SA yet another example of how wrong liberal universalists were that you could superimpose a Western-style liberal democratic framework on any country and out the other side would come rainbows and unicorns. Failure must now be blamed on anything but Pretorian mass democracy.
The bet was that SA's immense social complexity could be mediated by a centralised democratic order with theoretical 'democratic institutions' and 'checks and balances' without those things properly existing in real life. Something like a Cargo Cult order - form without function.
Liberals of all stripes won't admit it, but South Africa has failed in virtually exactly the way and for the very reasons that conservatives predicted it would - corruption, incompetence, and using the state as a means of imposing cultural dominance through crude majoritarianism.
Also not readily admitted by the True Believers is that South Africa reveals the profound weakness of abstract rationalism in the making of a political order. That's why the establishment gets apoplectic at conservative critique - it's absolutely devastating to their worldview.
As a result, the establishment can only bear to critique from the liberal democratic frame: it wasn't implemented properly; the commies took over; Zupta wot dunnit; whites blocking nation-building; vote better etc.
Go outside the frame for answers, and you must be cancelled.
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The '57-58 flu is estimated to have killed in one year around 100k Americans, or about 200k in today's population terms. The age profile of death was notably younger than Covid, and pregnant women appear to have been one of the high risk categories.
According to this 2009 paper, "The highest attack rates were in school-age children through young adults up to 35 or 40 years of age...It was attributed to the complete absence of protective antibody among children and young and middle-aged adults." pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5a81/5104a7c03… [pg 7]
Best news of 2020 was Covid isn't dangerous to children, after panic that the young could be vulnerable. None of the miserable Covid fearmongers actually celebrated this fact. They just pivoted to new fear campaigns and pretended that children were still risk vectors. Nuts.
Children are the bright light of Covid. Closing schools or masking children all day at school and pumping them full of Covid fear is a macabre type of abuse by a generation of cowardly adults.
Last night, a peaceful couple was executed in cold blood on their farm near Newcastle KZN, with no apparent motive other than some form of sick terrorism. Criminologically, this can't be likened to (also horrendous) township violence. Different problem.
My work on this problem so far leads me to the tentative conclusion that on avg male farmers are murdered at a similar rate to the avg SAfrican male. This is often taken to mean that farm murders are not a uniquely bad problem, but I think it supports the opposite conclusion.
Firstly, male commercial farmers are not the average SAfrican male. They are middle-to-high income earners, living in extremely low-density, formal & secure houses. They are also considerably older than the avg male, roughly twice the age. Any criminologist would tell you that...
Putting highly sensitive, unproven assumptions into models with hundreds/thousands of lines of opaque code spitting out numbers that get handed to bureaucrats to tell tens of millions of people how to live is not how any of this is supposed to work
The epistemological and political philosophy failure that this entire chain of policy formation entails represents what's wrong in most other areas of public policy. This technocratic authoritarianism remains THE barrier to progress in C21st, thrusting us toward impoverishment.
The fact that 'the models' were hopelessly wrong irks me far less than the fact they were used to devise a course of action that violated human agency in the most egregious and unconscionable fashion. That's where the real shame lies, not with play-play spreadsheets.
As the chattering classes fawn over the president's "stunning and brave" lockdown leadership, the truth, as always, alludes them. Lockdown reveals a weak, unimaginative, detached, reckless, weather vane leader. 1/n
1. The state doesn't have the capacity to enforce lockdown or deal with its resultant chaos. The president made one of the most fundamental strategy errors - committing his govt beyond its logistical capabilities. 2. Expecting the poorest SAns to endure lockdown itself and the
resulting economic fall-out reveals detachment from reality, far too ensconced in palace affairs and nursing the patronage networks of his elite circle to realise how unpopular his plan is with the masses. 3. Applying a one-size-fits-all plan for 60 mil ppl shows the president
All JSE Alsi real total returns (real $) since 1994 occurred in just 5 years: 2002-2007. Outside of that period (1994-2002 & 2007-2019), real $ Alsi delivered - 0.9%/year.
2002-2007 Alsi real $ gains came on the back of a commodity boom, global debt binge, and rapid domestic capital consumption to fund rampant household consumption. The company carnage on the JSE is testament to a very widespread destruction of wealth.
Also wouldn't underestimate how leveraged BEE financial engineering on a mountain of easy money from '03/04 goosed the SA stock market. Doesn't mean wealth wasn't created during this period, only that it was simultaneously destroyed elsewhere. Go see the carnage in small-town SA.