Thread by @kjmcinnis1

A few Wednesday morning thoughts on creative methodologies - in particular the use of fiction - in national security policy analysis. 1/

There's cool stuff out there on useful fiction and #ficint and the key point is that such tools can help you contemplate the current and emerging world in a methodologically and logically unbound way. 2/

This is enormously useful at the beginning of analyzing a problem, as it helps one identify and utilize a variety of different lenses through which a problem can be viewed. 3/

I have found fiction is also enormously useful for *theme identification,* particularly when it comes to problems that have human dimensions to them (aka, war and statecraft). In crafting a story, letting the characters do their thing and letting the back of your brain go... 4/

One often finds that the elements that are brought forward through story are issues or problems (and lenses through which to view them) that deserve further scrutiny - which then lend themselves to more "traditional" analytic methods. 5/

For ex, the story I wrote for this Chaillot Paper allowed me to think about the dynamics of a possible next world war in a way I hadn't before considered. What if such a war becomes a free for all? What does war termination look like in that context? 6/ iss.europa.eu/content/confli…

This to me is very different from scenario crafting, which test out a few different factors in a discrete, constructed world in order to understand a specific question. Fiction and scenario building are often conflated in the natsec world, but they are different animals. 7/

Similarly, criticisms are sometimes leveled at authors bc their work isn't "accurate enough" to be taken seriously by natsec folks or that their world building is "wrong." The point of this tool isn't accuracy per se, it's theme identification which is much bigger & broader 8/

So it seems to me that fiction can be quite useful at the front end of an analytic process in order to (a) creatively play with different ways to frame problems and (b) identify themes to be taken forward using "traditional" analytic tools. 9/

Another ex: THE HEART OF WAR, which allowed me to creatively contemplate DOD personnel management, strategic competition, the difficulty of sticking to stated strategic priorities and so on. All themes I have subsequently explored in "hard" analytic products 10/

amazon.com/Heart-War-Misa… 11/

So with all that in mind, @august_cole @peterwsinger @WarintheFuture @FlorenceGaub @WMDgirl I'd love your thoughts on how you guys think fiction can best be applied as a methodological tool when you have the chance! FIN.