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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Jun 28, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Suomen epidemia 28.6.2021: tartuntojen kasvu kiihtyy edelleen, 11 päivää sen jälkeen kun noin 2100 rajanylittäjää päästettiin Venäjältä Suomeen ilman testausta. Kasvu on nyt 7.8 prosenttia päivässä (tällä vauhdilla 9.5x kuukaudessa).
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Nyt nämä luvut rupeavat taas päivittymään kesken päivän. Viimeksi näin kävi maaliskuussa.
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Kasvu nousi 7.9 prosenttiin päivässä, eli tällä vauhdilla tartuntojen määrä 9.5-kertaistuu kuukaudessa. Tuleva uusi Pietarin reissu tulee todennäköisesti ylläpitämään tartuntojen kasvua edelleen.
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Tänään THL ilmoitti 84 tartuntaa, ei poistanut yhtään, ja tunnettu raportoinnin viive kasvoi 78 tartunnan verran. Muuttumattomalla viiveellä laskettu uusien tartuntojen määrä on 84+0+78=162 (punainen viiva).
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Suomen epidemia on 43 päivää englannin epidemiaa jäljessä, ja koulut avataan 44 päivän päästä 11. elokuuta. Oxfordissa koronaa löytyi 34 prosentilla testatuista (21-.25.6.2021).
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Testauksen määrä on pudonnut samalle tasolle kuin joululomien aikana.
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Positiivisten osuus on noussut noin 70 prosenttia vajaassa viikossa.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Dec 23
Finland's epidemic 23 Dec 2025: amount of virus in wastewater appears to have risen above the first Omicron wave. Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron; repeated waves are showing no diminishing.
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Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher
- C19 has become endemic
- constant background transmission, even outside waves
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Repeated large waves in 2023–2024, not diminishing. Notable peaks:
- Apr 2023
- Nov 2023 (highest for the entire pandemic)
- Dec 2024

These peaks are:
- comparable to or higher than Omicron 2022
- evidence against a simple “each wave gets smaller” narrative
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 30
Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. For 1-6 year olds,
- the condition showing largest increase since 2022 is Down's syndrome (Q90)
- the condition showing fastest growth since 2022 is Congenital malformations of great arteries (Q25)
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1-6 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99).
- Down's syndrome (Q90): average patient growth (2022-2025e) 14% per year = 10x in 18 years)
- fastest growing condition: other sex chromosome abnormalities, male phenotype (Q98), up 150% in 2025e
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<1 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99):
- Down's syndrome (Q90) is the most frequent diagnosis
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 11
Intellectual disabilities (F70-F79): <1 year olds are leading in terms of y/y growth. Ten percent of <1 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis in 14 year's time (2039), if current growth rates continue.
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The rise in intellectual disability among <1 year olds also shows in number of diagnoses: up roughly 11 times in 4 years. Also note the rise among 1-6 year olds.
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7-14 and 15-24 year olds are showing the highest levels of intellectual disability. If current growth rates continue, 5 percent of 7-14 and 15-24 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis by 2048 (24 years from now).
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 3
Last time I checked, unvaccinated 30-49 year olds were dying at a rate 39 times higher than those who had received two vaccine doses. Finland.

(link below) Image
Link to thread:
Grok confirms.
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Oct 27
In 30 years from now, 5 percent of 1–6 year olds and 8 percent of 25–49 year olds will be walking with white sticks, if current growth trends continue. Image
Here is the graph for all age groups, all of which are showing quite uniform y/y growth. Patients / public outpatient healthcare.
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For total population, visual disturbances and blindness have doubled since the onset of the pandemic. There has been no letup in recent years. Average growth rate is power(1.97, 1/5) = 14.5 percent per year (= 10x every ln(10)/ln(1.145)= 17 years).
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Sep 18
Malignant neoplasms (C00-C97): number of diagnoses is up year-on-year in all age groups below 50.
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Meant to say either diagnoses or patients. For 25-49 year olds, diagnoses are down 12% y/y in 2025e, but patients are up 12% y/y in 2025e.
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For 15-24 year olds, number of patients is up 1.2% y/y in 2025e while number of diagnoses is down.
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Read 33 tweets

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