Leading Nowhere Profile picture
Jun 24, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Bizarre and brazen moves are common on the penny stock side of the stock exchanges. Vikas Proppant and Granite Ltd just released this intimation, announcing en-masse resignation of the entire management and board of the company to "bring in professional management". (1/7)
The shares of this company were heavily manipulated in the last 2 years, following the typical pattern of operators hand-in-hand with enabling management. Here's a look at the stock chart. Take a look at the volumes before the rise and the volume of trapped retailers after. (2/7)
Company has had almost no revenue in the last 3-4 years, except for a brief blip in 2019 when the stock prices also went up 6-8x in a very short span of time. In fact, it has been selling fixed assets this year. (3/7)
There's this hilarious announcement in January 2021, attempting to pump the stock based on "personal" visit by promoter to operation site, and use of heavy jargon for what is essentially mining rock out of the ground. (4/7)
Here's another announcement in July 2020 talking about 'share grabbing' and invitation to shareholders (hand-picked by management) for a site visit and personal chat with the erstwhile MD. (5/7)
Interesting to note that the previous MD, B.D. Aggarwal, passed away in September 2020. Quite likely the shenanigans started earlier during his tenure, and now the rest of the promoter group finally caught up and decided to exit the ship that was worse than sunk. (6/7)
While the utility of this analysis is minimal at best, it does serve as a useful reference point to recognize stock pumping. With experience, such manipulations are easy to spot even while they're taking place. The real game, of course, is spotting the sophisticated ones ;) (7/7)

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More from @leading_nowhere

Feb 14
Start of a golden period folks, hopefully. If anything like 2018-2020, we'll get awesome valuations to buy this year. Very happy to see decimation of stupidity and over-confidence. DYOR and don't rely again on social media charlatans feeding you bullshit. You are now educated.
India, as always, grows despite everything and not because of anything specific. As I have said before, it's never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems either. Markets will swing to extremes, you benefited on one side, now you have to ensure on the other.
I don't think smallcaps and microcaps are still cheap, but it is now the phase of just sell everything and move to safety. This means good stuff will also get irrationally cheap, the same way things drifted upwards and you enjoyed it, now you differentiate quality from crap.
Read 15 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
Read that BIS is refusing to certify factories in China and Vietnam and this is 'aimed at promoting local manufacturing'. Regulatory arbitrage businesses tend to be hot trends in the stock market. Not sure it's good for us as consumers, though.

(1/6) Image
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If state wishes to promote domestic manufacturing, it can put tariff controls like it does for solar modules. If it wishes to promote better quality, it puts standards and BIS enforces them. BIS does not 'promote domestic manufacturing'; its function is quite different.

(2/6)
BIS exists to enforce quality standards. While imposing BIS standard itself can be a subtle instrument of foreign policy, BIS here is selecting *among* compliant manufacturers rather than certifying compliance. There is a key difference which is hopefully understood.

(3/6) Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 9, 2024
Star Health employee offers direct illegal API access to full customer medical records for $43,000; then stiffs buyer, asking $150k because 'senior management' wants a cut, buyer then promptly blows the whistle in retaliation. How incompetent could you be at white collar crime?
Had one job, (a) don't leave a trail and (b) don't cheat your accomplices. Wasn't that difficult to get away with. Have to be operating with zero fear of consequences to be this careless. Darwin award candidate. Video of interactions with employee here: archive.org/details/553521
Adding some screenshots from the video + LinkedIn profile of the alleged perpetrator. Image
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
SEBI finally going after the finfluencer-broker nexus. Right time to point out Zerodha founders have tried all along to whitewash their role by acting holier than thou. One of them was caught cheating in an exhibition charity match with Vishwanathan Anand too. Leopard's spots...
So while on one side you have the founders going around 'cautioning' the retail public on trading and speculation, on the other side you have a massive funnel of fraud finfluencers directing traffic your way, driving the thousands of crores in profits. The house always wins.
The funnel relies on psychological manipulation and relies on a layer of separation (finfluencer)...history of speculation has shown that warnings and data rarely work where greed and manipulation are concerned...behave like a saint and just let psychology do the work for you.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4, 2023
EKI Energy...a story.

Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report.

But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials.

(1/12)

Management has recognised revenue, AGAINST opinion of auditor, in absence of fulfillment of contractual performance obligations!

In polite words, this seems to be fake revenue. 190 crore sales (~10%) and 110 crore (~40%) PAT. Almost half PAT is possibly...non-existent.

(2/12)
Now, EKI has STILL not released Q4FY23 results. It says this is because Walker Chandiok has to re-audit H1FY23 which was done by previous auditor. Seems like a valid reason, except it begs the question - why wasn't re-audit of H1FY23 being done since Nov'22?

(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
May 6, 2022
1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield:

5x = 20%
10x = 10%
20x = 5%
30x = 3.3%
50x = 2%

As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?
2/ If you're worried about inflation and interest rates, just remember:

A 10% bond purchased at FV 100 is at 10 PE.
A 5% bond at FV 100 is at 20 PE.

It is a very simple way to analyze how much extra you'd pay for equity if I could give you a safe 10% bond instead?
3/ Yes, we are in equities for the unlimited upside, but once you spend a few years in the market and experience the realities, you will get a razorsharp focus on wanting to pay less and get more.

A steady-state earnings yield analysis is an excellent way to get perspective.
Read 10 tweets

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