Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Jul 1, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
🚨🚨SCOOPLET!🚨🚨 China is expanding its mysterious, giant airfield in the middle of the desert. New (28 June) imagery from @Maxar shows a dozen or so buildings under construction at the site.

This may be China's Area 51 under construction.

Full Story: npr.org/2021/07/01/101…
This airstrip is huge at 5km (3 mi). It's weird in several ways:

✅Its in the middle of nowhere, on the edge of an abandoned nuclear test site at Lop Nur.

✅It doesn't have normal aistrip stuff, like taxiways, aprons or control towers.

✅Did I mention it's GINORMOUSLY LONG?
Last year its believed that China landed a classified "space plane" at the site. That's in part because the runway JUST HAPPENED to align perfectly with the space plane's orbital path.

Imagery from @planet even captured what MIGHT have been the space plane on the runway. Or, you know, maybe just a fuzzy dot...

npr.org/2020/09/09/911…
But other than that, the airstrip has been quiet. There's not a lot going on. Also not much in the way of accommodation. These modular buildings at the south end of the runway are only place to stay for at least 40km in any direction....
Until now! Between August 2020 and now, a whole bunch of new structures have popped up near the central hanger in the middle of the site (Left image: Feb 2020, Right image June 28 2021).

It's not entirely clear what these structures are for, but they're fairly big.
It's puzzling, says @planet4589 because if this facility really is just used for retrieving the space plane every now and again, you wouldn't need these kind of permanent structures:

"This seems to be something that is more than just, 'We're coming here for the weekend.'"
Also, this site, in a desert 100s of miles from any decent sized city, isn't really somewhere you'd want to hang out. Though I would note it's probably a DRY heat.
So what's going on? Well, says @nktpnd, a giant runway in the middle of the desert can be used for other things... testing secret aircraft and drones, for example.

"This does look like it could be a Chinese Area 51," he says.
Ok, but seriously. There's a lot we still don't know about the site, and a lot we may never know. But this does seem significant.

"I think we're observing a pretty important facility for China's military space activities, that appears to be growing," Panda says.
For a little more background on what makes the Lop Nur airfield so unusual, check out this thread from the space plane landing in 2020:

And as a final coda for the OSINT geeks, I'd just note that the beginnings of this construction was actually visible when the space plane landed in September of 2020! It just wasn't obvious yet what was happening at the site.

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More from @gbrumfiel

Jun 26
Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, but many experts think that its been able to hold on to some of its enriched uranium.

Here's why that 400+ kilograms of highly enriched uranium is REALLY important….

A brief 🧵 (WITH POORLY MADE GRAPHICS!) Image
I’d actually been meaning to do this thread anyway, because there’s been a lot of confusion about uranium enrichment, and I thought it’d be helpful. But in the current context of this ceasefire it seems especially important.

So let’s start with how enrichment works....
Every uranium atom has the same number of protons at the center, but different atoms can have different numbers of neutrons. The number of neutrons determines a number of properties, including for uranium, how easily it splits apart.

Natural uranium is mostly uranium-238.... Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 25
OK, after reporting this out, I've got a few final thoughts on the B-2 strike on Fordo and whether the MOPs got through.

I think there's some really interesting details that have emerged and clarified my thinking... 🧵

npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-…
First, a question I must ask myself (and that you should ask too) is have I become "man on the Internet" who thinks he knows more than the Pentagon....

I am somewhat fearful that doing my own math makes it look like I do, but I assure you I do not.

The Pentagon knows way more than I do. About the rock, about the bomb, about the right equations and the bunkers.
And from everything we can see, I think seems that they executed this strike flawlessly. The hits are clustered. The strike points chosen carefully. (@Maxar /NPR) Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 18
If a U. S. 'bunker buster' hits a nuclear site, what might get released into the air?

Very good fact-checking here by my colleague Nell Greenfieldboyce. Iranian enrichment facilities will not "blow up" in a mushroom cloud when they're struck...

npr.org/2025/06/18/nx-…
Because the enriched U-235 is stored as a gas, its at far too low a density to start a criticality event. A bomb will simply disperse it around the local environment.
Also, unlike nuclear reactors, there are no lighter radioactive isotopes that can be dissolved in water vapor and transported over long distances (think Cs-137 and I-131).

Instead, the main contaminate will be Uranium Hexaflouride (UF6) a heavy gas that is quite toxic...
Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
ANALYSIS: There is a LOT of stuff in the media right now about the Massive Ordinance Penetrator--The American bunker buster that might get used on Iran's deeply buried site at Fordow.

Can it hit Fordow? I'm not sure.

Here's why (WITH MATH). 🧵
OK, so before we even start, a disclaimer-- I'm a journalist, not a weapons expert. But I have reported on a similar topic a long time ago.

More on that later, but first, let's talk about the MOP.

It's a 30,000 lb (13, 600 kg) bomb built by Boeing and designed to hit bunkers. Image
A lot of other outlets (particularly @thewarzonewire) have done great reporting on the MOP.

They surfaced this early DOD graphic showing that it could penetrate 60' (18 m). Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 30, 2024
BREAKING: A tiny town in North Carolina that’s just been devastated by hurricane Helene could end up severely disrupting the global supply chain for microchips and solar panels.

(By myself, @camilareads and Scott Neuman)

Short 🧵

npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-…
The community in question is called Spruce Pine. It is America's sole source of high-purity quartz, and one of the only places that can supply high purity quartz to the world.

Or it was, until Hurricane Helene dropped a whopping 24.12 " of rain on it. Image
I spoke to Spencer Bost head of Downtown Spruce Pine. He says local businesses are destroyed.

There's now power, no water, or cell service.

"We were there for three days before we got enough chainsaws together to cut a path out of our neighborhood." (photo: S. Bost) Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 9, 2024
The @iaeaorg is closely monitoring fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near Russia's Kursk NPP.

This has the potential to develop into a serious nuclear emergency.

Here's some early thoughts in a short 🧵
First, let's talk about the Kursk nuclear plant (KNPP hereafter).

The plant is located inside of Russia, about 100 km from the border with Ukraine. It consists of four units, two of which are currently operational (Units 3 and 4).
Image
Image
The operating reactors at Kursk are OLD. They began operation in the 1980s, and have had multiple license extensions.

They are graphite-moderated light water reactors. Graphite moderated reactors are no longer built anywhere in the world as far as I know, and for good reason... Image
Read 12 tweets

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