Anand Sanwal Profile picture
Jul 8, 2021 30 tweets 10 min read Read on X
The VC data bible is out

Our Q2 2021 Venture Report is out and it's 190 pages of data on global venture + Asia, LatAm, Europe and US trends

cbinsights.com/research/repor…

Some key takeaways 👇
2/ 136 new unicorns

in 1 quarter!!!

An absolutely gigantic quarter for unicorn births

Aren't unicorns supposed to be rare?

Quick - someone come up with a new name Image
3/ $156.2B invested in the quarter

The biggest quarter for VC in the history of the universe

Yes - let the bubble takes begin

BTW, I think all those takes are wrong Image
4/ Of course, with global venture increasing, the USA was also up

The first half of the year for the US was a record as well Image
5/ Valuation inflation?

Maybe

But it's competitive out there

The median Series A deal valuation in 2021 sits at $42M Image
6/ There is no hotter sector than FinTech

$30B invested into fintech in the quarter

or 1 of every $5 venture dollars

wild Image
7/ There were 390 venture rounds of $100 million+ in Q2

The "private IPO" is pretty common these days Image
8/ The one big market that saw a funding decline was China which dropped 18% from its all time high

But remember, this is an 18% drop from an all-time high

Tons of innovation and activity still coming out of China

And it will continue to Image
9/ 1.26 deals per working day!!

Yes - that is how fast Tiger Global is making investments

Easily led the pack for most active investor in Q2 Image
10/ The exit environment was also very healthy in Q2 with 2893 exits (M&A and IPOs)

Lots of financial buyers of tech companies + strategics and a healthy SPAC/IPO environment Image
Money is flowing everywhere

While the disruption of Silicon Valley talk is always overblown, there is a gargantuan amount of innovation happening everywhere Image
12/ Lots of rankings and league tables about funding, valuations, exits

Here's the top 10 venture exits of Q2 ImageImage
13/ Here's a look at the largest fintech financings in the quarter

Notice: all outside the USA Image
14/ Of course, AI has had a record setting half year with $31B in funding in H1 2021 Image
15/ Here's the 5 largest AI deals in the quarter

Diverse array of use cases and geos Image
16/ Interestingly, as investors all unicorn hunting, the share of deals to the early stage fell to a 5 year low

Seed investing by the big dogs of venture has generally declined dramatically Image
17/ The @rabois Effect in Miami has yet to show up in the numbers with $711M invested in Miami cos

For comparison's sake, sunny Chicago saw ~$2B invested in the quarter ImageImage
18/ India's venture ecosystem is booming

$6.3B invested in 336 deals

Both $ and deals at a record Image
19/ Europe also saw $ and deal records

Interestingly, early-stage deals in Europe were 69% of total deals

Suggests good things for the future of the European venture ecosystem Image
20/ Here's a look at the biggest financing deals in the UK, Germany and France ImageImageImage
21/ The region with the biggest pop in venture funding was LatAm

$7.2B invested is so much larger than any prior quarter Image
22/ Within LatAm, Mexico and Brazil did very well

Here's the biggest deals in Mexico Image
23/ So in summary, Q2 was a gargantuan quarter

Get the full 190 page report here for free

cbinsights.com/research/repor…

Happy reading
24/ I'm seeing lots of takes that this is like 1999 (the infamous dot com bubble)

This is a quick attention-grabbing take which is likely great for clicks but belies a lack of understanding of 1999 vs now

First, yes there are some things that seem similar

Like what?
25/ Similarities

* lots of $ piling into startups
* everyone (not just VCs) wanted a piece of tech
* tech was top of my mind for media
* some 'silly' companies were getting funded at lofty valuations
26/ Differences

* a lot more enterprise tech/SaaS today vs heavy consumer. It's not eyeball monetization and other nonsense. It's ARR, churn, etc.
* the $ today are going to building product and getting to product-market fit and not racks of servers, colocation facilities, etc
27/ More differences

* The money is increasingly going to perceived winners vs speculative early stage cos. Look at the decline in early-stage in this quarter. It's at a 5 year low. Image
28/ 5% of total rounds are mega-rounds ($100M+) but they account for 58% of $

So when folks do these facile comparisons of 1999 $ to 2021 $, it's like comparing an apple to a lawn mower ImageImage
29/ Venture is more global than ever

It's also a lot less incestuous than '99 when recycling of investor $ among ad tech, ecommerce, hosting cos was the norm

One toppled and we watched the dominoes fall

There was no Asia, LatAm, Europe VC scene then. Now they're huge! Image
30/ Finally, this doesn't mean that there aren't excesses in venture today

Price discipline gone ✔️
Some silly ideas getting $ ✔️
New investor (family offices, HFs/MFs, corps) may be taken for a ride ✔️

All good critiques but let's pls stop with the "It's like 1999" nonsense

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More from @asanwal

Jan 5
🦄🔫🩸

A thread compiling my analyses on dead or injured unicorns Image
Convoy

logistics startup
valuation: $3.6B
raised: $1B

Olive AI

health automation / revenue cycle management
valuation: $4B
raised: $859M

status: dead

Read 8 tweets
Sep 17, 2023
Airtable is probably worth less than the total equity funding it has raised

I'm not talking about the $11.7B valuation it raised at in December 2021

I'm talking about it being worth less than the ~$1.4B+ in financing it has raised

Here's the math/data

Airtable is on track for $150M of ARR in 2023

Per @CBinsights, it was doing $115M in 2021

That's 14%'ish growth per annum

We'll come back to growth in a second

But for right now, that puts Airtable's forward price/revenue multiple at 78x ($11.7B valuation / $150M ARR)

Now, let's compare that price/revenue multiple with publicly traded peers in the broader project mgmt and collaboration space, specifically:

Monday: 12.63x
Asana: 6.61x
SmartSheet: 7.98x

Note: these are not forward multiples but trailing multiples for these companies. And so on a forward basis, the multiples are likely lower

But for the sake of simplicity and to give Airtable the benefit of the higher multiple, we'll use those comps

This would put Airtable's valuation in the neighborhood of

$991 million to $1.89B

Ouch.

