The risk of children under 18 developing serious illness or dying from Covid-19 is very slim, said researchers, who found a death rate of 0.005% in England—lower than initially thought wsj.com/articles/in-ch… via @WSJ
Very comprehensive study- can help ease some of the parents' fears about school opening
"studies all related to time periods that predated the emergence of the Delta variant that is now dominant in both the U.K. and the U.S.,.. authors said there was as yet no evidence that the variant causes more severe illness or death among children.". Hope reassuring to you
Hope parents reassured by this largest study & look at the data above. Someone wrote me today saying CDC school guidance coming out tomorrow - we can only hope the CDC consider epidemiology, impact of school closures & acts accordingly nytimes.com/2021/06/08/opi…
Another report on same important paper. I am sure the CDC will take this largest study into account when they release their school guidance tomorrow and understand best ways to keep children safe is adult vax bbc.com/news/health-57…
Here is the original study on deaths (UK children < 18 not offered vaccines as a result of this data) researchsquare.com/article/rs-689…
CDC school guidance released. What I appreciated was that the guidance acknowledged what the US did (more than Europe/UK) was so difficult for children in terms of mental health effects & other disorders and that in-person learning essential. cnb.cx/3r0Pb2E
Didn't acknowledge data from yesterday, all year, low risk of young children; Europe, UK, WHO decide which mitigation strategies needed differentially by age. Each state will tailor. CA Gov recall partially based on CA being 50/50 for in-person learning nytimes.com/2021/06/08/opi…
When looking at COVID hospitalizations/100K to confirm your county has reached metric proposed of <5/100K, use this HHS dataset: lists confirmed COVID hospitalizations (since universal screening, must confirm admission reason). Most US counties at metric protect-public.hhs.gov/datasets/HHSGO…
Wanted to explain one more thing before I go for my break which is the difference between what T cells and antibodies do for you in terms of protecting you against COVID. T cells protect you against severe disease. We have already gone over how variants rupress.org/jem/article/21…
unlikely to evade T cell immunity since 80-100 T cells line up across the spike protein so 10-13 mutations of variants can't evade that many T cells. You have the data in the T cell thread but here are the 2 best papers on this- 1st here biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Here is the 2nd paper on this. Variants can't evade our T cell response so we are protected against severe disease. That is why vaccines 92-100% protective against severe disease in the real-world or the trials variants or not cell.com/cell-reports-m…
Let's be perfectly clear about the delta variant in our reporting, please- this strain is not spreading like wildfire across the US. This strain is spreading in highly unvaccinated regions without natural immunity. Please look at orange map in link below covidactnow.org/?s=2016935
Clear reporting provided here (as always) by @DLeonhardt from the @nytimes in the article below. "In many urban and suburban communities, Covid continues to plummet. The rate of new daily cases has fallen below 3/100,000 residents in large cities like ... nytimes.com/2021/07/07/bri…
Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington.". Since I live in SF, news reporters ask me if our unvax'd children are safe from Covid - I say yes, please look at transmission + vax rates ("wall of immunity")
Why is stressing vaccines work against delta so important? Because they do & because understandably saying they don't is making "anti-vaxxers" say don't take vaccine. I & Dr. Shafir & Dr. Hotez @PeterHotez interviewed for this piece motherjones.com/politics/2021/…
"While the Delta variant is worth taking seriously—it does spread more easily..there isn’t enough evidence that it is deadlier than other strains. Crucially, they emphasized that the vaccines are proving to be powerful tools against Delta and other variants of this virus."
So far, "data also indicates that breakthrough infections, when they happen, tend to be mild or asymptomatic. In a recent study published in the NEJM for instance, researchers followed nearly 4,000 frontline workers for four months beginning in late 2020" nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
"Britain’s recent rise in cases [many due to delta] has yet to be followed by a commensurate rise in hospital admissions or deaths. ..the widespread deployment of vaccines .. has weakened the link between infection and serious illness" so reopening 7/19 nytimes.com/2021/07/02/wor…
Or here is a nice illustration of this effect that vaccines are delinking cases from hospitalizations in the UK from the BBC (which is why following case counts is no longer the reliable metric of subsequent hospitalizations it used to be before vaccines)
J&J VACCINE AND VARIANTS: Wanted to go over paper from yesterday. 19 million worldwide have received 1 dose J&J (including health care workers S. Africa as condition of trial who are seeing a lot of virus right now with high rates community transmission) biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Remember about J&J which is that - in its phase I/II clinical trial, antibody and CD4/CD8 (T cell) responses increased over time. Not that high at 2 weeks (which may account for lesser effectiveness in ENSEMBLE trial when looking at that time point) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Immune response increased over time out to 59 days when phase I/II stopped reporting. So, this study took participants from ENSEMBLE who had received 1 dose J&J (n=8, 47-91 years, 71 days after shot) and exposed their blood (test tube) to variants (alpha, beta, gamma, delta).