1/G
On other threads I criticized estimates of COVID-19's fatality. Here I'll highlight the best estimate I've seen:
0.9% from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College.
It's being falsely criticized again.
(h/t @thereal_truther)
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
On other threads I criticized estimates of COVID-19's fatality. Here I'll highlight the best estimate I've seen:
0.9% from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College.
It's being falsely criticized again.
(h/t @thereal_truther)
https://twitter.com/thereal_truther/status/1409705530944233481
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
2/G
Ideologues often criticize the 0.9% estimate in order to downplay the severity of COVID-19 + evade policies they dislike. John Ioannidis resorted to that
judithcurry.com/2020/04/01/imp…
cato.org/blog/how-one-m…
freopp.org/jay-bhattachar…
reason.com/2021/06/22/the…
Ideologues often criticize the 0.9% estimate in order to downplay the severity of COVID-19 + evade policies they dislike. John Ioannidis resorted to that
judithcurry.com/2020/04/01/imp…
cato.org/blog/how-one-m…
freopp.org/jay-bhattachar…
reason.com/2021/06/22/the…
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1376035049481572352
3/G
In March 2020, Ferguson's team applied work from Verity et al. on China, to Great Britain (GB).
That led to an estimate of 0.9% of SARS-CoV-2-infected people dying of COVID-19; i.e. 0.9% infection fatality rate (IFR).
spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/1004…
In March 2020, Ferguson's team applied work from Verity et al. on China, to Great Britain (GB).
That led to an estimate of 0.9% of SARS-CoV-2-infected people dying of COVID-19; i.e. 0.9% infection fatality rate (IFR).
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353866306202820611
spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/1004…
4/G
That result can be checked using antibody (seroprevalence) studies that estimate the number of infected people.
Great Britain IFR inferred from UK BioBank study is ~0.9%.
ukbiobank.ac.uk/media/x0nd5sul…
static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1…
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths…
That result can be checked using antibody (seroprevalence) studies that estimate the number of infected people.
Great Britain IFR inferred from UK BioBank study is ~0.9%.
ukbiobank.ac.uk/media/x0nd5sul…
static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1…
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths…
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1356806587273379840
5/G
ONS uses the same antibody test as UK BioBank.
ONS' IFR is ~0.9% for England, + about the same or higher for the rest of GB.
(England has the largest impact on GB's IFR, since it makes up ~84% of GB's population)
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
thelancet.com/journals/lanpu…
ONS uses the same antibody test as UK BioBank.
ONS' IFR is ~0.9% for England, + about the same or higher for the rest of GB.
(England has the largest impact on GB's IFR, since it makes up ~84% of GB's population)
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
thelancet.com/journals/lanpu…
6/G
The 1st round of REACT-2 gets about the same result as ONS.
(Later rounds of REACT-2 are less reliable because of the antibody test used in REACT-2; that problem doesn't apply to ONS + BioBank)
nature.com/articles/s4146…
The 1st round of REACT-2 gets about the same result as ONS.
(Later rounds of REACT-2 are less reliable because of the antibody test used in REACT-2; that problem doesn't apply to ONS + BioBank)
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1359577362770362369
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1302268598900199425
nature.com/articles/s4146…
7/G
The WHO + the USA's CDC relied on Levin et al.'s IFR estimate:
web.archive.org/web/2021032419…
Levin et al. estimated IFR by examining antibody studies mostly from Europe + the USA. Their results matched those of Ferguson's team:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The WHO + the USA's CDC relied on Levin et al.'s IFR estimate:
web.archive.org/web/2021032419…
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1374617361194565634
Levin et al. estimated IFR by examining antibody studies mostly from Europe + the USA. Their results matched those of Ferguson's team:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
8/G
So that's at least 4 different sources supporting Imperial College's IFR estimate.
I can't think of another estimate with that much support.
(ONS, BioBank, + REACT-2 are independent of each other. Levin et al. uses all 3, but in combination with dozens of other sources.)
So that's at least 4 different sources supporting Imperial College's IFR estimate.
I can't think of another estimate with that much support.
(ONS, BioBank, + REACT-2 are independent of each other. Levin et al. uses all 3, but in combination with dozens of other sources.)
9/G
On to Verity et al., which the ~0.9% was inferred from:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Verity et al.'s reportedly assumed 12 - 13 deaths for their ~0.7% IFR estimate, when only 7 deaths happened so far.
That made contrarians mad:
judithcurry.com/2020/03/25/cov…
On to Verity et al., which the ~0.9% was inferred from:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Verity et al.'s reportedly assumed 12 - 13 deaths for their ~0.7% IFR estimate, when only 7 deaths happened so far.
That made contrarians mad:
judithcurry.com/2020/03/25/cov…
10/G
Turns out 14 people died:
science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_…
And Verity et al.'s IFR of ~0.7% for China held up well:
So Imperial College's ~0.9% estimate for Great Britain was based on work that held up.
Turns out 14 people died:
science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_…
And Verity et al.'s IFR of ~0.7% for China held up well:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1364466754337071106
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1381853779939618817
So Imperial College's ~0.9% estimate for Great Britain was based on work that held up.
11/G
IFR estimates from Ferguson's team also did well in other European nations with decent death reporting:
So it'd be nice if ideologically-motivated deniers stopped fabricating / lying about the accuracy of the team's work. 🙄
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
IFR estimates from Ferguson's team also did well in other European nations with decent death reporting:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1402024476049645570
So it'd be nice if ideologically-motivated deniers stopped fabricating / lying about the accuracy of the team's work. 🙄
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
12/G
And 0.15% IFR from the top of the thread fails because:
- it's a global IFR, while the Imperial College team's IFR was for Great Britain (IFR varies across populations)
- 0.15% is from a nonsensical paper by John Ioannidis
washingtonpost.com/opinions/witho…
And 0.15% IFR from the top of the thread fails because:
- it's a global IFR, while the Imperial College team's IFR was for Great Britain (IFR varies across populations)
- 0.15% is from a nonsensical paper by John Ioannidis
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1375935382139834373
washingtonpost.com/opinions/witho…
13/G
Some tweets addressing more of the disingenuous denialism from the Tablet article mentioned at the top of the thread.
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
Some tweets addressing more of the disingenuous denialism from the Tablet article mentioned at the top of the thread.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1409902203419205637
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1409781274911379457
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1409780566313127944
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
https://twitter.com/tabletmag/status/1409511910530183171
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