That's a 84-92% valuation discount vs that $11.7B val in 2021

Here is where folks will typically argue that the above doesn't consider Airtable's growth

The logic is that Airtable is growing quicker than peers and hence will grow into that valuation and so should command a premium valuation multiple

And therein lies the problem

Once we layer in growth, the picture for Airtable gets worse

Here's YoY revenue growth for the comps

Monday: 68.5%
Asana: 44.6%
SmartSheet: 39.2%

As a reminder, Airtable's growth is ~14%

And here's their trailing revenues:

Monday: $624.8M
Asana: $606.5M
SmartSheet: $711.9M

Airtable: $150M (forward ARR)

So it's public peers are 4x to 5x larger in terms terms of revenue

And they're growing 2.5x to 4.5x faster

Add in a further discount for illiquidity given Airtable is private, the valuation is prob south of $991 million

Asana has the lowest price/revenue multiple of the bunch at 6.61x which is how we arrive at the $991M

Asana is also growing at almost 3x the rate of Airtable off revenue that is 4x larger

It's not hard to imagine that this brings down the multiple of Airtable to 3 to 5x which would equate to a valation of

$450M to $750M

That'd be a discount of 93-96% vs that Dec 2021 valuation

The company is cutting costs and repositioning for profitability which makes sense in this market but given the current likely valuation, all investors after the March 2018 Series B are likely underwater

They're also talking about a future IPO but getting back to anywhere close to that $11.7B valuation would require reigniting massive growth and making that price:revenue to growth ratio look more appealing

As always, if you believe any of my assumptions in the above are incorrect, please comment and I'll update the analysis if the additional context dramatically changes the results





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If you want to go deep on the space, we analyzed @airtable & peers as well as products in the space in Jan 2023

The numbers have evolved a bit but the storyline remains the same.

The massive Airtable equity funding tally was something that caught our eye then as well
If you're a fan of math, you might also like this analysis of Flexport's valuation



#factsoverfeelings
Read 5 tweets
May 6, 2023
Bragging about headcount was 1 of the most corrosive trends in startup land over the last many years

I was guilty of it too

Somehow larger growing headcount became a positive signal of success for companies

When in reality, it may more often than not be a negative signal
If you look at articles about unicorns, you'd rarely see revenue figures but you'd see founders/CEOs bragging about taking the team to 800 by year-end

Fundraising and headcount became 2 false proxies for success

But what are the real negatives of more headcount?
It may be symptomatic of or lead to ("may" is important here)

- indicate lack of focus
- belief that scale comes from ppl not systems
- a lack of focus on culture
- a non-performance driven culture
- execs motivated by empire-building
- excess complexity & slower velocity
Read 5 tweets
May 5, 2023
1/ Attn: If you're in corp dev or with a financial sponsor/PE

This is an amazing time to look for non-core assets within larger cos that they want/need to divest

Today, we saw Shopify unload 2 recent acquisitions to focus on the core

cbinsights.com/research/shopi… Image
2/ @Shopify sold @DeliverrInc to @flexport

Exactly 1 year ago, they bought it for $2.1B

They divested to Flexport for 13% of the co's equity

Based on Flexport's last valuation of $8B, that's a $1.04B valuation

That's a 50% haircut vs 1 year ago

app.cbinsights.com/profiles/c/pPe… Image
3/ Walmart is another example of a co divesting non-core assets

They just divested Bonobos at a loss

Before that they'd divested:

* ModCloth
* Shoes(dot)com
* Moosejaw
* Bare Necessities
* ELOQUII

cbinsights.com/research/walma…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9, 2023
The intense drama about SVB has died down

But the implications on the pvt markets will be felt in coming weeks & months

They will be big for VCs, PE and startups

We’ll dig into what the data says here

First stop - Let’s dig into how debt was being used to prop up valuations
2/ In their Q1’23 update, SVB had a telling line

“Clients continue to opt for debt over raising equity at pressured valuations”

This actually explains quite a bit about private market valuations Image
3/ This was a perplexing pvt market phenomenon

That private market valuations were still holding up even though public market tech valuations had dropped dramatically

And the availability of this debt allowed startups to avoid taking “pressured valuations”
Read 20 tweets
Mar 3, 2023
We bootstrapped @cbinsights by first building a totally different business

It involved hedge funds, too big too fail banks and $100,000 PDFs

For nerds interested in data and information services businesses, you might enjoy this
First, some backstory

My 1st day of freedom from big co employment was Jan 1, 2008

In retrospect, this was comically bad timing given the Great Financial Crisis was abt to happen

But I had no idea
Initially, the idea was to do consulting abt a book I’d written on “Corporate Portfolio Management”

We’d lined up some interested clients and were in the contract process

Had $1M of consulting gigs lined up

Then the mkt tanked

The 1 whale we had was a too big too fail bank
Read 20 tweets

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