Some observations from the UK:
• Vaccines provide ~95% protection against death from Delta
• Deaths in vaccinees are in older people with preexisting conditions
Numbers as we expect for AZ and RNA vax, as is breakthrough severity risk factors
msn.com/en-us/health/m…
• Vaccines provide ~95% protection against death from Delta
• Deaths in vaccinees are in older people with preexisting conditions
Numbers as we expect for AZ and RNA vax, as is breakthrough severity risk factors
msn.com/en-us/health/m…
J&J is still expected to be a bit less efficacious. So rather than conclude everything's ok and that's the best we can do, I take it as certain people can use a booster if they are high-risk
We can do a back-of-envelope calculation for the expected impact. We’re predicted to get 30M cases, 1M hospitalizations, and 100k deaths in the next wave among unvaxxed. If our vaccines are 90/95/95% effective on these measures, and half of people are vaccinated, then...
...assuming similar exposures, there will be 3M cases, 50k hospitalizations, and 5k deaths in vaccinated people. If 6% of these are J&J, they would account for 150k cases, 3k hospitalizations, and 300 deaths if the vaccine is similarly effective.
If J&J is only 70/80/95 effective on cases/hospitalizations/deaths, then breakthroughs would be more like 450k cases, 12k hospitalizations, and 300 deaths. CDC may see those #'s as too small to alter guidelines, but they're suitable #'s for individual pt-doctor consults.
The goal of boosters for J&J would be to get back to 90/95/95% efficacy on cases/hospitalizations/deaths, saving 300k cases and 9k hospitalizations. If we extended boosters for everyone at risk, we could address the 3M cases, 50k hospitalizations, and 5k deaths in all vaxxed.
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