Ben Moll Profile picture
Jul 3, 2021 11 tweets 9 min read Read on X
OK I'll bite :-)

Off the top of my head, here are 6 reasons (in somewhat random order) why a heterogeneous agent model allows you do more than "just starting from the MPC>>0 and then going forward from there":

(I'm sure there are many others -- what else?) Image
1. The world is dynamic: future income affects current consumption and current income affects future consumption. This obviously matters for policy.

HA models provide a framework for this, see eg the nice exposition by @a_auclert Rognlie @ludwigstraub web.stanford.edu/~aauclert/ikc.… Image
2. We may want to compare different policy options within the same framework, e.g. how does fiscal policy compare to monetary policy?

Again HA models provide a framework for this, see e.g. this nice recent paper by @ChristianKWolf scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/… Image
3. We may want to think about the distributional and welfare effects of monetary and fiscal policy. Again HA models allow you to do this, see e.g. @glviolante ecb.europa.eu/pub/conference… and ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… Image
4. Q: how do we actually know how sensitive consumption is to current income?

A: mostly from micro evidence see e.g. the work of @ProfJAParker @p_ganong @pascaljnoel @Farrell_Diana @FionaGreigDC @AndreasFagereng @BlomhoffHolm @GNatvik @LorenzKueng @pilossopher @THEdanjlewis Image
4. (continued): would it perhaps be useful to have a framework that can connect to this micro evidence?

I happen to think so. HA models can do this. I struggle to see how the framework @JWMason1's envisions does this.
5. Related, I'd say there is really no such thing as *the* aggregate MPC. Instead there's a distribution of micro-level MPCs.

HA models feature exactly such a distribution and can connect with empirical evidence on it, see eg @GregWKaplan and @glviolante Image
6. There are lots of different potential transmission mechanisms of monetary and fiscal policy.

HA models provide an integrated organizing framework to think through these (and their distributional and dynamic effects), see e.g. benjaminmoll.com/research_agend… Image
OK let me stop here. What other reasons did I miss?

I should also add: obviously I'm not trying to say "all is amazing in macro."

And there are a number of arguments in @JWMason1's piece I'm quite sympathetic to, eg putting more emphasis on national accounting in PhD teaching
(p.s. I missed yesterday's EconFIP panel because it was a bit late in London so don't know what was discussed there)
Late addition:

7. Distribution may matter for aggregate MPC & dynamics more generally

Note: these distributional state vars can be v different from "inequality" e.g. distribution of savings from mortgage refinancing here arlene-wong.com/s/refinance.pdf

Thx @JohnHCochrane for nudging

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More from @ben_moll

Jun 28, 2024
How should we tax capital gains due to rising asset prices? On realization? On accrual? Or should we perhaps tax wealth?

The existing public finance literature has a big hole making it unsuitable for thinking about these issues: it doesn't model asset prices!

🧵 on a new paper: Image
We “put the ‘finance’ into ‘public finance’”, meaning that we study optimal redistributive taxation with changing asset prices.

Joint work with Mark Aguiar and @Florian_Scheuer

Paper here:

Slides here: benjaminmoll.com/PFPF/
benjaminmoll.com/PFPF_slides/
This is important because there have been a number of recent policy proposals to tax wealth or unrealized capital gains

Just 3 days ago @gabriel_zucman made one for @g20org

When does that make sense?

Read 24 tweets
Apr 29, 2024
🤓 Nerd tweet for the heterogeneous-agent macro crowd

You like sequence-space Jacobians? But you also like working in continuous time?

Then I have just the thing for you! 🤓

Two very nice recent papers and some code: Image
1. René Glawion's very nice continuous-time implementation of the @a_auclert @BardoczyBence Rognlie @ludwigstraub sequence-space method:
- “Sequence-Space Jacobians in Continuous Time”
- GitHub repository with codes papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
github.com/reneglawion/Se…
Image
2. @AdrienBilal and Shlok Goyal's paper on the same topic
- "Some Pleasant Sequence-Space Arithmetic in Continuous Time"

Pleasant indeed 😃 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 14, 2023
New study on China decoupling using similar approach to our work on the Russian gas cut-off.

Punchline: our results provide a rationale for embarking on gradual de-risking trajectory to avoid a much more costly cold turkey decoupling dictated by geopolitical events

Here is why:
1. Cold-turkey decoupling would be costly: "financial crisis in short-run + Brexit in long-run" is good way of thinking about it. So costly though still not Armageddon.

2. More gradual decoupling or de-risking --> smaller costs because it avoids the most extreme short run losses
So one can view the relatively low economic costs of gradual de-risking as an insurance premium paid to insure against the possibility of large losses and potential political backlash associated with a hard cold-turkey decoupling.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28, 2023
"The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect" with @MSchularick and @GeorgZachmann

Presentation tomorrow at 11:30am ET at @BrookingsEcon conference. Live stream brookings.edu/events/bpea-fa…

Draft: brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…

Slides: benjaminmoll.com/GGGD_slides/ Image
This is another follow-up on our "What If?" paper with @BachmannRudi @DBaqaee @christianbaye13 @kuhnmo @andreasloeschel @APeichl #KarenPittel.

Now with a systematic analysis how Germany blunted Putin's energy weapon.

This twitter thread of mine collecting concrete cases of substitution and demand reduction now also has a permanent home in the paper's appendix 😃

Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 11, 2023
I taught a new undergraduate macroeconomics course @LSEEcon. Goals:

1. *Modern* macro = microfoundations rather than IS-LM

2. Simple enough that undergrads get it

3. But still end up somewhere reasonably close to research frontier

All materials here https://t.co/58z85Oa53hbenjaminmoll.com/lectures/


Course description here

In case it's useful, e.g. for your own teaching: .zip file with all .tex files and figures etc so you can edit these notes yourself https://t.co/XJLQ2EB9fh https://t.co/2o08czNH8cbenjaminmoll.com/Syllabus_EC2B1…
benjaminmoll.com/EC2B1_Lecture_…
One thing I really enjoyed was to see how much of modern macro you can do with static or two-period models!

For example, check out my static (! 😃) Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model

https://t.co/CYjsKdvafLbenjaminmoll.com/Lecture10_EC2B…
Read 9 tweets
May 16, 2023
Here is my little Bob Lucas anecdote.

It's about Bob's incredible gift as a writer and his generosity toward his students.

It's the fall of 2009 and I'm a grad student at the University of Chicago. Bob is on my thesis committee.
I've just finished a first draft of my job market paper with which I will be applying for assistant professor jobs. I've put *a ton* of work into the paper and I'm pretty happy with it overall. I email it to Bob asking whether he could take a look, hoping for some verbal comments
Below is what it looked like at the time.

A day later Bob emails me back saying "Come by my office, I've got some minor comments." Image
Read 15 tweets

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