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Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
@giulio_mattioli
Jun 29, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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*** IMPORTANT NEW PAPER KLAXON ***

New paper by @lamb_wf et al. on trends & drivers of climate emissions in various sectors since 1990. Will feed into IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

I contributed to the section on transport so here's a THREAD
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
@lamb_wf Transport accounts for 14-15% of global GHG emissions according to the latest figures (2018). Most of it from road transport (11% of global emissions). Aviation is 1.6%.
Road transport is both one of the highest emitting subsectors AND one of the subsectors with the most rapid growth since 2010 (+2% per year)
Global transport emissions have virtually *doubled* since 1990. Also, unlike other sectors, we see growth in pretty much all world regions, *including Europe and North America*. East Asia is absolutely booming.
On why transport emissions have increased in Europe see this report & thread
The road subsector accounted for most growth since 2010 (+1.9% per year), but growth was even faster for inland shipping (+3.2%/yr), domestic aviation (+2.8%/yr) and international aviation (+2.7%/yr).
So why have emissions increased? Transport emissions track GDP growth (& the associated increase in travel activity) pretty closely.

Carbon intensity has remained pretty much stable. Energy intensity has decreased, but not enough to offset travel activity growth.
These are our conclusions re: transport
NB: the aviation emissions calculated in the paper ⬇️ are the total GHGs, not the total warming - which is higher because of other factors. If those factors are taken into account, aviation accounts for a higher share of warming.
See for example this recent paper
and this one doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo…

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More from @giulio_mattioli

Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
May 14
To me the most striking thing in this chart is how much the Italian saving rate has *declined* over time: from nearly three times as much as the UK in 2000 to less than the UK today
And if you know the Italian social system, you know how much of it is based on household savings. Middle-class parents save their whole life to buy a dwelling for their children one day. Young people stay home & save for said dwelling rather than renting, etc.
Parents (and sometimes grandparents) use their savings to support children & grandchildren who find themselves unemployed - because no, many/most of them have no right to unemployment benefits or minimum guaranteed income.
Read 6 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Apr 16
So the German government has now officially agreed to ditch sectoral emission reduction goals.

Does this mean that transport is now off the hook?

In the short term, maybe, in the long term I believe the opposite will happen (THREAD)
In Germany as in the rest of Europe, we are reducing emissions in other sectors while not reducing them (and sometimes even increasing them) in the transport sector.

So each year transport accounts for a higher share of total emissions ⬇️
I think this means that the climate debate and the transport debate will progressively become *conflated*. Most of the climate debate will be about cars and planes.

Excuses such as "Let's pick some other low-hanging fruit!" or "Let's do nuclear instead!" won't cut it.
Read 5 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Feb 14
Fascinating from last week

#Dortmund Police tweets that elderly woman died after being ran over twice on pedestrian crossing

Gets asked if they intend to introduce more controls / cameras

The reply is something out of a textbook on car dependence. Or on how not to do PR Image
You can see the exchange for yourselves here
It gets worse: when asked whether they intend to implement measures to prevent such deaths from happening in the future, this is the police's reply. Note that the woman died *on a pedestrian crossing*
Image
Read 7 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
The astonishingly rapid rightward & xenophobic lurch of the German political debate over the last few weeks

A THREAD to which I am afraid I will keep adding

1) 20.10.23
2) 22.10.23

The leader of the Conservatives (first in the polls) Image
3) 05.11.23

A Liberal MP proposes to drastically reduce the rights to political participation, right of assembly / freedom of association for non-EU foreign residents
Read 5 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Sep 20, 2023
Every time car fuel prices go up - whether for taxes or wars - everyone seems to know exactly who suffers the most.

But which areas of Germany are most vulnerable to fuel price increases?

THREAD on my contribution to the Agora Verkehrswende & DLR report on transport poverty Image
(the report is available here) agora-verkehrswende.de/veroeffentlich…
We built on an established approach that sees vulnerability to fuel price increases as the product of:

1⃣ (high) exposure = high car use
2⃣ (high) sensitivity = low income
3⃣ (low) adaptive capacity = lack of alternatives to car use, car dependence
Read 14 tweets
Giulio Mattioli Profile picture
Jun 20, 2023
Incredibly ill-informed take on car dependence & inequality by "the leading progressive political and cultural magazine in the United Kingdom"

DEBUNKING THREAD
[disclaimer: the full article is behind paywall so I am commenting on what's in the thread. There's more than enough wrong stuff there already though]
Are low-income and ethnic minority groups more car dependent than others?

This argument would be misguided for most countries, but it's *particularly wrong for the UK*. Let's see why
Read 20 tweets

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