Populists - voters who are culturally conservative, economically liberal, make up 14% of the electorate. In contrast, Libertarians - voters who are economically conservative, culturally liberal - make up 6% of the electorate.
The percentage of voters who are Strong Conservatives and Strong Liberals are roughly the same percentage of the electorate as Populists are.
The Conservative and Liberal quadrants align heavily with their respective parties, whereas the Libertarian quadrant leans more towards Democrats, and the Populist group is split evenly across party lines.
Clinton won Populists 41%-34% against Trump in 2016. Conservatives had the highest turnout rate at 93%, while Populists had the lowest at 82%.
Trump won Populists 53%-38% against Biden in 2020 - a 19-point increase from his performance among Populists in 2016. Biden also won Liberals by 15 points more than Clinton.
38% of Populists self-identify as ideologically moderate, while 33% identify as conservatives and 19% as liberals.
1 in 5 Strong Liberals self-identify as ideologically moderate, compared to just 1 in 20 Strong Conservatives.
The Liberal and Populist quadrants skew younger, with over half being under 50. 25% of Liberals are between 18 and 29, while the other quadrants only have an 11% share of 18-29 year old's.
Liberals and Populists are the most racially diverse quadrants, with each having around ⅓ non-white voters.
Populists - like Conservatives - list jobs and the economy as the biggest issue facing the country today, whereas Liberals believe the environment/climate change and healthcare are the most important issues.
To determine where voters were on the quadrant, we asked if they agreed more with the liberal or conservative stance on a variety of cultural and economic issues.
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In this month's omnibus, Echelon asked voters whether they trusted Trump or Harris on a range of policy issues and character attributes — and which of those issues and attributes were most important to their vote. 🧵
When it comes to the issues, Trump leads on five while Harris leads on four.
Importantly, Trump leads on the top three issues people say are most important to their vote.
On the other hand, the issues Harris leads on are generally less important to people's votes.
The gap is greater among people who say each of these issues is the most/second most important to their vote.
Among those who say inflation is their most/second most important issue, Trump is trusted more by a 23 point margin.
But among the general population, he only led by 3.
Last month, we asked votes in the likely electorate about neoliberalism. We found some surprisingly large changes from last year!
To test support for neoliberalism, we used eight pairs of statements and asked voters to indicate which one they agreed with more.
Compared to March of 2022 when we tested the same statements, voters were far more favorable to expanding the child tax credit. But they were also far more skeptical of admitting refugees, which saw a similarly large shift in the anti-neoliberal direction.
What if the United States were a multi-party Democracy? In our latest multi-party analysis, we matched registered voters with the following parties: Nationalist (24%), Conservative (18%), Acela (12%), Labor (29%), and Green (8%).
Voters identifying with the Nationalist party platform saw the biggest growth since we last asked the question in June, and the Labor party saw the largest decline in support since then.
The gap between support for the Nationalist party and the Labor party shrank to just 5 points in October after being at 12 points in June.