🧵Where do most American voters fall on the political compass?

Using nine questions on cultural issues and nine questions on economic issues, we mapped voters onto a political compass. Voters agreed with the conservative position on five of the nine cultural questions asked.

Did Americans feel pressure to vote a certain way in the election?

Mostly not.

However, young voters are much more likely than their older counterparts to report feeling pressure to vote a certain way. When it comes to 2024 presidential vote, though, there is not a major divide.

Trump voters are slightly more likely than Harris voters to report feeling pressure by those around them to vote a certain way.

In this month's omnibus, Echelon asked voters whether they trusted Trump or Harris on a range of policy issues and character attributes — and which of those issues and attributes were most important to their vote. 🧵 When it comes to the issues, Trump leads on five while Harris leads on four.

Importantly, Trump leads on the top three issues people say are most important to their vote.

On the other hand, the issues Harris leads on are generally less important to people's votes.

Last month, we asked votes in the likely electorate about neoliberalism. We found some surprisingly large changes from last year! To test support for neoliberalism, we used eight pairs of statements and asked voters to indicate which one they agreed with more.

In our latest Omnibus, we found that 37% of Republican-leaning voters identify as Trump-first, a low not seen since April. Trump and DeSantis are nearly tied for the 2024 primary, with Mike Pence taking third at 9%

What if the United States were a multi-party Democracy? In our latest multi-party analysis, we matched registered voters with the following parties: Nationalist (24%), Conservative (18%), Acela (12%), Labor (29%), and Green (8%). Voters identifying with the Nationalist party platform saw the biggest growth since we last asked the question in June, and the Labor party saw the largest decline in support since then.

In our latest omnibus, Biden’s lead over a potential 2024 challenger narrows to just 7 points in October. VP Kamala Harris holds a clear advantage in a non-Biden Democratic primary field.

In our latest omnibus, we found that 52% of Republicans consider themselves supporters of the Party first. Trump’s advantage over a generic 2024 Republican challenger jumped 9 points in October.

In our latest Omnibus, we found American voters split 44-38 when asked if they hold a favorable or unfavorable view of affirmative action programs for racial minorities. Black voters were the most likely to hold a favorable view of affirmative action, followed by Hispanic and White respondents.

As the 2022 Major League Baseball Playoffs come to a close, we decided to poll voters about their thoughts on the league. 45% of voters say that they are fans of Major League Baseball. The New York Yankees narrowly surpassed the Atlanta Braves as voters’ favorite MLB team.

In our latest Omnibus, we found 6 in 10 voters are at least somewhat confident that the 2020 election was fairly decided, but 70% of Republicans are not so confident. 75% of voters in the likely electorate are confident that their own state will conduct a fair and accurate election in 2022, though Democrats are much more confident than Republicans.

👻 Halloween findings from our latest Omnibus:

The electorate loves Reese’s Cups

Are higher-income voters stingy with how much candy they give out?

Do voters think there is a trick-or-treating age limit?

2022 will be a record breaking midterm election for voter turnout. Echelon Insights predicts a turnout of 125,655,745. Our estimate represents the continuation of a pattern of record-breaking turnout we saw in the 2018 midterms and 2020 general election

echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/ Included with this estimate is a fully interactive district-by-district breakdown of turnout by demographic groups, as well as totals by state. Take a look here at the breakdown for Michigan's 8th district (MI-8) as an example. Make your search here 🔎 echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/

In our September Omnibus, we tested how different partisan messages performed among the likely electorate. After reading a dozen messages from both parties, the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot fell by 4 points. All but one Republican message performed better than every Democratic message, across a range of issues from the economy to education to border security to energy. Read on to see the full messages.

While Donald Trump remains the center of gravity for Republicans in 2024, a growing number of Republican voters associate themselves with the GOP, not the movement of Donald Trump. There is no question that if Trump formally entered the 2024 race, he would have majority support amongst Republican voters.

The Dobbs decision + an increased national focus on SCOTUS got us wondering what Americans think about the Constitution and the many reforms being floated, particularly by Democratic lawmakers. Here’s what we found 🧵

echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/ju… To start, how important is the United States Constitution to your political beliefs? 8 out of 10 voters answered that the document is very or somewhat important.

Since January, Republican and lean-R voters have called for DeSantis to run for President in 2024. More “Party-First” voters think that DeSantis should run for President regardless of Trump’s decision to run.

Full Release 👉 echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/ju… Less than 10% of GOP voters are against Ron DeSantis running for President in 2024, but the party is split on their view of a potential DeSantis run if Trump enters the race.

From our July Omnibus Survey.

Biden’s approval ratings regarding his handling of the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. have climbed one point in July, now at 52%. How personally concerned are you about the chances of you or someone in your family becoming infected with the coronavirus? Concern among registered voters has increased 6 points in July, up to 36% expressing extreme concern.

💸The economy 💳

Middle-income voters say that the current economic situation in the U.S. is worsening by an 8 to 1 margin.

From our July Verified Voter Omnibus out now: echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/ju… More than 4 times as many voters feel less financially secure than they were a year ago (58%) than those who feel more financially secure (13%).

Thinking ahead to 2024? Excitement for the possibility of Biden 2024 and Trump 2024 is….minimal to say the least.

Read more from our July Verified Voter Omnibus Survey: echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/ju… Would you like to see Donald Trump run for President in 2024? The appetite among Republicans for another Trump run is down 5 points from last month.

Let's talk 2022 Midterms. Motivation is key. Democrat and Republican energy around the midterm elections are ticking upward. The real rise though is with Independent voters, a +7 rise from June into July. Some things don’t change. Older voters are significantly more motivated and likely to vote in November.