For those interested in our epistemic convulsions, @jon_rauch has written quite a bit about this; here's the essay on which his book is based: nationalaffairs.com/publications/d…. He's more optimistic than I am. He thinks our institutions are holding up reasonably well against the onslaught,
and will ultimately prevail; I would argue that no, they can't be said to be holding up well at all. If anyone's interested, I'll go through the institutions he names, one by one, and explain why I think so; I don't see that any of our institutions really have the alacrity--
--or the sense of urgency--to respond to the attack on what he calls the constitution of knowledge. Like Rauch, they deep down believe that they've been around forever and they'll be around forever, so they don't have to treat this as an emergency.
Trolling, as he puts it, is only half the equation in considering the collapse of confidence in institutions; the other half is the filtering process that puts people in those institutions in the first place--
and results in the institutions being staffed by people who are quite unlike the rest of the public, and thus loathed by a significant number from the outset. If you add what he calls trolling to the mix, then add a series of spectacular and flamboyant institutional screwups,
you wind up with what we used to think of as something that only happened in very sad, pitiable countries somewhere very far away: large numbers of Americans dying of a now-preventable disease because the trolls have persuaded them that vaccines represent a dangerous plot.
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This is very comprehensive, yes. It's excellent. But the simplest argument, I think, and the one that I hope might persuade people who won't read anything longer than a tweet, is this one:
Assume, for the sake of argument, that the spike protein is a poison.
You have two choices.
Would you like a finite dose of poison?
Or would you like your poison attached to a virus?
Proteins don't replicate. *Viruses do.* Viruses take your cells hostage and turn them into virus-making factories. Each new virus comes with ... a spike protein.
So which is the better bet? Spike proteins in a dose so limited that your immune system can quickly despatch it to hell? Or spike proteins travelling on a virus that replicates, meaning within days there are more of these proteins than there are grains of sand on the earth?
What's even more alarming about this story is that it happened three months ago and this is the first hint of it in the media. But the State Department has--from the article--been involved from the beginning. Shouldn't this have been an obstacle to a big Biden-Putin summit?
A summit, incidentally, followed by massive Russian cyberattacks? I think we're failing to convey properly this whole message we've been assured Putin was given, about "consequences." Either that or we're failing to inflict them.
Does anyone seriously think he'll stop if no one makes his life--and that of the people around him--a lot less pleasant than they are right now? It only stops when things get a lot less fun for Putin. He *enjoys* these jolly escapades in international vandalism.
I can no longer remember the name of the professor who taught my intro to logic class. I can't even remember his face. But that class had more influence on me than any other I've had.
It was just a standard intro class. Basics of predicate and propositional logic, truth tables. But they got to me when I was young enough and my brain plastic enough that it *really* stuck. It had the effect on me of a religious conversion.
I don't know why logic is no longer considered the proper foundation of childhood education. It shouldn't be possible to get any kind of undergraduate degree--in the sciences or liberal arts--without taking a class like that.
I suspect some people won't read an argument about vaccines and risk if it means reading a long essay, but might read it if I tweet it, sentence by sentence. I don't have the patience, but I'll repeat some of the arguments: claireberlinski.substack.com/p/epistemic-ch…
If you want to base your views of the safety and efficacy of mRNA vaccines or ivermectin on the most reliable information--not perfect, not infallible, but "best we've got right now"--"we" being humanity--here's a reasonable way to do it:
1. Get off social media, stop listening to YouTube and podcasts, and instead open Google Scholar. This gives you access to literature that's been published, at least, in the goal of increasing humanity's stock of justified, true beliefs.
It may well turn out to be exactly the same film. So far the evidence for ivermectin is poor quality and limited, but there are genuinely some hints it may be of value. Definitely a good enough reason to study it properly. And if good quality evidence shows it has real efficacy--
I'll become the biggest ivermectin booster on the planet, and all of it's advocates will say, "See! We told you so." But they told us so based on bad reasoning. They may hold a *true* belief, but it isn't a *justified* true belief,
and thus it is not knowledge, but a hunch--be it a lucky or unlucky one. Some powerful things are working against the hypothesis--among them, that at doses required to have the effect ivermectin does on SARS-CoV-2 cells in vitro, it would cause an overdose in humans;
I listened. Carefully. I also created a transcript of everything they said, and read it, carefully. I cross-referenced every claim, and read the evidence for it. Carefully. This took me a while. I then wrote a long, careful response, explaining why I believe they're--
... bad at math, let's say charitably. Or another charitable thought is that they're so eager to heal the world--and so exhausted by the pandemic and its associated trauma and grief--that they're falling victim to wishful thinking, or even a persecutory delusion.
One thing, however, of which I'm sure, is this: No evidence we have now, or at least, none *they have presented,* suggests the conclusions we should draw from it are those they've drawn. And if I could just persuade you to read--