Javid: "We must all continue to carefully manage the risks from covid and exercise judgement when going about our lives". What does this look like? What behaviours does it lead to that are different from what we did pre-covid?
Which things are risky and how should we manage that risk? When can we stop managing the risk? Does the government mind if we just don't bother? Does it mind if we overdo it and manage the risks by avoiding them, not going out, not spending?
How do we know if the privately carefully managing covid risks system is going well? Is there a target for the number of deaths or hospital cases? Do we have to carefully manage at different levels according to how these numbers go? Or is it entirely up to us?
If lots of people carefully manage the covid risk by not spending as much or going out, are the businesses and people affected by the loss of income on their own?
What happens if I think I need other people to help carefully manage the covid risk, because otherwise without that I have no hope of carefully managing it?
If we are not managing carefully the risks enough will they come and tell us? Are there any model examples the govt can point to? What about the risk of manufacturing new variants evolving in the presence of the vaccines? How do we manage that one carefully?

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More from @t0nyyates

6 Jul
This would have been the moment to resign. That he didn’t allows the govt to imply his blessing.
That should read ‘a moment’. There have been several policy disasters that he’s helped launder with his continuity of service.
He and others might think 'this is too critical a time for a key person to leave the operation; much better to influence policy for the better within'.
Read 9 tweets
5 Jul
Johnson speech: if we can't reopen now when Summer puts the virus at a disadvantage, when can we reopen? Well, when we have vaccinated everyone. How about that?
And if the idea is to infect everyone, why bother with border controls at all? At least until a variant we don't have is identified. Why pick on international travel to restrict freedom?
Johnson: it's the 73rd birthday of the NHS... and what a fitting moment to launch a surge in virus cases, when we are not sure about the link of cases to long covid, nor the risk of manufacturing new variants in the face of the vaccine.
Read 6 tweets
4 Jul
This seems to be happening without any real debate. There is a sunset clause on old anti covid measures and that is that. Nothing much from Labour, LibDems.
What is the increased risk of mutation and vaccine escape by doing this, relative to holding or tightening while we vaccinate further down the age spectrum? What would the likely response of nearby partners be to us? What is the difference in deaths and incapacitations?
What is the anticipated boost to spending? How much would it be tempered by the increased virus prevalence, even at the lower risk of mortality? [I'm not going to do any retail, hospitality or transport or face to face work for 6 months now I think - am I peculiar?]
Read 7 tweets
4 Jul
Join the single market, for starters. Then inventors that want to come from there, at least, our largest and nearest market, can do. The UK state reform guru is like Heath Robinson trying to invent machines to solve a problem that isn't a problem.
This current era is going to be another lesson in why the EU was such a good thing for the UK. In many ways it shielded the people from the sometimes malign, sometimes well intentioned but incompetent effect of cranks having influence over policy levers.
Groups on the right and the left liked the idea of Brexit because it would free up aspects of industrial, regulatory, trade and immigration policy. But they each assume some utopian vision where the other lot never get in power to pull the levers themselves.
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
15 months into the pandemic, we have the great insight in an internal assessment that existing policies for self isolation are not effective.
This is one of the effects of not having out in the open independent econ-epidemiological models to do policy experiments.
In such a framework, the £ spent on supporting self isolation can be compared to the £ returned in a combination of looser restrictions / less £ on furlough and healthcare.
Read 6 tweets
16 Jun
This is a great piece by @rafaelbehr circulated by lots of others on here but I am doing it to. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
The madness has many concrete sources. The invisibility and forgettability of the difficulties of doing business pre the single market / difficulties in understanding large numbers / lack of comprehension of the counter factual / ..
/ the unsexiness of the status quo next to the grand critique / the fragmentation of the left / the concentration of Remain votes in large urban constituencies /
Read 5 tweets

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