You may have seen that the Israeli MoH claims that Pfizer vaccine efficacy has dropped to 64% in Israel, concurrent with the rise of the Delta variant.
The MoH has now published more details on the methodology. Briefly: negative binomial regression controlling for week and age.
The MoH has now published more details on the methodology. Briefly: negative binomial regression controlling for week and age.
In my opinion this leaves *a lot* of potential confounders unaccounted for. Vaccination rates in Israel have converged to 70-90%, with older ppl generally more vaccinated.
There are many potential differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. There are further differences in their inclination and formal incentives for being tested for COVID. All of these are not accounted for in the analysis.
I do not claim to know the true vaccine efficacy vs. the Delta variant. However, I am afraid that the current Israeli MoH analysis cannot be used to safely assess it, one way or another.
Here is the press release in Hebrew from the Israeli MoH with details about the analysis. drive.google.com/file/d/1PoPA1C…
And of course efficacy --> effectiveness
(h/t @AvgilMeytal )
(h/t @AvgilMeytal )
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