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Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Jun 25, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

There's a tonne of additional Brexit-related changes coming down the pipe. We're not done with the upheaval yet!

I've laid out the timeline for these changes below.

30 June 2021: Deadline to apply for the EU Settlement Scheme in the UK.

1 July 2021: New EU VAT regime, affecting sales into the EU market by non-EU firms. Elimination of VAT exemption on low value consignments (previously up to EUR 22) so all goods imported into the EU will be liable to VAT.
ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

1 July 2021: HTA licences required to import or export human tissue and cells between GB and the EEA.
hta.gov.uk/importing-and-…

1 July 2021: Marriage Visitor visas required to visit the UK to get married for people or their family who are from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein (unless they are Irish citizens, or have gone through the EU Settlement Scheme).
gov.uk/marriage-visa

1 October 2021: National IDs are no longer valid for most travel to the UK. Instead, passports will be required. Impacts school trips, language and cultural exchanges etc.

(NOTE: National IDs are mandatory in most EU countries, so many children won't have passports.)

1 October 2021: Importers of animal products will have to pre-notify officials.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1 January 2022: CE mark will no longer be valid for goods on the UK market. New UK mark required instead, at extra cost and double the certification effort. (UK manufacturers will also need CE marks to sell their products in the EU.)

1 January 2022: Introduction of customs declarations on all goods coming into the UK, as well as safety and security declarations. Deferred customs declaration scheme ends.

NOTE: This has already been delayed, so could end up delayed again.
gov.uk/guidance/delay…

1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks begin on animal products, and on high-risk plant products coming from the EU to the UK.

Again, like the customs declarations, the UK Government may decide to delay this again rather than face reality.
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

March 2022: Final "Phase 3" regime of inspections begins for plants and plant products imported from the EU to GB. Includes identity and physical SPS checks.
gov.uk/guidance/impor…

30 June 2022: EU's 18-month temporary equivalence decision on UK CCPs expires, affecting financial operations. (EU clearing members are meant to have reduced their exposure to UK CCPs by then.)
esma.europa.eu/press-news/esm…

Late 2022: EU European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) scheme begins, requiring advance registration before travel to the EU, for a fee. Cost expected to be 7 euro. ETIAS will be valid for 3 years.
ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/w…

1 January 2023: End of grace period for registering chemicals in the UK under the old system.

Duplicate registration effort (UK and EU) required going forward.

Please let me know if there are any other upcoming deadlines I've missed. Thanks.

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More from @edwinhayward

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 21, 2024

Some more experiments with AI music generation. See what you think...

(One video per tweet. Each includes a static image with the song as soundtrack. Links to Youtube versions at end of thread, together with a rundown of the tools I used to produce them.)

1. Humanity Ascendant

Tomorrow's Tomorrow

Technological Progress

Read 5 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 20, 2024

Perhaps it's unworkable, but this feels like it would be a fair tax system...

1) Set the tax free allowance so that it is the same as annualised minimum wage, and raise it every year in line with inflation. Do the same for NI thresholds. So someone on exactly the minimum wage will never pay tax/NI. If it's really meant to be the "minimum" people need to live on, then let them keep all of it.

2) No clawbacks of the tax free allowance no matter your income level. Everyone gets the same untaxed band.

3) Eliminate all 100%+ tax situations. Work should always pay, regardless of the combination of salary and benefits you're receiving. Set a maximum (say 75% combined for tax + NI) and fiddle with the tax system so there are no cliff edges that create effective tax rates above that 75%. In other words, if your income from any source increases by £1, you should never gain less than 25p.

4) Tax every source of income exactly the same. EVERYTHING falls under the same regime - salary, dividends, capital gains, etc. - with no loopholes or exceptions. (If expensive tax lawyers are left twiddling their thumbs, you know the revised system is working.)

5) Adjust all the rest of the income tax and national insurance bands above the sacrosanct "no tax/no NI" lowest band to allow for 1) to 4). This will almost certainly require more tax bands and more granularity.

Net result:
- There's a sense of basic fairness across society: everyone earning at or over the annualised minimum wage (regardless of the source of the money) gets to keep at least the annualised minimum wage component of their total income.
- Work always pays, period.
- There's no point at all in trying to optimise how you make money or game the system because all sources of income are taxed exactly the same

Ok, over to you. What do you think? Be gentle, please. It may well be a naive plan, but it's a naive well-intentioned plan.

Added:

I also believe that NI should be eliminated and there should be just one combined tax.

But that's not necessary for anything I've outlined above - it just makes things simpler, especially when you're taxing ALL income from ALL sources the same - so I left it out.

Added: Minimum wage is about £20,500 for a 48-week year of 40-hour weeks.

Removing both the income tax and the NI from that would leave over £2,200 more in the employee's pocket.

(MSE income tax calculator below.)

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Oct 11, 2024

THREAD

As Labour are coming up to 100 days in power, it's good to ponder why their honeymoon was so short, and why they appear to be getting a torrid time from media outlets all across the political spectrum.

I've illustrated what I believe is happening. More below...

1/4

The average person's expectations of the Tories was VERY low. Yet they underperformed even that low bar.

On the other hand, people had high hopes of Labour. The gap between such stellar expectations and reality is wider than on the Tory side - even though Labour are better.

2/4

Dashed hopes can be a terrible thing. Especially after 14 years of despair. So it's hardly surprising that there has been a good deal of negative reaction and pushback.

Labour urgently need to improve their various stances to come much closer to what people expect of them.

3/4

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Aug 12, 2024

This is what Flux-AI gave me in response to the prompt: "The most quintessentially English scene possible".

Here is Dall-E-3's attempt.

(Same prompt. I'm not picking and choosing. I gave each AI just one shot at it.)

And here's SD3-Turbo's attempt.

Read 5 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Jul 7, 2024

THREAD: The BBC have been having an absolute shocker the last couple of days.

Let's concentrate on 3 specific examples.

Example 1: Laura Kuenssberg's diabolic introduction to her interview with Ed Davey.

No spoilers. Wait until the end. It's worth it.

Example 2: The case of the quietly changed headline.

Original one (left)

Changed version a few hours later (right).

Remember, the one on the left is the one most of the BBC News website visitors will have been exposed to. web.archive.org/web/2024070606…
web.archive.org/web/2024070622…

Example 3: Eye-popping headline and bizarrely framed article about the Far Right's failure to meet expectations in France's election.

Objectivity be damned.
archive.ph/kkQx5

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward

@edwinhayward

Jul 2, 2024

This is not the election for protest votes.

For the first time, we could demote the Tories to third. Winning fewer seats than the LibDems would wipe them out as a political force.

Polls suggest this is within reach, but we need tactical voting to get us over the line.

1/12

Our choice is stark:

5 long years of the Tories in Opposition, pushing a hate-filled agenda of culture wars and immigrant-bashing.

Or the LibDems in Opposition, holding Labour to account on the issues that matter, with the Tories fuming, impotent, on the back benches.

2/12

If the Tories are in Opposition as the 2nd largest party, they get:
- 6 questions a week at PMQs
- Guaranteed coverage from media outlets with "due impartiality" requirements
- 17 Opposition Days to push their agenda and hold votes
- Almost £1 million in extra Short Money

3/12

Read 12 tweets

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