Thread by @HaBahrami

Thread

Regarding #AfghanistanGreatGame:

Few weeks ago, I told EpochTimes:

“Today, the Iranian government backs the Afghani constitution while its IRGC trains and weaponizes the Taliban. Iran has a complicated relationship with the Taliban. 1/1

theepochtimes.com/irans-long-sta…

Though all these meetings are happening, Iran is also skeptical about the Taliban’s loyalties, particularly in light of its links with other regional players. And the Taliban can become an enemy to the Iranian regime if the US wishes it to do so. 1/2

#AfghanistanGreatGame

In other words, U.S. policy can determine what stance the Taliban take toward Iran. To manage the Sunni-majority Taliban, Iran is also trying to simultaneously build its proxies by working with the Shi’ite militants. 1/3

#AfghanistanGreatGame

As a Shia-dominated nation, Iran has a history of ideological differences and political rivalry with the Sunni-dominated Taliban, and this can’t be understood without understanding Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s equation inside Afghanistan and in the wider region. 1/4

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran inside Afghanistan is based on their agenda for religious expansionism. Saudi brands itself as the leader of the Islamic world, particularly Sunni; the Iranian regime does the same regarding Shi’ite. 1/5

#AfghanistanGreatGame

Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Afghanistan have millions of Shi’ite populations, for which both Saudi and Iran have found themselves in battlegrounds to back their religious proxies. These religious proxies have become political and military forces in all these countries. 1/6

Saudi had a long and deep relationship with the Afghan Sunni fighters who fought against the Soviet-backed government in Kabul in the 1980s. Then,in the mid-1990,Saudi along with Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates became the only three countries to recognize the Taliban in
1/7

Afghanistan. … However, 9/11 changed the game in favor of Iran. Post-9/11 Saudi Arabia had to distance itself from the Taliban because of its traditional alliance with the United States, and this vacuum created an opportunity for Iran. 1/8

#AfghanistanGreatGame

tactical and strategic games” between Saudi and Iran need to be understood to fathom Afghanistan preparing for the Sept. 11 troop drawdown.
“Today, Saudi is trying to build a better relationship with Kabul government, pressuring Pakistan to push the Taliban toward a peace
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process as well as distancing itself from Iran. Saudi tries to develop a relationship with some politicians like Abdullah Abdullah,who had a very close relationship with Iran and other Shi’ite groups. Pakistan& Iran are unhappy with Saudi support for the government in Kabul. 1/10

Iran feels the threat of losing its Shi’ite friends, and Pakistan is angry because Islamabad has tried to weaken these anti-Taliban individuals and groups. With all its covert and overt tactics and defenses and offenses, Iran can’t be avoided in
1/11

#AfghanistanGreatGame

today’s Afghanistan peace process, and it should be forced to play a positive role. In wake of the new deadline for western troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Iran has a few opportunities to increase its influence within Afghanistan and to strengthen its interests. 1/12

Bahrami said Iran has a greater opportunity to enable IRGC to build its own Shi’ite proxy and to exploit the situation to develop Shi’ite fundamentalism. After Sept. 11,neither the Afghani government nor the Taliban will be able to restrict the IRGC forces in Afghanistan. 1/13

Remember that Soleimani’s successor, Qaani, was Soleimani’s man in Afghanistan affairs. Iran’s presence in Afghanistan directly or indirectly seriously threatens the interests of the United States, the West. Iran also has enough capacity to disrupt the democratization
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process, which should be the U.S. ultimate goal in the long run.

Bahrami said that Biden’s troop withdrawal, which creates space for greater IRGC influence inside Afghanistan, will become doubly fatal if it eases the maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which has
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restricted the IRGC’s capacity to expand its influence to neighboring countries. Iran’s other current opportunity in Afghanistan is to exploit its geography in the competition between India and Pakistan. This situation gives some leverage to Iran regarding India.
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In order for India to secure its interests against Pakistan and China, India would need to cooperate with the IRGC in economic, political, and security issues. So far, the U.S. forces’ presence in Afghanistan has restricted Iran from pursuing such activities.
1/17

After U.S. withdrawal, the balancer [the United States] doesn’t exist. In this situation, the Taliban and the Kabul government will keep on weakening themselves at a time when both need to prepare for a possible fight against a powerful ISIS.
1/18

#AfghanistanGreatGame

ISIS is an extreme threat for Iran, Iran will try to back the Taliban to fight against ISIS but without destroying ISIS, because Iran’s agenda is to keep the crisis alive. At the same time when the Kabul government and ISIS are
1/19

#AfghanistanGreatGame

fighting against each other, the IRGC will keep building a powerful Shi’ite proxy.”
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