this is a wild dynamic that shows up in so many of these testing studies re: housing discrimination. In these cases, "testers" pretend to be looking for a home or a house to rent, and the property managers are often *nice* to the tester they have no intention of ever renting to.
a few years back, Urban Institute did a study like this, where they sent "testers" to inquire about homes to rent/buy. They sent white testers and testers of color, w the same financial credentials. They did this thousands of times across more than two dozen cities in the US.
Black, Latine, and Asian American prospective renters/buyers were shown far fewer homes than the white folks who inquired. The brown testers were more likely to be told units weren't available; the white folks were also offered lower rent. But the interactions were *nice.*
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and this drop is true of nearly every big city in the US – homicide and violent crime rates have PLUMMETED over the last two decades, and at or near record lows in some places. but if you watch local news (or read Nextdoor) you might think it's Mad Max out here.
as @loisbeckett said, when the baseline is that low, any small increase in violent crime can look like a spike year over year.
it's a very politically useful innumeracy — hard to make an argument for rethinking budget priorities around, say, policing if crime is "skyrocketing."
on our neighborhood Nextdoor, a police captain posts these context-less crime incident reports and commenters are always like "what is happening to/in our neighborhood?"
it's a good q, but not for the reasons they ask. who are the most likely victims?(it's not ppl on nextdoor.)
Was listening to Sam Anderson and Zach Lowe talk about how we’ve never seen KD — easily one of the most talented players ever — have to really enter the Avatar State in his career. He’s never had to go full Harden, touch-the-ball every possession.
We might be about to, though.
My next door neighbor is a DC dude who played professionally overseas. We were having this long convo the other day about how hard it is to place KD (who he coached against in AAU).
He might be the most complete player ever, but no one considers him the greatest. It’s weird.
He’s never had to be, like, full tilt every night except for one stretch when Russ was out.
we’ve seen Bron have to do it and Steph have to do it and Harden have to do it. It’s not ideal — it usually means something has gone wrong — but KD hasnt.
Steph is obviously a tremendously skilled shooter, but a good deal of what makes him deadly is his reaction time and spatial awareness. It’s not run-jump athleticism, but it’s also not “teachable” either.
Also, like... we associate good shot-blocking with vertical leaps but most of the best are constantly timing their jumps and watching angles. Tim Duncan is a great example.
It’s a lot more skill-based than we appreciate.
(Timmy — especially young Timmy — was more athletic than he gets credit for. But there’s a reason that he was an all-time great shotblocker and Amare, who was a complete athletic freak, was just a passable defender.)