Had the privilege of listening to Javed Akhtar several times at the Jashn-e-Rehta festival. He was asked to comment on why the standards of Hindi Film Music and Lyrics had been on the decline over so many years. His answer was both thought provoking and worrying.
He said that it was not that the quality of music composers or writers had deteriorated. It was the standards and quality of the audiences that had declined and their inability to appreciate good music or good writing that was responsible for the poor fare that's being dished out
When I see the kind of posts or response to my tweets I can't help but think that the same has happened to Traders in recent times. A Trade is basically the expression of an idea executed thru a plan or strategy.
Managing the Trade in a dynamic market has to draw upon the original idea behind the Trade. Yet most just want to know what action will be taken under a set of circumstances without understanding the idea itself. This can be like going out fox hunting and encountering a tiger
Successful Trading is simple but not that easy. Based on what new Traders want, Trainers are coming out with ridiculous 'foolproof' and 'idiotproof' Strategies that require little or no thought or understanding. A lot of junk is being peddled in the name of 'Systems Trading'
Comparisons are drawn with the likes of Jim Simons without mentioning that the systems his team Trades require a bunch of the world's best mathematicians to design and maintain and require supercomputers to scan the Markets and execute the Trades
We are now in the era of the '9:20 Straddle Strategy' which are constantly attracting dumber and dumber Traders into the Market. Telegram groups which encourage new Traders to take Trades without even wanting to understand the logic are proliferating- and being lapped up
All this is bound to end badly and I anticipate a big shakeout in the near future. What we really need is a far tighter regulatory framework to be put in place. The new Margins are a small step in the right direction but much more is needed
Here is some regulation which I think would be good for Retail Traders. Anyone selling Training on a Mechanical System guaranteeing it makes money should be asked to provide evidence thru his own Trading as should anyone claiming to make a return above a threshold amount.
And I'm all for Successfull Traders doing other businesses- Training, Portfolio Management, YouTube etc. Why shouldn't they be allowed to leverage their success? It's just that the unscrupulous elements should be kept out of it.

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More from @KatariyaPran

16 Jun
During a workshop organized by Dr Tharp which I attended, he split us up into 10 groups of 3 each and had us play his Marble Game which he uses to teach the importance of Position Sizing. Each participant had to put up $100 with the winning team taking the whole pot
The game had a positive Expectancy so logically every team should have made money. Yet after some 15 draws in the 20 draw game, all but 3 of the teams were eliminated as they lost all their money. Just before the 20th draw, 2 teams were neck and neck and one way behind
On the last draw, the 2 teams increased their position size in a desperate race to win but a 10x loser was drawn bankrupting both of them. The third team with a modest return won the game and pocketed the $3000
Read 5 tweets
15 Jun
My largest Portfolio investment is HDFC Life. For a year until March I was merrily making 20-25 a month selling Straddles even as it went from 550 to 740. Unfortunately it suffered a 10% DD to 660. Showing signs of life again. Hope to resume Straddle selling when it reaches 700
Ok. Decided to start early. Sold a July 700 Straddle for 50
Even Option Sellers can be directional. Why should the buyers have all the fun?😀
Read 4 tweets
19 May
I disagree with the view that hedges are used by Indian Traders to protect themselves. Actually a majority of Traders here use hedges just to reduce the Margin in a Trade so that they can take more Trades. This motive actually increases their Risk.
So say you sell a BnF Straddle for 400 for which you utilize a Margin of Rs 1.5 lacs per lot. Say the Trader does 6 lots utilizing Rs 9 lacs. Now to cut down his Margin he buys the wings 400 points away for 100 resulting in the Margin coming down to Rs 1 lac per lot.
However, given the mentality of the typical Retail Trader, who wants to maximize his use of Margin, he now sells 9 lots instead of 6. So now he has reduced his POP by almost 30% because his Breakeven is down from 400 to 300.
Read 9 tweets
8 Apr
Samir Arora'a talk on How To Build an Equity Portfolio is one of the most fascinating and profound things I have heard on the Markets. We are conditioned to believe that Money is made in Markets thru our ability to pick the very best performers in the Market.
He turns the proposition on it's head and shows that if we had a Portfolio of 30 Stocks and average Stock in Portfolio was only the 90th best in the Nifty-combination of say some being 50th best and others 150th best- then we would be up 56x times over 15 years vs 7x for Nifty!
This is a return which very few have seen. He then argues that it is impossible for anyone to pick the best performing stocks in any Market due to it's random nature. So Steve Jobs had only 20% of his holdings in Apple while 80% was in Disney,
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr
Sachin Vaze was suspended only when the NIA was allowed to investigate. ATS suddenly started finding evidence against him. Today the new CP has come out with reports casting serious aspersions on the functioning of the whole Dept.
Can we really trust the Mumbai Police or the Maha Govt to get to the bottom of this sordid affair? It is so much beyond the 'federal structure' being threatened as the Maha Govt would have us believe. The very faith of citizens in law and order has been shaken to the core
I hope SC throws out the appeal with some stinging observations. I also hope that no 'Political deals' are made to hush up the issue. Many Politicians, who are undoubtedly involved, need to feel the full force of the law and face the consequences for this betrayal of democracy
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
The more I trade, the more convinced I get that the most improvements in performance come not from discovering some brilliant strategy or even in it's execution but from cutting down common mistakes- most of which are common too and well documented for most Traders
Despite being aware of it and working on it for ages, my biggest flaw remains letting the losses in a few of my Trades run too far. These mistakes are not many but they still end up dragging my Performance by a few percentage points.
Yet I find many Traders seem to wear some large losses as a 'badge of honor'. Something that must be tolerated in the quest for possible gains. Who knows- it may actually work for them. Personally I would like to get out with a small loss than hang on in the hope of a larger gain
Read 4 tweets

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