Islamic State released photos today of the June 27 ISCAP-ADF attack on Manyala village in Ituri that IS first claimed yesterday - a quick thread on what open source tools, Islamic State propaganda and local reporting reveals about this attack
Local reports described an attack on Manzobe village on Sunday June 27 in the afternoon, with the first Tweet mentioning this specific attack being posted the next morning on June 28th at 4:27am EST/10:27am CAT
8.5 hours later at ~1:00pm EST/7:00 CAT, Islamic State issued a claim through its "Nashir" Telegram channels for an attack on Manyala village (written in Arabic as مانيالا), stating that IS Central Africa Province fighters attacked a FARDC barracks and killed 2 soldiers
Today at approximately 3:30 EST/9:30 CAT, IS media published 8 photos of the attack. Most notably, a young fighter (approximately 13-14 years old) was pictured holding an Islamic State flag in front of two cell phone towers, which were readily identifiable in Manyala village
In addition, photos of ISCAP fighters outside Pharmacie la Reussite, less than 60m from the cell phone towers, enable confirmation of the time of day of the attack. Using shadow length and direction, we can estimate the time that the photos were taken at around 4pm
Lastly, using satellite imagery from NASA's FIRMS site, which posts daily detections of fires by several satellites, it's possible to confirm reports of 17 houses being burned, with a fire detected on Sunday June 27 at 7:12pm EST/Monday June 28 at 1:12am CAT in Manzobe village
Putting all this together, there are some key takeaways:
-IS propaganda properly identified that Manyala village was attacked before local outlets distinguished Manyala from nearby Manzobe village, which was also attacked during the same raid
-IS posted its initial claim 26 hours after attack began & 8.5 hours after first local reports appeared on Twitter
-Satellite imagery confirms locations claimed in IS propaganda, as well as local reports of arson
-IS-released photos confirmed that 2 FARDC soldiers were killed
This sequence of releases pretty clearly demonstrates how ISCAP-ADF is rapidly relaying battlefield updates with specific geographic information to IS's propaganda apparatus, alongside media confirming both location and details. IS Central isn't just reading news reports.
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Very bizarre situation. Seems Malanga brought along his American-born son Marcel, who played football and sold used cars in Salt Lake City and was at least visited his father’s gold mining venture in Mozambique. Marcel was arrested during the attack.
The two other Americans were Malanga’s partners in the gold mining venture in Manica province, Mozambique. Cole Patrick Ducey had been involved in a patent dispute over a cannabis herb grinder, before moving to Eswatini. He was arrested during the attack.
Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun was also purportedly involved in the cannabis business before getting involved in the gold trade. He appears in a video during the attack, but it is unclear if he was arrested.
Worrying reports that IS-Mozambique fighters have launched a large scale assault on Macomia town, the second assault on a district capital this year and the second since SADC and Rwanda intervened in 2021. No coincidence this coincides with SADC's withdrawal.
Reports suggest around 100 IS-Mozambique fighters are taking part in the assault, overrunning Xinavane town to the southwest, clashing in Macomia town's eastern neighborhoods and cutting off the roads from Awasse to the north and Pemba to the southeast.
This closely mirrors IS-Mozambique's May 2020 assault on Macomia, during which 90-120 fighters overran Mozambican security forces and controlled the town for three days. acleddata.com/2020/06/02/cab…
A thread on Friday night’s massacre at Mpondwe Lhubirha secondary school by the ADF, during which at least 42 people including 38 students were killed, 7 others injured and at least six kidnapped and taken across the border into DR Congo.
Officials stated that around 5 ADF fighters locked the doors of the boys’ dormitory before burning it, while killing female students with firearms and machetes. A guard and three local residents were also killed. Graphic pictures of the aftermath corroborate this account.
Mpondwe Lhubirha secondary school had received significant support from community members and organizations in Hillsboro, Oregon, a suburb of Portland. oregonlive.com/hillsboro/2015…
EAC is denying as fake a dramatic letter of resignation by now-replaced EAC Regional Force chief. Fake or not, tensions between Kinshasa and EACRF over its role and mandate are getting quite serious, even as thousands of EAC troops have deployed to Congo
The EAC's Regional Force was designed to deploy thousands of troops into Congo to actively assist the Congolese state in dismantling rebel groups that refused to join the demobilization process. The language was pretty clear: “contain, defeat and eradicate negative forces”
Early communiques quite explicitly stated that EACRF would deploy in support of and under the leadership of FARDC, and M23 was expelled from Nairobi following attacks on FARDC positions in late March. M23 then seized Bunagana and other important positions in a June offensive.
Some interesting - and troubling - photos published by Islamic State of clashes between its "Mozambique Province" - locally called Al Shabaab - and Mozambican & SADC troops in Cabo Delgado since the beginning of "Operation Vulcão IV" on January 1 🧵
On January 8, Mozambican army and SADC troops were ambushed near Litandacua in Macomia district, during which IS claimed that a "reconnaissance plane" was captured. In today's Al Naba newsletter, IS published a photo of a fairly intact DJI Mavic 2 zitamar.com/insurgents-and…
Much more troubling were reports on January 10 that Al Shabaab fighters overran a Mozambican army base in Xitachi on N380, the main road from southern Cabo Delgado north towards Mueda & Nangade. IS published photos yesterday, showing an overran/burned base and three dead soldiers
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the horrendous atrocities that have come with it really ought to discredit anyone fantasizing about the collapse of the liberal world order and it’s replacement with some new “multipolar” or “post-liberal” successor.
There are plenty of precedents, Syria being the most blatant, but it’s no small thing that Putin explicitly framed this war as the death blow to the post-1945 order. That order and what it promised never existed as advertised, but as a set of normative expectations it mattered.
The idea that wars of naked conquest, the violent extermination of national identities or violations of basic human rights were bad…mattered. These still occurred, if course, but there existed a consensus - even if often nominal - that they were unacceptable.