The past 6 months I have been working to determine my personal (and biased) quality score for most of the companies on my checklist and others I see on fintwit.
Valuation was not a part of this score. Also, this list is not meant to be a stock recommendation.
In order to assign a quality score, I used standard parameters to score aspects such as:
- Management
- Culture
- Financial Resilience
- Moat
- Competitive landscape
- Potential
- Past performance
- Share dilution
- Risks
I am sharing this list for three reasons:
1. I put a lot of work and hours to this, so I thought that this might be useful for others on fintwit.
2. I benefit so much from investors constantly sharing valuable information in here, that I like to add some value in return.
3. I am trying to decrease my biases, so this might ignite some quality discussions. I will gladly listen if you have a different opinion. Here or in my DMs.
I am not sure if sharing is good idea, but I decided to try.
I added a valuation metric next to the quality score.
I use Enterprise Value / 2022 Gross Profit.
This a limited valuation metric but I believe it is better than P/S, P/E and other metrics when comparing companies that are growing fast and sometimes are not profitable.
Keep in mind that if I am not able to determine the competitive advantage of a company or its potential, my personal score will be lower even if this is a result of my own shortcomings.
Also, I am an investor looking for future returns so this quality score system assigns an important score to future growth, optionality and future operating leverage. Companies that have already achieved this may look low. Potential risks decrease the overall score.
Ok, so here we go: Mid-2021 Lion’s Quality Score and EV/GP 2022:
Keep in mind that these quality scores are: 1. Biased, based on my knowledge and shortcomings 2. Variable, evolving over time.
If a company, for example, improves their balance sheet, increase their competitive advantages, improves their culture, increase their earnings beats history, decreases dilution and becomes free cash flow positive the score can change considerably.
Also, good investing is not only about assessing quality, but also understanding current trends and market expectations.
A company with a QS of 65 that will evolve to 78 over the next 5 years might provide higher returns than an highly valued 82 that is not improving.
Feel free to share if you strongly disagree with any of these. This a work in process, personal, biased and certainly not perfect.
Here is the graph with all the companies:
x: EV/GP 2022
y: My Quality Score
A special shout-out to @DavidGFool and @BrianFeroldi that over the years have teached the importance of looking for quality and developing our own checklists to be methodic in our analysis.
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Struggling with the decision to add between $BABA $AMZN or $JD 🤔
$AMZN
✅ E-commerce tailwinds
✅ AWS Cloud
✅ Ads business
✅ Solid moat with logistics
🔢 Good valuation
⛔ Size/Market Cap
⛔ Jeff Bezos out
⛔ Google and Microsoft Cloud
$BABA
✅ E-commerce tailwinds
✅ AliCloud
✅ Potential Multiple Expansion
✅ Margin Expansion w/Cloud
✅ Higher Growth %
🔢 Cheapest valuation
⛔ China Anti-trust
⛔ Jack Ma
⛔ More E-commerce competition
After the recent sell off, I just compiled the P/GP for 2022 for core holdings and watchlist:
$FB 8.4x
$SE 23.7x
$PINS 14x
$BABA 10x
$UPST 11.6x
$SQ 19x
$RDFN 12x
Just finished watching a great interview with @yliownyc at Capital Allocators. Thank you for bring it to my attention @EugeneNg_VCap.
I wanted to share with you some of the insights and gems that I highlighted from Yen Liow investment strategy and framework:
“I think that time arbitrage is the most powerful weapon you have in markets, on top of skill. It is an amplifier of skill. The cost of high performance is volatility, it is also the provider of it”
“I define the right tail as 5 and 10 periods of 20%+ compounded returns. What I found is that only 14% of securities above $1-billion market cap could do it, and only 3% are able to do it for 10 year rolling periods.”