Thread by @swardley

This is so fascinating but for all the wrong reasons ->

https://twitter.com/mitsmr/status/1410826068731301888

When you look at next generation behaviour then being influenced by something other than the executive circle is an encouraging sign, however the structure of the next generation is firmly towards remote work ...

i.e. the office is the last bastion of a centralised mentality and our communication mechanisms have changed to the point that such a mentality is no longer fit for the modern age ... still ...

... it won't go quietly. It'll take a long time. There are issues of power and status wrapped up in the ideas of the office / HQ which will create inertia to change and there are niches where it will be required. The isolation economy (caused by COVID) accelerated it ...

... but there are many that will want to recreate the past. From an organisational perspective it is better to adapt but most organisations don't run on what is best for the organisation, they run on what is best for the executive.

X : We did a survey and ...
Me : Ah, the problem of surveys across multiple distinct populations and the use of average. To put it bluntly, the next generation are remote first, the traditional are office first and the wider group are more mixed across all ...

... now this question was a separation question (i.e. one used to divide the populations) but the populations are statistically distinct across 20 other characteristics (the table far above, 2021 next generation behaviours).
X : And?
Me : Well ...

... we know the next generation represent the future state that we are evolving to but if you survey and just ask the question without dividing the populations then it's easy to come to a conclusion ...

... that the future is hybrid or (with sampling bias) a conclusion that the future is office based. Averages across distinct populations are never very helpful. Good luck with that.

X : So, what would you recommend?
Me : Adapt. The world is different. Stop trying to force things back into the past. The office is the past.
X : Will that happen?
Me : Did I mention inertia from power and status? Expect a lot of execs to try and push staff back into the office.

X : Are you saing execs are daft?
Me : No. I'm saying that power, status and self interest are powerful forces. I think you're assuming that execs run organisations for the benefit of the organisation. I would question that.

X : Who is good at this?
Me : Knowing which way the winds of change are blowing? Microsoft swooped on GitHub ($7.5bn ) and Bethesda, attempted to buy Slack (bought by Salesforce for $27bn ), Discord ($10bn ) and Amazon has acquired Wickr ... Microsoft and Amazon ...

... both understand the importance of communication mechanism in future structure. However, there are many interesting companies for different reasons. One of my favourite is Haier. As CEO Zhang Ruimin said "It’s now time for every employee to be his or her own boss”.

X : Some of these changes were pre covid.
Me : All of the changes were. The isolation economy is just the accelerator to what was already happening. It means people have had less time to prepare for the changes. A slower pace has benefits.
X : Such as?
Me : Retirement.

X : How long will this take?
Me : Depends upon competition in your industry. High barriers to entry, poor competitors (i.e. no guiding principles, procedure based, hierarchical, no situational awareness etc) combined with inertia (power, status) then many many decades.

X : I thought you said the isolation economy was an accelerator?
Me : It is.
X : But you're still talking decades?
Me : For some. Fundamental shifts in management thinking normally take 30-50 years. Retirement is such an important part of this ...

... the changes are going to create some real internal conflict.
X : Recommendations?
Me : Depends upon context. General rule?
X : Yes
Me : Find women in your organisation who've been building guilds (i.e. World of Warcraft / EVE online) and fast track them to exec positions.

X : Why women?
Me : You wanted a general rule. Representation and diversity are far more important than many imagine in this new world. You need to quickly move towards a more inclusive environment and that means overturning past privilege. This is an opportunity. Take it.

X : So, don't return to the office?
Me : It's the wrong move.

X : What are the new practices in this new world?
Me : Oh, you'll hate this. They are emerging. It'll require some experimentation or alternatively you can wait until they are well established and all advantage has long gone.

X : So, what do we do?
Me : Find the areas that are most advanced and established in those practices and bring them to your space. I didn't pick WoW / EVE online at random. That is where the practices are most established. Look at groups on discord etc.

To be blunt, your future leaders aren't to be found studying MBAs ... they are currently creating highly motivated and remote collectives to battle elves or aliens or build civilisations. These are the best executive training grounds that I know of.