We've just published a huge set of polling from @FrankLuntz on the new values and language of British politics. You can find the full thing here, but I thought I'd summarise the most arresting findings. (Warning: long, but worthwhile) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
First things first: the public is really pissed off! Solid majority for 'fuck 'em all' to both business and political leaders
Likewise, when we asked them to pick the words that represented their feelings towards same, they were overwhelmingly negative
(Quick ops note: Frank's method is to give people a load of choices and ask them to pick their top two/three/four. Hence percentages adding to more than 100.)
Not to belabour the point, but when you ask people what politicians are in it for, this is the answer you get...
And likewise, these were their top picks when asked to describe British businesses.
As I wrote in my @thesundaytimes column, there's a huge challenge here for free market types like me - it's not just that people don't like business, but that messages and language around aspiration, competitiveness, entrepreneurship just don't resonate thetimes.co.uk/article/aspira…
So what do voters want instead? Well, here are their top picks.
They're worried about the NHS...
They're worried about crime and increasingly about cost of living - expect both to start hitting the headlines much more often...
And they're worried about the gap between rich and poor, especially Labour voters.
Politically, the big gap between Tory and Labour (which I want to write about more) is optimism vs pessimism. That may be down to who's in power, or it may be deeper-rooted. The gap in these three questions is fascinating in terms of, essentially, whether Britain is broken
There's lots in the survey about woke, cancel culture etc, but that's been covered elsewhere so I won't go into it here. But the age breakdown here is utterly fascinating, which goes hand in hand with the party breakdown above.
There is loads of utterly fascinating stuff in the survey (that link again here cps.org.uk/media/press-re…), but I'll finish on some personal highlights
This is from the business questions we asked, but applies more widely. Climate change isn't a partisan issue any more. Uniquely (says Frank), the right and the left are both concerned about it.
(Uniquely as in vs other countries.)
Climate is also the exception to the rule that, as Frank told the Sunday Telegraph, people mostly just want companies to shut up about CSR and purpose and focus on doing a better job for their workers and customers telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/0…
Other striking findings: always call yourself an employer, never a business, and delete 'corporation' from the dictionary.
Even Tory voters care about protecting the poorest and most vulnerable
Overwhelmingly, we all think we put in more than we get out...
...and that government is wasting the cash it already spends, either on the rich (Labour) or immigrants/scroungers (Tories). (Stunningly low figures for 'the poor', 'people like me', 'hardworking taxpayers' etc.)
I don't think it's in the slide deck, but it is also impossible to overstate how much Tory voters hate foreign aid spending. Sorry, Andrew Mitchell, but they're not with you on this.
Finally, a quick illustration of why the Tories are in a better position than Labour. Both the public and Tory voters prefer the party of today to Cameron's (though there is a lingering pash for Thatcher). But everyone still misses Mr Tony
And obviously please follow me, Frank and @CPSThinkTank for more insight, both from his survey work and our amazing team of researchers
PS For those asking why the language differs on the final slide between ‘hate’ and ‘strongly oppose’, it’s a typo. We changed it for both but didn’t update properly.
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I can't believe that @Ed_Miliband is still using that £300 figure, but here is a quick recap of why it is hugely misleading - in fact, nakedly dishonest. (1/?)
The report comes from Ember, a pro-green consultancy set up by Bryony Worthington, a Labour peer and Miliband ally. It claims, as does Miliband, that 'a clean power system saves UK households £300 per year'.
But that is massively out, for two reasons. First, it takes its starting point the level of the energy price cap in Q3 2023, of £2,074 - which was still hugely elevated as a result of the Ukraine crisis. It has now fallen to £1,717.
Hugely important paper from @CPSThinkTank today - showing significant and repeated left-wing bias among all of the most popular LLMs on questions of politics and policy. (1/?)
For the paper, @DavidRozado asked 24 LLMs a range of neutral questions:
- To propose multiple policy ideas for the UK/EU
- To describe UK/European leaders
- To describe UK/European parties
- To describe various mainstream ideologies
- To describe various extreme ideologies
@DavidRozado For the UK and EU, we asked for ideas on tax, housing, environment, civil rights, defence, etc etc. In total, we ended up with 14,000 policy proposals for each. More than 80% were left-coded, often markedly so.
The @ONS has published its latest stats on smoking. And it's good news! In 2023, smoking fell to the lowest level on record in every part of the UK. (1/?) ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
In particular, there has been a sharp and continuing rise in the number of people who have quit smoking. But as this chart shows, that didn't coincide with any new ban. That sudden spike upwards since the mid-2010s matches the rise of... vaping.
In fact, young people have seen the largest rise in vaping, and the largest fall in smoking. (Age ranges don't quite overlap, but you get the picture.)
Over the years since the Second World War, the great cities of the West have grown and thrived. But there is one big exception. The boundaries of London still sit where they did when the builders down tools in 1939. Why? The green belt. (1/?) thetimes.com/article/labour…
If you look at a map of New York (source animation here ), or Macron's plans for 'Le Grand Paris' (), you can see how capital cities have grown and can grow. vimeo.com/297249350 capx.co/revealed-how-p…
But in London, street after street on the edges simply... stops.
As the GB Energy Bill passes second reading, a quick reminder of how incredibly dodgy the maths behind Labour's energy policies is. (1/?)
Labour has promised to completely decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030. Most experts think that's completely impossible, at least without spending very, very large amounts.
Still! Labour has promised not only that we can do this, but that it will save everyone £300 on their bills. But there are big, big problems with this number.
Are the Southport riots a turning point for Britain? Do they reveal something new, hideous and broken about our society? Lots of commentators are saying so, very loudly. But there's still a strong chance - if you go purely by historical precedent - that the answer is no. (1/?)
When the London riots happened in 2011, I wrote an op-ed on '10 ways in which these riots will change Britain'. There was universal agreement that they would do so (as well as some extraordinary attempts to argue that this just proved what the writer had been saying all along).
But a much more accurate version of my article would have been just two words: 'They won't.' In fact, when I looked back on almost a decade of my political blogging, the main predictive error I made was to think that whatever was in the headlines that week would shift the dial.