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Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
@giulio_mattioli
Jun 29, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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*** IMPORTANT NEW PAPER KLAXON ***

New paper by @lamb_wf et al. on trends & drivers of climate emissions in various sectors since 1990. Will feed into IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

I contributed to the section on transport so here's a THREAD
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
@lamb_wf Transport accounts for 14-15% of global GHG emissions according to the latest figures (2018). Most of it from road transport (11% of global emissions). Aviation is 1.6%.
Road transport is both one of the highest emitting subsectors AND one of the subsectors with the most rapid growth since 2010 (+2% per year)
Global transport emissions have virtually *doubled* since 1990. Also, unlike other sectors, we see growth in pretty much all world regions, *including Europe and North America*. East Asia is absolutely booming.
On why transport emissions have increased in Europe see this report & thread
The road subsector accounted for most growth since 2010 (+1.9% per year), but growth was even faster for inland shipping (+3.2%/yr), domestic aviation (+2.8%/yr) and international aviation (+2.7%/yr).
So why have emissions increased? Transport emissions track GDP growth (& the associated increase in travel activity) pretty closely.

Carbon intensity has remained pretty much stable. Energy intensity has decreased, but not enough to offset travel activity growth.
These are our conclusions re: transport
NB: the aviation emissions calculated in the paper ⬇️ are the total GHGs, not the total warming - which is higher because of other factors. If those factors are taken into account, aviation accounts for a higher share of warming.
See for example this recent paper
and this one doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo…

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More from @giulio_mattioli

Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Jul 4
The German Education Ministry is apparently considering introducing quotas for children with "migration background" in schools.

Under the German definition, this would include my Italian-German, UK-born, 3-language speaking child. zeit.de/politik/deutsc…Image
As the article explains, this proposal may well be unconstitutional Image
And in breach of international agreements that Germany subscribes to Image
Read 6 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Jun 20
Since Israel attacked Iran, German media outlets & journalists of all political persuasions have started questioning international law and or heralding a new age where the law of the strongest applies in international relationships.

A thread to which I will keep adding / 1
2. The ex editor of Bild, now at far-right website NIUS
3. Colum in center-left daily Süddeutsche Zeitung
Read 12 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
May 26
How far we've come. A few years ago "transport poverty" was just a niche academic concept.

Last week, the EU has published its recommendations on how to tackle transport poverty, along with a helpful data dashboard

THREAD with my first impressions transport.ec.europa.eu/news-events/ne…Image
The reason why "transport poverty" is suddenly getting attention is ETS 2, which is expected to increase motor fuel prices a lot from 2027, and the associated "Social Climate Fund" which aims at supporting groups that are vulnerable to such price increases. Image
The Commission outlines a number of eligible measures which Member States can include in their SCF plans to tackle transport poverty Image
Read 18 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Feb 25
Who is the guy who is about to become German PM?

A few remarkable things he said & did - THREAD

Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Read 6 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Feb 2
We recently published the first study to investigate the determinants of air travel behaviour with panel data.

In practice: what factors explain why someone flies more or less a few years later?

THREAD on the main findings link.springer.com/article/10.100…Image
We first review existing cross-sectional evidence on the deteminants of air travel - summarised in this table (which the reviewers didn't like so didn't make it into the final paper :) ) Image
Why it's interesting to use panel data?

1. How travel behaviour changes over the life course is interesting in and of itself

2. It provides better evidence of causality than cross-sectional data

3. Shows which groups & trends are driving rapid growth in air travel
Read 14 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Nov 6, 2024
Having grown up in Berlusconi's Italy, I can feel it in my bones that when they win the first time, it's tough, but when they win *again*, after all they've demonstrated, *that's* the really hard one to take
When it happens the first time, you can think "This is an aberration, this was a tantrum, people don't really stand behind this, this is not who we are". The second time around really brings home that yes, this is what many of "us" are & stand for.
But in a way, it cures you from populism. No there is no innocent, well-intentioned mass of people who have been misled. We live in liberal democracies with a lot of people who fundamentally reject key principles of liberal democracy.
Read 4 tweets

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