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Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
@giulio_mattioli
Jun 29, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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*** IMPORTANT NEW PAPER KLAXON ***

New paper by @lamb_wf et al. on trends & drivers of climate emissions in various sectors since 1990. Will feed into IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

I contributed to the section on transport so here's a THREAD
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
@lamb_wf Transport accounts for 14-15% of global GHG emissions according to the latest figures (2018). Most of it from road transport (11% of global emissions). Aviation is 1.6%.
Road transport is both one of the highest emitting subsectors AND one of the subsectors with the most rapid growth since 2010 (+2% per year)
Global transport emissions have virtually *doubled* since 1990. Also, unlike other sectors, we see growth in pretty much all world regions, *including Europe and North America*. East Asia is absolutely booming.
On why transport emissions have increased in Europe see this report & thread
The road subsector accounted for most growth since 2010 (+1.9% per year), but growth was even faster for inland shipping (+3.2%/yr), domestic aviation (+2.8%/yr) and international aviation (+2.7%/yr).
So why have emissions increased? Transport emissions track GDP growth (& the associated increase in travel activity) pretty closely.

Carbon intensity has remained pretty much stable. Energy intensity has decreased, but not enough to offset travel activity growth.
These are our conclusions re: transport
NB: the aviation emissions calculated in the paper ⬇️ are the total GHGs, not the total warming - which is higher because of other factors. If those factors are taken into account, aviation accounts for a higher share of warming.
See for example this recent paper
and this one doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo…

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More from @giulio_mattioli

Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Nov 6
Having grown up in Berlusconi's Italy, I can feel it in my bones that when they win the first time, it's tough, but when they win *again*, after all they've demonstrated, *that's* the really hard one to take
When it happens the first time, you can think "This is an aberration, this was a tantrum, people don't really stand behind this, this is not who we are". The second time around really brings home that yes, this is what many of "us" are & stand for.
But in a way, it cures you from populism. No there is no innocent, well-intentioned mass of people who have been misled. We live in liberal democracies with a lot of people who fundamentally reject key principles of liberal democracy.
Read 4 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Oct 18
Aviation accounts for 3.5% of climate change impact, and it's one of the sectors where emissions are increasingly most rapidly.

But where do aviation emissions come from?

The answer is in this new paper led by Frédéric Dobruszkes - THREAD doi.org/10.1016/j.jtra…Image
[Little pedantic note before we start. For various good reasons the analysis in this paper refers to "fuel burnt", not CO2 emissions. But there is an almost perfect equivalence between the two so it doesn't matter in the end]
More than half of flights globally (54.5%) are over distances of less than 1,000km. The kind of flights you could imagined substituting with trains

The problem is that these flights account for *just 17.9% of fuel burnt*. Why? Because they're short
Read 20 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Oct 2
When my German-Italian son was born in the UK, with my family name despite us not being married, the German officials initially wanted to give us a passport with the mother's name, despite him having my name on both the UK birth certificate and the Italian passport 🤦‍♂️
There is something deeply amusing (and annoying ofc) in this "We refuse to acknowledge that foreign countries exist" when dealing with foreign countries that you sometimes encounter with Behörde.
OFC this attracted the usual responses along the lines of "How dare you question the holy rules"
Read 4 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Sep 14
Aviation emissions are booming. With climate targets looming, you would expect governments to act. And yet they don't - if anything they work to make sure that emissions increase even further. But why?

The answer is in @verahuwe_'s new article (THREAD) doi.org/10.1080/096922…
Image
@verahuwe_ [Disclaimer: there is a lot in this paper, and Vera wrote her own thread here

What I'm doing here is to give my own take on what I found most eye-opening - there is a lot more nuance in the article and you should read it
]
We tend to think of the aviation problem as one where we have this problematic sector, aviation, and then the State sitting outside of it. And we want the State to act as a REGULATOR so that emissions decrease.

What this study shows is that this is a very naive way of thinking.
Read 11 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
May 14
To me the most striking thing in this chart is how much the Italian saving rate has *declined* over time: from nearly three times as much as the UK in 2000 to less than the UK today
And if you know the Italian social system, you know how much of it is based on household savings. Middle-class parents save their whole life to buy a dwelling for their children one day. Young people stay home & save for said dwelling rather than renting, etc.
Parents (and sometimes grandparents) use their savings to support children & grandchildren who find themselves unemployed - because no, many/most of them have no right to unemployment benefits or minimum guaranteed income.
Read 6 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Apr 16
So the German government has now officially agreed to ditch sectoral emission reduction goals.

Does this mean that transport is now off the hook?

In the short term, maybe, in the long term I believe the opposite will happen (THREAD)
In Germany as in the rest of Europe, we are reducing emissions in other sectors while not reducing them (and sometimes even increasing them) in the transport sector.

So each year transport accounts for a higher share of total emissions ⬇️
I think this means that the climate debate and the transport debate will progressively become *conflated*. Most of the climate debate will be about cars and planes.

Excuses such as "Let's pick some other low-hanging fruit!" or "Let's do nuclear instead!" won't cut it.
Read 5 tweets

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