Thread by @shaunjlawson

THREAD: Semi-finals.

Let's start with one of Shaun's Alternative Laws of Football:

- Host nations are uniquely vulnerable in semi-finals.

Many host nations in football reach the last four: swept on by pride, passion and sometimes, referees. Few lose the final itself.

If they reach the final, momentum has built up to such an enormous degree that it's likely to carry them over the line.

Of course, it doesn't always happen: look at France in 2016 or Portugal in 2004. Though both were facing fantastically streetwise, gnarled, grizzled opponents.

Both France and Portugal had more than hinted at fragility at different points in those tournaments. The French were pretty pants in the 2016 group stage and rattled by Ireland in the last 16; Portugal 2004 weren't a patch on Portugal 2000, and lost their first game. To Greece.

Generally though, the host nation - especially if they have a degree of footballing prestige - will have found itself at some point en route, and look to be flying. But the semi-final is a completely different kind of test... and anxiety can spread very, very quickly.

In my football-watching life, I've seen:

- West Germany lose to a sensational Dutch display and last minute winner in 1988

- Italy get knocked out on an astonishingly melodramatic night in Naples in 1990 (which I wrote about in detail here):

https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1332807758308122630

- Sweden lose 3-2 to Germany in 1992

- England come within the width of Paul Gascoigne's studs of beating Germany in 1996

- Holland spectacularly implode v 10-man Italy in 2000, missing two penalties during the game itself

- Korea lose to Germany in 2002: thank heavens for which, given the disgusting corruption which had got the hosts there in the first place

- Germany lose THE best World Cup match of this century to Italy in 2006

- Brazil suffer the humiliation to end all humiliations in 2014

It's happened, in other words, pretty often.

There's something about semi-finals - so near yet so far, home fans going nuts before the game but getting over-anxious and over-wrought during it if it stays tight - which make them a unique challenge.

I've long regarded a place in the last four as the legitimate mark of success in international football. All the biggest nations *expect* their team to reach the semi-finals - but after that, it's about tiny details here and there. The bounce of a ball, a refereeing decision.

Or sensational opponents catching lightning in a bottle at exactly the right time - eg. Italy in 2006 or Germany in 2014.

Also, to be a semi-finalist in international football almost always requires at least a certain degree of flexibility and tactical sophistication.

*Almost always* - because Sweden in 1992 and 1994 were pretty straightforward and direct. But teams playing 4-4-2 have tended to find the quarter-finals are the glass ceiling; usually, some sort of extra vision and subtlety is needed to go further.

England played three at the back in 1990, and different systems in 1996. Combined with Paul Gascoigne in his only two major tournaments, that made a huge difference.

Southgate's England now play in different ways. And DO NOT play 4-4-2. That's made a huge difference too.

But it's maybe no coincidence that probably England's finest ever display in a major tournament was in the only semi-final we've ever won. Portugal at Wembley in 1966.

Beforehand, England had been pilloried around the world for being dull and functional.

After a marvellous contest, there was acceptance, even admiration for how good England were.

Maybe the greatest irony of our 50-year-long obsession with 4-4-2 after winning in '66 is... that side were wingless wonders! It was narrow and unconventional.

But think how different our whole history would look if we'd had the right attitude to penalties. We didn't seriously practice them under Bobby Robson or Glenn Hoddle; Sven-Goran Eriksson thought they were a 'lottery' 🙄🙄🙄. While Germany treated them with utmost seriousness.

Penalties are the ultimate test of technique under maximum pressure. And of preparation, preparation, preparation.

As someone who's been there, done that, and learnt a hideously cruel lesson, naturally, Southgate prepares us for them properly.

So hitherto the worst nation at penalties in the world (played 7, lost 6 before Southgate) have won our last 2 shootouts. The players practice and practice and practice at putting the ball in the exact right spot; like a golfer putting hundreds of times a day.

These players are much better technically than any previous England squad - because they've been coached differently throughout their development. England's improvement owes a great deal to the FA... but also to Guardiola, Klopp, Tuchel and others. The best coaches in the world.

When Spain won in 2010, Guardiola's Barcelona were dominating.

When Germany won in 2014, their players were almost entirely drawn from Guardiola's Bayern and Klopp's Dortmund.

That England are now contenders is not a coincidence given those two managers' brilliance in the PL.

Players like Mason Mount or Ben Chilwell have come on leaps and bounds under a great, great coach in Tuchel.

Or alternatively, look at Jaden Sancho and Jude Bellingham: with the courage to go abroad and learn about a different footballing culture. So unlike past English players.

And no question: having at times had a very good looking first XI but no squad depth whatsoever - or a journeyman squad with zero squad depth in 2018 - suddenly, England have one of the best squads in the world. Which is only going to get better over the next 3-5 years.

But it still remains to be seen if we can handle the unique pressure of a semi-final - against opponents we're expected to beat, but are horribly hard to play against, and are riding a wave of emotion which can't be emulated.

Opponents who won at Wembley in the Nations League.

Opponents who historically, we've often struggled against.

Opponents who, if it goes to penalties, will likely be pretty relaxed... because they've already gone so far beyond expectations. And who KNOW more than anyone that it's just a football match.

It remains more the norm than the exception that to win a major tournament, you have to win a penalty shootout en route.

- Portugal 2016
- Spain 2012
- Spain 2008
- Italy 2006
- France 1998
- Germany 1996
- Brazil 1994
- Denmark 1992
- West Germany 1990

And while France, to their everlasting credit, managed it in 2018, it is incredibly rare for a team to win a World Cup or Euros without being taken to extra time en route. Only Brazil in 2002 - who had a very soft draw - matched the French in that.

I think Wednesday night has extra time written all over it. It might very well go all the way to spot kicks too. At least this time, I know we're in the best possible hands if it does.

But this is the real acid test now.

The England men's team have played 6 semi-finals in our history and lost 5 of them.

The England women's team have lost in the last 3 major tournaments back to back in the semis, and also lost in 1984 and 2009.

Even at our best, we've constantly been a nation of semi-finalists

Compare this with:

- Italy: 11 semi-finals played, 9 won

- Spain: 5 semi-finals played, 5 won

This, in other words, is where great sides find a way. As Southgate always says, our players keep making their own history. Now's their latest chance to put the past where it belongs.

PS. Copa America winners who've needed to win a penalty shootout en route:

Chile 2016
Chile 2015
Uruguay 2011
Brazil 2007
Brazil 2004
Uruguay 1995
Argentina 1993

It's a critical component of most Champion teams' armoury.