braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…

PODCAST: "Hexapodia" Is þe Key Insight XX: Five-Item Grab-Bag: Vaccination & Votes; NIMBYism & California Growth, Aversion to UI, Google’s Quality, & Wilhelmine Germany & Contemporary China... 1/

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong's 30:00 < [Length of Weekly
... Podcast] < 60:00

Zach Carter, who was supposed to be our guest this week, has a cold. So we have a grab-bag: vaccination & votes, NIMBYism & California growth, aversion to continuing UI, Google’s quality as a search engine, & Wilhelmine Germany & Contemporary China... 2/
...Key Insights: 1. Red states will see a lot of COVID-hurt this summer fall and winter for… reasons we still find incomprehensible… 2. NIMBYism has not killed California growth because monkey-smarts are becoming, relatively, less important as a factor of production… 3/
...The right response to those who advocate cutting off UI now is Ezra Klein’s: “My God! Let people have a minute!”... 4. Google can be a useful search engine, if only for your own backlist, if you can remember eight unusual words you used to write down your thoughts the... 4/
...e last time you thought seriously about something... 5. There are too many parallels between Wilhelmine Germany back before World War I and China today for us to sleep easy; the best we can hope is that Marx was right when he said that, when history repeats, the... 5/
...first time it is tragedy, the second time farce… 6.
Hexapodia!

References:

Geoffrey Fowler: Google’s Search Results Have Gotten Worse: <washingtonpost.com/technology/202…>... 6/
...Michael Hiltzik: Is California Really Anti-Business? Don’t Tell Our Economy <latimes.com/business/story…>... 7/
...Ezra Klein & Betsey Stevenson: Transcript <nytimes.com/2021/06/18/pod…>... 8/
...Seth Masket: Correlation of Biden vote share & adult Covid vaccination rate [state-by-state] is now at .847. (CDC data)… <>... 9/
...Chad Stone: May Job Growth Strong But Unemployment Insurance Reform Still Needed <cbpp.org/blog/may-job-g…>... 10/
...
Matthew Winkler: California Defies Doom With No. 1 U.S. Economy <bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…> 11/END

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More from @delong

2 Jul
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember: Is there any reason not to take this as a reasonable, non-stupid, rational, calm take on the issue?

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...trace SARS definitively to bats.... Even if you’re doing the most sophisticated gain-of-function research you could possibly be doing, you have to start with a virus that’s at least close.... As far as anybody knows, the closest strain the WIV had is a bat virus called... 2/
...RaTG13 that’s 96 percent similar to Covid–19, but the gulf between 96 percent and >99 percent is vast.... If RaTG13 were used as a backbone for Covid–19, Rasmussen told me, you’d expect to see big chunks of exact similarity with coherent chunks of new information added... 3/
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1 Jul
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: All I am asking is þt people remember þt þeir model & forecast are a model & a forecast—þt neiþer are “reality”. In þe public discussion, þe right line is: The risks are much greater on þe downside þan þe upside. FULL STOP. More opens... 1/
...þe door for bad actors to confuse people <>

&:

Cecilia Rouse & al.: Distinguishing Between Signal & Noise in Recent Jobs Data: ‘The onset of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in historically large job losses, and its retreat this spring has... 2/
...allowed millions of Americans to return to work. On average since January 2021, the U.S. has added about 500,000 new jobs per month. However, job growth has also been noticeably volatile month-to-month since January. This volatility in job growth during the pandemic... 3/
Read 9 tweets
30 Jun
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Cecilia Rouse & al.: Distinguishing Between Signal & Noise in Recent Jobs Data: ‘The onset of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in historically large job losses, and its retreat this spring has allowed millions of Americans to return to work. On... 1/
...average since January 2021, the U.S. has added about 500,000 new jobs per month. However, job growth has also been noticeably volatile month-to-month since January. This volatility in job growth during the pandemic reflects both real volatility—economic reverberations... 2/
...of the pandemic shock—as well as heightened measurement error due to the challenge of collecting statistical data amidst a pandemic. These considerations warn against placing too much weight on any single data point in assessing the current state of the economy, even... 3/
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
prosyn.org/RVAv38R?referr…

There is a disturbingly strong historical analogy to the Republican Party’s transformation into a cult of personality: the Communist Party of China under Mao Zedong. At the CPC’s Lu Mountain Plenary Meeting in 1958, Marshall Peng Dehuai pointed out... 1/
...that Mao’s judgment was flawed, and that he could no longer be trusted as primus inter pares. The only question was whether the other party grandees could move ahead without Mao’s charismatic link to the party’s gullible base... 2/
...But Mao struck first. While party officials like Peng Zhen, Luo Ruiqing, Lu Dingyi, Yang Shangkun, and Deng Xiaoping were purged, Peng and Liu Shaoqi both turned up dead, and the rest of the grandees got with the program. That program was the total chaos of the Cultural... 3/
Read 8 tweets
29 Jun
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

Briefly Noted: For 2021-06-28 Mo
Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember: First: A Platonic Dialogue: Polemarkhos: Look at this! Is this still true?... 1/
...Glaukon: Yes it is…

Nikeratos: The grifters and the grifted—both are, to me, astonishing to watch.

Thrasymakhos: How so?

Nikeratos: On the one hand, the grifters say: Trump deserves 100% credit for warp speed, and Biden and the press are showing how despicable they... 2/ Image
...are by not praising him every day. And the grifted buy it.

Polemarkhos: And on the other hand, actually getting a vaccine and so not being willing to fight the virus with your bare hands alone—that demonstrates that you are some kind of a… near-eunuch… what is the... 3/
Read 14 tweets
29 Jun
<braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from…>

HOISTED FROM Þe ARCHIVES: Right from þe Start?: What Milton Friedman Can Teach Progressives (2007)
Trying to be sympathetic-but-fair to Friedman & to Ebenstein...

Trying to be sympathetic-but-fair to Friedman & to Ebenstein... But what is so... 1/
...special about the banking industry that leads Milton Friedman to conclude that the government **must** respond to a fall in demand for its services (for that is what going to the bank to pull out your deposit in gold constitutes) by providing it with a huge, immediate... 2/
...subsidy (for that is what buying up banks’ Treasury bonds for cash at their normal valuation constitutes)? And, if Friedman’s detailed study of the banking sector led him to make an exception from laissez-faire for this industry, who is he to say that a similarly... 3/
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