Thread by @PeterMoskos

Uh, say what? I'll spell it out if I have to. But I really hope I don't have to.

https://twitter.com/BNeidhardt/status/1404884541924327427

It's about the % increase. NYC is worse than every city but Baltimore. I might try and spell it out. It's exactly what twitter isn't good for.

This statement, in the tweet: "NYC has fought back gun violence better than other major cities." It's exactly what the chart doesn't show. They just showed a chart to make it look official. That's the crazy thing. He could have just lied without showing contradictory data.

I also suspect the numbers--the data--are probably wrong. Because why wouldn't they be with this acumen level of data analysis. But should I waste my own time to figure it out? I'm not going to.

Other things that set off my BS alarm bells (and I could be ring. They're just alarms after all. Might be a false alarm): 1) 3 digits with a useless decimal place; give the pretension of ultra super preciseness.

2) Year-to-date shooting data? It *can* be done, but I don't have it. Boston? Baltimore? Philadelphia? I guess maybe from open data, but I'm not certain you can get it. Maybe it's all open city data and the data is accurate. IDK. Murder data? Yes. Shooting data is tough.

Let me spot check Chicago and NYC, because @w_h_thompson keeps track of Chicago. And NYC Compstat give the stats for NYC.

The data he provides, which shows a 65% increase in shootings in NYC... it isn't even accurate. And the error, strangely, is in his favor. 2020=7.2 & 2021=9.8. It's a 36% increase.

I can't even both with this. For what it's worth, I get a 2021 rate in Chicago of 72, which is far off from his chart. I have no idea where their data is from. Nor do I care.

Anyway, leaving aside data accuracy(!), using his data looking at (probably false) year-to-year change, this is what you get. And NYC doesn't come out looking good. But it's all BS. (and it's not the default colors of excel that are bad @Crimealytics it's everything else!)

Does NYC have a lower rate of gun violence than other cities? Yes. but if you put out a chart showing year-to-date 2021 vs 2020, then that's your point. Otherwise you could just use rate. And yes, NYC has fewer shootings than Baltimore. Or compared to 1990. But recently? No.

*72 is for the half year. So it would be an annual rate of 144, which still didn't jibe.

I think all that data presented is wrong. Period. At least for NYC and Baltimore. I'm guessing none of it is accurate.