Folks seem to think that Charles Murray's arguments are just about the black-white IQ gap being genetic. They're not. The gap in IQ between receptionists and doctors is much bigger than the black-white IQ gap. His arguments imply that's genetic too!
His views imply that if you choose 1000 doctors and 1000 receptionists at random and analyze them genetically, you will find systematic genetic differences between both groups and these genetic differences hugely pre-determined their cognitive abilities and life outcomes.
Murray's arguments don't just imply that blacks are genetically limited (on average). They imply that if you or someone you know didn't do well on the SAT for instance then more likely than not, it's largely because of genetically pre-determined cognitive limitations.
The racial spin makes it sound like these genes-and-IQ arguments are just about black people specifically. These arguments are actually about the nature of *all* people.
Murray's arguments imply that whether you're black or white, genes are a huge factor in determining where you end up in American society. He also claims the US is largely meritocratic. This implies that genes determine not just where you end up but where you actually belong.

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More from @kareem_carr

27 Jun
In my opinion, this plot represents one of the MOST important facts about American society today. The white population has a huge extra hump of older people that other demographics don't have.
I think that hump could explain why there's so much fear around how America is "changing". The younger generation is more mixed so the normal intergenerational conflict is perhaps being magnified by the fact that the younger generation doesn't "look like" the older generation.
I suspect age contributes to racial differences in politics in two ways. The first is obvious. Young people have different wants and needs from older people. So it matters that whites are proportionally so much older.
Read 9 tweets
25 Jun
⚠️ Statistician here. It’s unclear how much “signal” there is here. He at least needs to ask his unvaccinated friends if they’ve had any unexplained illness over a designated time period to establish a background rate of illness. Then compare the vaccinated in that period.
It’s still not good enough because his friends are non-random, likely to share his biases, and he probably doesn’t have enough of them to get anything statistically significant. 🤣
Sounds like people are also seeking him out to give him information. That’s a source of selection bias. There are likely even more biases going on like tending to ask more probing questions of the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
Read 4 tweets
20 Jun
"The cognitive demands of those jobs mean a lot more white people qualify than black people."

This video is full of misuses of statistics! A thread. 🧵👇

1. First of all. CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION. As a statistician, I'm contractually obligated to let you know that these patterns that he's talking about are all correlations. They are not proof of causation.
2. An IQ difference of 12 points is NOT "a lot". The distribution of IQ and the distribution of human height are very similar. They follow what's called a bell curve. So, we can get an intuition for IQs by thinking about heights which we are typically more familiar with.
Read 24 tweets
19 Jun
IQ often gets used to promote racism on the internet but it's also highly mathematical so people don't really understand it.

In this thread, I will explain:

1. How the math of IQ works at a high level (don't worry no formulas!)

2. Why IQ is partly socially construct... 🧵👇
An IQ test is basically a list of questions that a psychometrician (kind of a cross between a psychologist and a statistician) thinks might measure intelligence. If you give such a test to a lot of people, you will get a range of scores.
The first thing you might notice is that the distribution of scores isn't a nice shape. So psychometricians adjust the scores so that a certain number fall within certain percentiles so you get a nice bell curve like this:
Read 16 tweets
18 Jun
As a black statistician, I felt the need to look into this plot going around Twitter. As far as I can tell, it's being used to push the narrative that black people's poor relationship choices are causing bad outcomes for black children.
At first, I thought the analysis looked sloppy based on just the plot but I decided to dig in and realized the methodology was much better than I thought and it actually addressed my major concerns BUT the narratives on Twitter don't seem to reflect what's in the actual report.
1. CAUSATION. The actual analysis WARNS against making CAUSAL claims and admits that a "number of factors not measured...may confound the associations between family structure and child outcomes".
Read 15 tweets
14 Jun
I have mixed feelings about the criticism that the public health community didn't do a good job communicating with the public. On the one hand, it's clear that things could have gone better. On the other hand, the criticism strikes me as extremely unfair.
First of all. Who was the public listening to? They were listening to random people on the internet with no expertise at all. They were listening to science communicators with no connection to government or authority over anything.
They were listening to professors in universities. Physicists and aerosol chemists and virologists. They were even listening to silicon valley venture capitalists.
Read 9 tweets

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