analysis" piece about "turbo-charged" heat waves in the United States based upon these EPA climate indicators charts.

Good example of "malinformation" or cherry-picking helpful data, here in the U.S. stopped at 1960, and then ignoring the final key… https://t.co/HIeUk6vNEntwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Note, there is every indication that longer, more frequent, and intense heat waves may be occurring and are expected to occur in the future.

However, when using past data to buttress your argument, it's best to use appropriate data sources, and have a more detailed knowledge… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jul 16, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
The weather station in China reporting 52.2°C is relatively new, last few years (?)

Same with all-time cold record in January for the country.

While the observations may be certified accurate, they have no historical lineage, the period of record isn't back to 1951, or… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ⚠️Should you wonder why the national cold and hot records are set within 7 months of each other in China?

Yes, that's what happens with short period weather station records sited in notoriously hot or cold places that previously had no direct records. 🌡
Jun 28, 2023 7 tweets 4 min read
This complete nonsense:

‘Never occurred before’: How the Arctic is sizzling Texas

The Arctic is not responsible for the "heat dome" over Mexico and Texas. This whole article is another lame attempt at propping up one climate scientist's backwards theory that the Arctic… https://t.co/wZveL2sTsitwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
No evidence provided that Arctic is forcing the tropics -- just believe me. Seriously.

“The exact connections between rapid Arctic warming and the jet stream are still incompletely understood, but I think it’s safe to say that no one believes the Arctic can warm four times… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jun 12, 2023 5 tweets 3 min read
Comparison in North Atlantic ocean surface temperatures between 2022 and 2023 for June 10th. The differences might be a little hard to see at first, but the tropical latitudes are significantly warmer (more red), and the NE Atlantic off UK is more blue than purple. ImageImage The charts being shared by the millions are "anomaly" or deviations from previous 30-years, and very scary looking w/o context.

However, the North Atlantic seasonal cycle from Spring --> Summer means ocean temperatures will generally warm every day until late-August.

We are… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Jun 11, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read
For most on the political left in the media, the Canadian forest fires 1,000 miles away were directly caused by climate change, and the literal smoke "presented bankers and lawmakers with an in-your-face demonstration of what climate change looks, feels and smells like."… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ImageImage And, as the wind blew the smoke into NYC and Washington DC, air quality became unhealthy while visibility decreased to under a mile.

The skies glowed orange like Mars. Of course, the skies cleared quickly, but the political left saw portents of doom and dialed up climate… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Jun 8, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
The fires in Quebec were caused by lightning strikes, right?

It was very hot and dry recently due to a ridge of high pressure. The snow had just melted, so plenty of dead brush to burn 🔥

A cold front brought thunderstorms and lightning, starting fires over next days. That's… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Canada 🇨🇦 sees > 5 million hectares burned in some years like 1980-81, 1989, 1994-5, 1998, but lower maximums in past 20 years, even with a higher average.

The current area burned in 2023 was estimated to be over 3M hectares. Image
Jun 1, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
State Farm didn't say "climate change is making things worse," so thankfully, the Washington Post has a secret decoder ring to speak for the company.

Why didn't State Farm explicitly blame climate change for their exit of California property insurance marketplace? Image Axios initially blamed climate change and then changed their headline -- sticking to the statement put out by State Farm of "growing catastrophe exposure."
May 27, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
US Attorney in D.C. filed felony conspiracy charges against 2 delusional climate protesters involved in damaging the "Little Dancer" at National Gallery if Art.

The pair were arrested, jailed, and face a minimum of 5 years in prison.

They should plead guilty. If you do the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… https://abcnews.go.com/amp/...Image They did not act alone: More from Wash Post on far-reaching criminal conspiracy to attack the National Gallery of Art. 😡

👀 And alerted one member of the media (who was there with a camera and speedily edited the footage lickety-split for Wash Post)

"The indictment also… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… https://www.washingtonpost....
May 27, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
🚫 Do you like unaccountable international politbureaus who work with governments to censor your speech under the guise of fighting disinformation on social media platforms?

Then, behold the brand new
International Panel on the Information Environment https://www.nytimes.com/202... "The International Panel on the Information Environment, has registered as a NGO in Zurich at a time when the fight against misinformation has become increasingly mired in a broader erosion of trust in government, news organizations and other public institutions."
May 25, 2023 6 tweets 5 min read
The fact-check on hurricane science by @Independent is inaccurate, poorly worded, and spreads dangerous misinformation.

The number of global major hurricanes has not increased | is not increasing | and is not expected to increase. ImageImage Article is still incorrect.

The author claims that "Florida governor repeats common misconception about climate change and fierce storms."

In reality, the author is spreading misinformation. The "number of Category 3 storms or higher" is not rising. That's a lie. ImageImage