1/ Polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks (Kahan et al.)
"Those with the most science literacy & reasoning capacity were not most concerned about climate change; they were the group w/ the most polarization."
"We instructed subjects to rate the seriousness of climate change risk."
SCT = Science Comprehension Thesis: "Members of the public do not know/think as scientists; they fail to take climate change as seriously as scientists believe they should."
3/ CCT = Cultural Cognition Thesis: "Individuals tend to form perceptions of societal risks that cohere with values characteristic of groups with which they identify. Members are motivated to fit their interpretations of scientific evidence to competing cultural philosophies."
4/ "As respondents' science-literacy scores increased, concern w/ climate change decreased (p=0.05). There was also a negative correlation between numeracy & climate risk (p<0.01).
"Differences were small but inconsistent with SCT, which predicts effects w/ the opposite signs."
5/ "Our data, consistent with previous studies, supported CCT's prediction.
"Hierarchical individualists (subjects scoring in the top half on both the Hierarchy & Individualism worldview scales) rated climate change risks significantly lower than did egalitarian communitarians.
6/ "Even controlling for scientific literacy and numeracy, both Hierarchy (p<0.01) and Individualism (p<0.01) predicted less concern over climate change."
7/ "These findings were consistent with previous ones showing that climate change has become highly politicized. Worldview & political orientation are modestly correlated. Nevertheless, the impact of worldview on climate change risk perceptions cannot be reduced to partisanship."
8/ "The difference in respective perceptions of climate change risk significantly exceeded what political-orientation measures alone would predict for individuals who identify themselves as conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats."
9/ "Polarization becomes larger as science literacy & numeracy increase.
"As the contribution that culture makes to disagreement grows as literacy & numeracy increase, it is not plausible to view cultural cognition as a substitute for capacities SCT views the public as lacking."
10/ "To test the generality of this conclusion, we also analyzed subjects' perceptions of nuclear-power risks. Egalitarian communitarians and hierarchical individualists were again polarized. Here, too, the gap between became larger as scientific literacy and numeracy increased."
11/ "If beliefs about a societal risk come to bear meanings congenial to some cultural outlooks but hostile to others, individuals will fail to converge, or at least fail to converge as rapidly as they should, on scientific information essential to their common interests.
12/ "Simply improving clarity of scientific information will not dispel conflict so long as debate features cultural meanings that divide citizens of opposing worldviews.
"Communicators should endeavor to create a deliberative climate that does not threaten any group's values."
3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.
"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."
2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."
3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).
"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)
…
* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium
… robeco.com/en-int/insight…
2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."
3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.
"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions."
2/ Part 1: Basic directional strategies
Part 2: Adjusted trend, trend and carry in different risk regimes, spot trend, seasonally-adjusted carry, normalized trend, asset class trend
Part 3: Breakouts, value, acceleration, skew
Part 4: Fast mean reversion
Part 5: Relative value
3/ Related reading
Time-Series Momentum
Two Centuries of Trend Following
https://t.co/R6JQb6Cg96
Carry
https://t.co/poFk6OWQsO
Value and Momentum Everywhere
https://t.co/l0wVgAOrhL
2/ "The broadly similar pattern of adverse health and well-being reported as new-onset at 6- and 12 months among test-positives and test-negatives highlights the non-specific nature of these symptoms and suggests that multiple aetiologies may be responsible."
3/ Related reading:
Efficacy of Vaccination on Symptoms of Patients With Long COVID