Robert Colvile Profile picture
Jul 6, 2021 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
We've just published a huge set of polling from @FrankLuntz on the new values and language of British politics. You can find the full thing here, but I thought I'd summarise the most arresting findings. (Warning: long, but worthwhile) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
First things first: the public is really pissed off! Solid majority for 'fuck 'em all' to both business and political leaders Image
Likewise, when we asked them to pick the words that represented their feelings towards same, they were overwhelmingly negative ImageImage
(Quick ops note: Frank's method is to give people a load of choices and ask them to pick their top two/three/four. Hence percentages adding to more than 100.)
Not to belabour the point, but when you ask people what politicians are in it for, this is the answer you get... Image
And likewise, these were their top picks when asked to describe British businesses. Image
As I wrote in my @thesundaytimes column, there's a huge challenge here for free market types like me - it's not just that people don't like business, but that messages and language around aspiration, competitiveness, entrepreneurship just don't resonate thetimes.co.uk/article/aspira…
So what do voters want instead? Well, here are their top picks. Image
They're worried about the NHS... Image
They're worried about crime and increasingly about cost of living - expect both to start hitting the headlines much more often... ImageImage
And they're worried about the gap between rich and poor, especially Labour voters. Image
Politically, the big gap between Tory and Labour (which I want to write about more) is optimism vs pessimism. That may be down to who's in power, or it may be deeper-rooted. The gap in these three questions is fascinating in terms of, essentially, whether Britain is broken ImageImageImage
There's lots in the survey about woke, cancel culture etc, but that's been covered elsewhere so I won't go into it here. But the age breakdown here is utterly fascinating, which goes hand in hand with the party breakdown above. Image
There is loads of utterly fascinating stuff in the survey (that link again here cps.org.uk/media/press-re…), but I'll finish on some personal highlights
This is from the business questions we asked, but applies more widely. Climate change isn't a partisan issue any more. Uniquely (says Frank), the right and the left are both concerned about it. Image
(Uniquely as in vs other countries.)

Climate is also the exception to the rule that, as Frank told the Sunday Telegraph, people mostly just want companies to shut up about CSR and purpose and focus on doing a better job for their workers and customers telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/0…
Other striking findings: always call yourself an employer, never a business, and delete 'corporation' from the dictionary. Image
Even Tory voters care about protecting the poorest and most vulnerable Image
Overwhelmingly, we all think we put in more than we get out... Image
...and that government is wasting the cash it already spends, either on the rich (Labour) or immigrants/scroungers (Tories). (Stunningly low figures for 'the poor', 'people like me', 'hardworking taxpayers' etc.) ImageImage
I don't think it's in the slide deck, but it is also impossible to overstate how much Tory voters hate foreign aid spending. Sorry, Andrew Mitchell, but they're not with you on this.
Finally, a quick illustration of why the Tories are in a better position than Labour. Both the public and Tory voters prefer the party of today to Cameron's (though there is a lingering pash for Thatcher). But everyone still misses Mr Tony Image
If you found any of that interesting, please join @FrankLuntz and @nfergus for a @CPSThinkTank event tomorrow on 'The New Language of Politics', at which they'll be discussing all this and more. Sign up here us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
And obviously please follow me, Frank and @CPSThinkTank for more insight, both from his survey work and our amazing team of researchers
PS For those asking why the language differs on the final slide between ‘hate’ and ‘strongly oppose’, it’s a typo. We changed it for both but didn’t update properly.

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More from @rcolvile

Sep 9
Over the years since the Second World War, the great cities of the West have grown and thrived. But there is one big exception. The boundaries of London still sit where they did when the builders down tools in 1939. Why? The green belt. (1/?) thetimes.com/article/labour…
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If you look at a map of New York (source animation here ), or Macron's plans for 'Le Grand Paris' (), you can see how capital cities have grown and can grow. vimeo.com/297249350
capx.co/revealed-how-p…

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But in London, street after street on the edges simply... stops.

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Read 25 tweets
Sep 5
As the GB Energy Bill passes second reading, a quick reminder of how incredibly dodgy the maths behind Labour's energy policies is. (1/?)
Labour has promised to completely decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030. Most experts think that's completely impossible, at least without spending very, very large amounts.
Still! Labour has promised not only that we can do this, but that it will save everyone £300 on their bills. But there are big, big problems with this number.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 4
Are the Southport riots a turning point for Britain? Do they reveal something new, hideous and broken about our society? Lots of commentators are saying so, very loudly. But there's still a strong chance - if you go purely by historical precedent - that the answer is no. (1/?)
When the London riots happened in 2011, I wrote an op-ed on '10 ways in which these riots will change Britain'. There was universal agreement that they would do so (as well as some extraordinary attempts to argue that this just proved what the writer had been saying all along). Image
But a much more accurate version of my article would have been just two words: 'They won't.' In fact, when I looked back on almost a decade of my political blogging, the main predictive error I made was to think that whatever was in the headlines that week would shift the dial.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 31
Yesterday, the Govt published new housing targets. The ambition – to expand housebuilding – is hugely welcome. But if you go council by council, there are BIG problems, which have the potential to a) cause huge resistance b) deliver housing where it’s least needed. Strap in (1/?)
The govt is saying the new measure takes more account of affordability. But a map of housing affordability (R) looks NOTHING like what it’s done to council-level targets (L). If anything, the opposite.
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This is all the more puzzling because they have adjusted the formula to take much more account of affordability. The 'adjustment factor' - the weight given to affordability - has gone from 0.25 to 0.6, ie 2.4 times as much. So what's going on?
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Read 26 tweets
Jul 30
I like a lot of things about Labour's housing reforms. But the decision to let London off the hook has me properly fuming. Quick thread. (1/?)
When you're in power, you get to fuck over the people who didn't vote for you. That's life. The Tories did that with the 'urban uplift', which hacked housing targets in order to force more homes into the big cities. And now Labour have done the opposite.
The result is the pattern in this chart (via @JenWilliams_FT) - housing targets hiked in the North and the shires, lowered in the big cities. (Uplift was 35%, which helps explain some of these figures.) Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 30
Right. Have been reading the changes to the NPPF, and it is genuinely game-changing on the green belt, in a way that is ambitious, necessary and potentially v v controversial - but also has very little to do with the 'grey belt'. Quick thread on what's changed. (1/?)
The new NPPF (which they've helpfully done track changes on) introduces a new category of green belt land called 'grey belt', which is exempt from existing restrictions on green belt land. Image
This is defined as land that has been previously developed, or 'makes a limited contribution to the five Green Belt purposes'. Image
Read 12 tweets

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