When you look at next generation behaviour then being influenced by something other than the executive circle is an encouraging sign, however the structure of the next generation is firmly towards remote work ...
i.e. the office is the last bastion of a centralised mentality and our communication mechanisms have changed to the point that such a mentality is no longer fit for the modern age ... still ...
... it won't go quietly. It'll take a long time. There are issues of power and status wrapped up in the ideas of the office / HQ which will create inertia to change and there are niches where it will be required. The isolation economy (caused by COVID) accelerated it ...
... but there are many that will want to recreate the past. From an organisational perspective it is better to adapt but most organisations don't run on what is best for the organisation, they run on what is best for the executive.
X : We did a survey and ...
Me : Ah, the problem of surveys across multiple distinct populations and the use of average. To put it bluntly, the next generation are remote first, the traditional are office first and the wider group are more mixed across all ...
... now this question was a separation question (i.e. one used to divide the populations) but the populations are statistically distinct across 20 other characteristics (the table far above, 2021 next generation behaviours).
X : And?
Me : Well ...
... we know the next generation represent the future state that we are evolving to but if you survey and just ask the question without dividing the populations then it's easy to come to a conclusion ...
... that the future is hybrid or (with sampling bias) a conclusion that the future is office based. Averages across distinct populations are never very helpful. Good luck with that.
X : So, what would you recommend?
Me : Adapt. The world is different. Stop trying to force things back into the past. The office is the past.
X : Will that happen?
Me : Did I mention inertia from power and status? Expect a lot of execs to try and push staff back into the office.
X : Are you saing execs are daft?
Me : No. I'm saying that power, status and self interest are powerful forces. I think you're assuming that execs run organisations for the benefit of the organisation. I would question that.
X : Who is good at this?
Me : Knowing which way the winds of change are blowing? Microsoft swooped on GitHub ($7.5bn ) and Bethesda, attempted to buy Slack (bought by Salesforce for $27bn ), Discord ($10bn ) and Amazon has acquired Wickr ... Microsoft and Amazon ...
... both understand the importance of communication mechanism in future structure. However, there are many interesting companies for different reasons. One of my favourite is Haier. As CEO Zhang Ruimin said "It’s now time for every employee to be his or her own boss”.
X : Some of these changes were pre covid.
Me : All of the changes were. The isolation economy is just the accelerator to what was already happening. It means people have had less time to prepare for the changes. A slower pace has benefits.
X : Such as?
Me : Retirement.
X : How long will this take?
Me : Depends upon competition in your industry. High barriers to entry, poor competitors (i.e. no guiding principles, procedure based, hierarchical, no situational awareness etc) combined with inertia (power, status) then many many decades.
X : I thought you said the isolation economy was an accelerator?
Me : It is.
X : But you're still talking decades?
Me : For some. Fundamental shifts in management thinking normally take 30-50 years. Retirement is such an important part of this ...
... the changes are going to create some real internal conflict.
X : Recommendations?
Me : Depends upon context. General rule?
X : Yes
Me : Find women in your organisation who've been building guilds (i.e. World of Warcraft / EVE online) and fast track them to exec positions.
X : Why women?
Me : You wanted a general rule. Representation and diversity are far more important than many imagine in this new world. You need to quickly move towards a more inclusive environment and that means overturning past privilege. This is an opportunity. Take it.
X : So, don't return to the office?
Me : It's the wrong move.
X : What are the new practices in this new world?
Me : Oh, you'll hate this. They are emerging. It'll require some experimentation or alternatively you can wait until they are well established and all advantage has long gone.
X : So, what do we do?
Me : Find the areas that are most advanced and established in those practices and bring them to your space. I didn't pick WoW / EVE online at random. That is where the practices are most established. Look at groups on discord etc.
To be blunt, your future leaders aren't to be found studying MBAs ... they are currently creating highly motivated and remote collectives to battle elves or aliens or build civilisations. These are the best executive training grounds that I know of.
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X : What is the deep state?
Me : Depends. You have various conspiracy theory forms and then there's the general term used to describe networks of power operating outside traditional democratic processes. This includes the influence of corporate interests, financial bodies, think tanks, wealthy individuals, lobbysts firms and institutions on government policy. Why?
X : Is Trump going to war on the deep state?
Me : I suspect you'll find that Trump brings his own corporate interests, financial bodies, think tanks, wealthy individuals, lobbysts firms and institutions that will have influence on government policy outside of the normal democratic process.
X : What does that mean?
Me : It means the deep state doesn't usually go away, it just changes i.e. a different group have influence. Unless Trump is planning on a radical program of transparency. Now, that would be interesting. Never seen Trump as a transparency champion.
X : Did you research healthcare investment?
Me : Back in 2023. A group of clinicians mapped multiple perspective of healthcare - including AI, clinical decision making, healthcare value chain - then we used those to determine where to invest from a societal and market benefit.
Me : ... from the table, if your focus is on society then your priority for investment should be measurement of health outcomes (against Patient Reported Outcome Measures) and sharing of medical data. If you're after market growth then try personalised medicine and preventative healthcare.
X : How do you produce those tables?
Me : Pick a field ... like healthcare. Ideally get 40-60 people together with experience i.e. clinicians. Ask them to write down post-it notes of what matters ...
X : What is the most essential skill for AI in the future?
Me : Critical thinking in humans. Alas, we don't usually teach this at school because we're too focused on producing useful economic units.
X : Useful economic units?
Me : Turning humans into automatons for the workplace.
X : Do you have evidence for this.
Me : I took a group of educational consultants, academics and teachers in 2023 and mapped out education from multiple perspectives ... purpose, micro-credentials, asynchronous & synchronous learning, learning models, social learning ...
... we then used the maps to identify where to invest for both societal and market benefit. We then aggregated the results, into the table attached.
If your focus in on societal benefit, then invest in lifelong learning and critical thinking. If your focus is on making money then invest in educational AI and digital access.
It amazes me that the most important metrics (lines of code, story points, cycle time, devex satisfaction) in development are the two that are never discussed, let alone measured ... mean time to answer (mttA) and mean time to question (mttQ).
Whenever we start with building a system or managing a legacy environment, we need to ask questions and get answers. Those are skills which can be hindered or supported by the toolset around you ...
... in the very worst cases, engineers are forced into reading code to try and understand a system. Upto 50% of development time can be spent on reading code ... a process we never question or optimise. That is madness.
X : Thoughts on a return to office policy?
Me : It happens for two basic reasons:- 1) loss of status symbols (top floor office etc). Many execs need these to say "I'm the boss" 2) headcount reduction (i.e. people will leave) due to a weakness in the finances.
Why?
X : What about productivity and innovation?
Me : Those are "reasons" given but they're all bogus and don't stand up to scrutiny. However, there is a third.
X : Colloboration?
Me : Stranded assets - offices etc. No exec likes looking at an empty building they spent £300M on.
X : Basically - status symbols, weaknesses of finances and political capital?
Me : Sounds about right.
X : Did you see Amazon has a return to office policy -
Me : Oh. That's concerning.geekwire.com/2024/survey-by…
X : Our strategy doesn't align with our business.
Me : How do you mean?
X : We create these strategy documents but they never really get implemented as the day to day business takes over.
Me : That's common. Can I ask a question?
X : Sure
Me : ...
Me : Do you map?
X : I've heard of your technique but we don't use it.
Me : Ok, so your business operations is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : And your strategy is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : What made you think they would align?
X : They are supposed to align and we wrote our strategy on our understanding of the business.
Me : Your wrote your strategy based upon stories. There's no means to create a consensus of your landscape, to challenge what your are doing. There is no mechanism for alignment.