Robert Colvile Profile picture
Jul 6, 2021 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
We've just published a huge set of polling from @FrankLuntz on the new values and language of British politics. You can find the full thing here, but I thought I'd summarise the most arresting findings. (Warning: long, but worthwhile) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
First things first: the public is really pissed off! Solid majority for 'fuck 'em all' to both business and political leaders Image
Likewise, when we asked them to pick the words that represented their feelings towards same, they were overwhelmingly negative ImageImage
(Quick ops note: Frank's method is to give people a load of choices and ask them to pick their top two/three/four. Hence percentages adding to more than 100.)
Not to belabour the point, but when you ask people what politicians are in it for, this is the answer you get... Image
And likewise, these were their top picks when asked to describe British businesses. Image
As I wrote in my @thesundaytimes column, there's a huge challenge here for free market types like me - it's not just that people don't like business, but that messages and language around aspiration, competitiveness, entrepreneurship just don't resonate thetimes.co.uk/article/aspira…
So what do voters want instead? Well, here are their top picks. Image
They're worried about the NHS... Image
They're worried about crime and increasingly about cost of living - expect both to start hitting the headlines much more often... ImageImage
And they're worried about the gap between rich and poor, especially Labour voters. Image
Politically, the big gap between Tory and Labour (which I want to write about more) is optimism vs pessimism. That may be down to who's in power, or it may be deeper-rooted. The gap in these three questions is fascinating in terms of, essentially, whether Britain is broken ImageImageImage
There's lots in the survey about woke, cancel culture etc, but that's been covered elsewhere so I won't go into it here. But the age breakdown here is utterly fascinating, which goes hand in hand with the party breakdown above. Image
There is loads of utterly fascinating stuff in the survey (that link again here cps.org.uk/media/press-re…), but I'll finish on some personal highlights
This is from the business questions we asked, but applies more widely. Climate change isn't a partisan issue any more. Uniquely (says Frank), the right and the left are both concerned about it. Image
(Uniquely as in vs other countries.)

Climate is also the exception to the rule that, as Frank told the Sunday Telegraph, people mostly just want companies to shut up about CSR and purpose and focus on doing a better job for their workers and customers telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/0…
Other striking findings: always call yourself an employer, never a business, and delete 'corporation' from the dictionary. Image
Even Tory voters care about protecting the poorest and most vulnerable Image
Overwhelmingly, we all think we put in more than we get out... Image
...and that government is wasting the cash it already spends, either on the rich (Labour) or immigrants/scroungers (Tories). (Stunningly low figures for 'the poor', 'people like me', 'hardworking taxpayers' etc.) ImageImage
I don't think it's in the slide deck, but it is also impossible to overstate how much Tory voters hate foreign aid spending. Sorry, Andrew Mitchell, but they're not with you on this.
Finally, a quick illustration of why the Tories are in a better position than Labour. Both the public and Tory voters prefer the party of today to Cameron's (though there is a lingering pash for Thatcher). But everyone still misses Mr Tony Image
If you found any of that interesting, please join @FrankLuntz and @nfergus for a @CPSThinkTank event tomorrow on 'The New Language of Politics', at which they'll be discussing all this and more. Sign up here us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
And obviously please follow me, Frank and @CPSThinkTank for more insight, both from his survey work and our amazing team of researchers
PS For those asking why the language differs on the final slide between ‘hate’ and ‘strongly oppose’, it’s a typo. We changed it for both but didn’t update properly.

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More from @rcolvile

Nov 27
A friend points out a £1bn problem with the Budget measures on employee ownership trusts. It's a bad idea anyway - employee share ownership is good! - but it's made worse by a very basic error in the way they've structured it. (1/?)
Under an EOT, a founder sells all or some of their shares to a trust, which passes them on to the workers. They pay no tax on the sale. But they don't get the money straight off - the new trust pays for the shares *from the profits in future years*. Image
Under the new plan, the govt will restrict the tax relief to half of the shares handed over, meaning the rest will be liable to CGT - so working out to 12% of the value. But it will charge that CGT *straight away*. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 24
On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves is going to stand up and lie to the public. She's not unique. Every Chancellor does. That's because, as a new @CPSThinkTank report shows, our Budget system is fundamentally broken. (1/?) Image
Every Chancellor claims they'll balance the books by the end of 'the forecast period' or 'the economic cycle'. Every Chancellor, at every Budget, meets their fiscal rules. And yet the debt grows and grows. What's happening? Image
As I pointed out in my column yesterday, there are all sorts of problems with our five-year forecasts - in the words of Simon Case to @ShippersUnbound, you're trying to land a jumbo jet on a postage stamp. Here for example are OBR predictions vs eventual reality. Image
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Read 9 tweets
Nov 9
As the country prepares for Budget-geddon, there is one precedent that the govt is desperately clinging on to: 2002, when a Labour government raised income taxes - and shot up in the polls. How did they do it? (1/?)
In 2002, Gordon Brown raised NI by 1p to fund a historic expansion in NHS spending - in pursuit of Tony Blair's (impromptu) commitment to match European health spending. It was, as the then health secretary said, 'overwhelmingly popular'. Image
Today, things are v different. But polling by @SteveAkehurst suggests that voters in general - and Labour 2024 voters in particular - might be happier about the govt getting waiting lists down than they would be angry about taxes going up, esp if those taxes are on 'the rich'. Image
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Read 14 tweets
Aug 17
‘If you want to raise serious money, it is a childish fantasy to pretend that you can do so solely from the few rather than the many.’ Me in @thetimes today on why Labour MPs and activists calling for a wealth tax need to grow up fast. Thread fellows (1/?) Image
The same Labour voices who blocked welfare reforms, forcing Reeves to raise taxes, are now calling for all manner of other goodies - while pretending that the necessary tax rises can be simple and painless. But they absolutely can’t. Image
As I point out in my column (link below), we already tax the rich! Let’s look at the income tax stats.

Top 50% - 75.6% of income, 90.1% of tax

Top 10% - 34.4% of income, 58.6% of tax

Top 1% - 12.6% of income, 26.6% of tax

thetimes.com/comment/column…
Read 20 tweets
Aug 10
The problem isn’t that the Chancellor is going to raise taxes. It’s that unless something drastic changes, she and her successors are going to have to do it again, and again, and again. Me for @thetimes - thread follows (1/?) Image
My column today is on Reeves’s tax rises. But my core argument is that what we’re seeing is the earlier-than-expected arrival of what’s always been coming - an irreconcilable clash between how much we want to spend, and how much we can afford to. thetimes.com/comment/column…
Obviously, Labour’s tax rises, and the summer of uncertainty that preceded them, were horrendous for growth - and as @ArmitageJim says in this great analysis piece, we’re in for exactly the same summer thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 6
I am normally a slavish devotee of @Dannythefink, but I think this on the Online Safety Act misses the mark profoundly (1/?) thetimes.com/comment/column…Image
Danny's thesis is that the OSA has just come in, and we should approach it with an open mind until we know how it's actually working. But that ignores everything about how the OSA was put together, and in particular the staggering ignorance shown by lawmakers during that process.
Everyone who knew even the slightest bit about tech had profound concerns about this law, ranging from the core idea of 'legal but harmful' speech, to the chilling effect on tech investment, to the way a law meant to target Google/Meta would actually entrench their dominance.
Read 7 tweets

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