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Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Jun 25, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

There's a tonne of additional Brexit-related changes coming down the pipe. We're not done with the upheaval yet!

I've laid out the timeline for these changes below.

30 June 2021: Deadline to apply for the EU Settlement Scheme in the UK.

1 July 2021: New EU VAT regime, affecting sales into the EU market by non-EU firms. Elimination of VAT exemption on low value consignments (previously up to EUR 22) so all goods imported into the EU will be liable to VAT.
ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

1 July 2021: HTA licences required to import or export human tissue and cells between GB and the EEA.
hta.gov.uk/importing-and-…

1 July 2021: Marriage Visitor visas required to visit the UK to get married for people or their family who are from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein (unless they are Irish citizens, or have gone through the EU Settlement Scheme).
gov.uk/marriage-visa

1 October 2021: National IDs are no longer valid for most travel to the UK. Instead, passports will be required. Impacts school trips, language and cultural exchanges etc.

(NOTE: National IDs are mandatory in most EU countries, so many children won't have passports.)

1 October 2021: Importers of animal products will have to pre-notify officials.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1 January 2022: CE mark will no longer be valid for goods on the UK market. New UK mark required instead, at extra cost and double the certification effort. (UK manufacturers will also need CE marks to sell their products in the EU.)

1 January 2022: Introduction of customs declarations on all goods coming into the UK, as well as safety and security declarations. Deferred customs declaration scheme ends.

NOTE: This has already been delayed, so could end up delayed again.
gov.uk/guidance/delay…

1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks begin on animal products, and on high-risk plant products coming from the EU to the UK.

Again, like the customs declarations, the UK Government may decide to delay this again rather than face reality.
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

March 2022: Final "Phase 3" regime of inspections begins for plants and plant products imported from the EU to GB. Includes identity and physical SPS checks.
gov.uk/guidance/impor…

30 June 2022: EU's 18-month temporary equivalence decision on UK CCPs expires, affecting financial operations. (EU clearing members are meant to have reduced their exposure to UK CCPs by then.)
esma.europa.eu/press-news/esm…

Late 2022: EU European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) scheme begins, requiring advance registration before travel to the EU, for a fee. Cost expected to be 7 euro. ETIAS will be valid for 3 years.
ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/w…

1 January 2023: End of grace period for registering chemicals in the UK under the old system.

Duplicate registration effort (UK and EU) required going forward.

Please let me know if there are any other upcoming deadlines I've missed. Thanks.

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More from @edwinhayward

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Jun 23

(1/7)

Brexit's impacts haven't vanished.

Prices are higher. NHS waiting lists are longer. Some businesses struggle to hire staff.

These aren't just "post-Covid" or "global issues".

Brexit changed how Britain trades & works. That still shapes daily life.

(2/7)

But people aren’t talking much about Brexit anymore.

Why? Not because it’s fixed. It’s because the connection got blurry.

When problems stack up (energy bills, war, inflation), it’s hard to spot which bit comes from Brexit.

(3/7)

Think of it like this: Brexit built a speed bump on Britain’s road.

Now we drive over it every day. We feel the jolt, but we call it "bad suspension" or "potholes" (cost of living, NHS delays).

We don’t always blame the bump.

Read 7 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

May 9

There is no US trade deal.

Despite the performative circus yesterday, Starmer on Zoom in Trump's Oval Office press conference, there is no deal.

All that exists is a document setting out in general terms the parameters of a possible deal.

Everything remains to be negotiated.

SOURCE
gov.uk/government/pub…

That explains why two senior Trump staffers talked about chlorinated chicken within minutes of Trump's press conference yesterday: despite what the document says, they know the deal's FAR from finalised.

They see it as a sticking point to be swept away before the Real Thing.

Read 6 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

May 8

THREAD: My initial take on the new US trade deal

1. It's not finalised. According to the NYT, months of negotiations lie ahead.

2. Issue of food standards isn't dead yet, according to comments made in Trump's press conference (even though the UK side believe it is!)

1/6

3. Not clear what concessions have been made to the USA on agricultural products but their deal readout suggests a "US$250 million opportunity" for US exporters that wasn't there before.

4. British car manufacturers are better off than this morning, but not than months ago.

2/6

5. UK film industry was not part of the discussion. Starmer said this afternoon at his press conference that if tariffs are imposed in the future that would have to be discussed in the same spirit as other sectors.

6. Britain has agreed to Trump's 10% baseline tariffs.

3/6

Read 7 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 21, 2024

Some more experiments with AI music generation. See what you think...

(One video per tweet. Each includes a static image with the song as soundtrack. Links to Youtube versions at end of thread, together with a rundown of the tools I used to produce them.)

1. Humanity Ascendant

Tomorrow's Tomorrow

Technological Progress

Read 5 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 20, 2024

Perhaps it's unworkable, but this feels like it would be a fair tax system...

1) Set the tax free allowance so that it is the same as annualised minimum wage, and raise it every year in line with inflation. Do the same for NI thresholds. So someone on exactly the minimum wage will never pay tax/NI. If it's really meant to be the "minimum" people need to live on, then let them keep all of it.

2) No clawbacks of the tax free allowance no matter your income level. Everyone gets the same untaxed band.

3) Eliminate all 100%+ tax situations. Work should always pay, regardless of the combination of salary and benefits you're receiving. Set a maximum (say 75% combined for tax + NI) and fiddle with the tax system so there are no cliff edges that create effective tax rates above that 75%. In other words, if your income from any source increases by £1, you should never gain less than 25p.

4) Tax every source of income exactly the same. EVERYTHING falls under the same regime - salary, dividends, capital gains, etc. - with no loopholes or exceptions. (If expensive tax lawyers are left twiddling their thumbs, you know the revised system is working.)

5) Adjust all the rest of the income tax and national insurance bands above the sacrosanct "no tax/no NI" lowest band to allow for 1) to 4). This will almost certainly require more tax bands and more granularity.

Net result:
- There's a sense of basic fairness across society: everyone earning at or over the annualised minimum wage (regardless of the source of the money) gets to keep at least the annualised minimum wage component of their total income.
- Work always pays, period.
- There's no point at all in trying to optimise how you make money or game the system because all sources of income are taxed exactly the same

Ok, over to you. What do you think? Be gentle, please. It may well be a naive plan, but it's a naive well-intentioned plan.

Added:

I also believe that NI should be eliminated and there should be just one combined tax.

But that's not necessary for anything I've outlined above - it just makes things simpler, especially when you're taxing ALL income from ALL sources the same - so I left it out.

Added: Minimum wage is about £20,500 for a 48-week year of 40-hour weeks.

Removing both the income tax and the NI from that would leave over £2,200 more in the employee's pocket.

(MSE income tax calculator below.)

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 11, 2024

THREAD

As Labour are coming up to 100 days in power, it's good to ponder why their honeymoon was so short, and why they appear to be getting a torrid time from media outlets all across the political spectrum.

I've illustrated what I believe is happening. More below...

1/4

The average person's expectations of the Tories was VERY low. Yet they underperformed even that low bar.

On the other hand, people had high hopes of Labour. The gap between such stellar expectations and reality is wider than on the Tory side - even though Labour are better.

2/4

Dashed hopes can be a terrible thing. Especially after 14 years of despair. So it's hardly surprising that there has been a good deal of negative reaction and pushback.

Labour urgently need to improve their various stances to come much closer to what people expect of them.

3/4

Read 4 tweets

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