Thread by @CBHessick

There’s no denying that there’s been an increase in homicide and gun crimes.
If you looked only at Twitter reactions and media headlines, you’d think that we were living in some unprecedented-Mad-Max hellscape. Instead, the crime rate is still far lower than in the 1990s.
Why?

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1410904505340895233

One explanation is doubtlessly *how* the media covers the current increase. Focusing on % increases (rather than numbers) or cherry-picking particular statistics is effective clickbait. And it paints a picture of out-of-control crime. Here’s one example:

https://twitter.com/cbhessick/status/1409655482927644674?s=21

For more even-handed coverage of the crime increase, check out this article, which manages to not only provide prospective, but also avoids a misleading headline

google.com/amp/s/amp.theg…

A related, but distinct problem is what messages actually penetrate for people. Over the past few decades we’ve seen a pretty big disconnect between what crime rates are doing and what people *think* they are doing.

https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1411656119739691012

There’s also a third problem—one I’ve seen recently here on Twitter when engaging with people about crime policy—namely some people have decided that safety is a subjective rather than an objective question. If they don’t *feel* safe, then crime must be a problem in their area.

These people dismiss crime statistics as irrelevant (or only marginally relevant) to public safety. What they say matters is how they and other people in their communities *feel* about crime; if they are scared about crime, then crime is a problem.

This position is so astounding, I couldn’t believe it the first time I encountered it.

It’s like saying dragons are a problem for national security if my neighbors and I are afraid of dragons. And the fact that dragons aren’t actually real is irrelevant.

I’ve encountered several people who take this my-feelings-don’t-care about-your-facts approach to crime policy.

They think crime statistics are an unnecessary distraction from the crime policy debate and anyone who doesn’t live in their community can’t have an informed opinion

I’m tempted to dismiss this feelings-based approach to crime as just another example of “alternative facts” nonsense.

But because we lean so heavily on democracy in forming crime policy—including prosecutor & sheriff elections—this worldview is very troubling to me.

And so I’m excited to announce that @ppp_unc just received seed funding to conduct a pilot study of media coverage of criminal justice policy. We will be partnering with journalism experts to explore how prosecutors and their policies are covered.

As with most things, I imagine that we will find great variation across states and localities. But we also hope to be able to quantify how prosecutors are covered, including those prosecutors who have been pushing reform.